bluearmy

Bet we aren’t .......

As I said earlier, whilst we don’t need that ne eps cluster to grow yet, we did need the op to jump across to it tonight or tomorrow ..... and hey presto ......

Yes - it’s better than gfs Last time someone posted day 8 it was just outperforming everything but at hat range nothing is too accurate

Gfsp is interesting if only from the standpoint that it actually doesn’t accelerate the cold pool movement west and corrects marginally east

Story of the ops thus far is the Icelandic upper high - good place to be come day 6 ....

Ukmo day 5 is closer to ecm op with the cold pool but the day 6 chart could have possibilities to our north ..... at the moment the 12z ‘s aren’t quite riding to the coldies rescue ...... EDIT: day 6 could be worse ...... but it isn’t a gfsp copy ......

Suspect we are all in need of some kind of therapy ......... my missus reckons we are all ‘saddos’ ....... I told her to leave me alone whilst i check locomotive numbers .......... i

The 30% is purely my figure from the eps clusters which show a similar evolution to the gfsp

They don’t quote percentages - I was taking that from the cold eps cluster ..... however, now I’ve read it they talk about into December and the eps cluster/gfsp is onset around day 9/11. Not for this thread but their 6/14 day forecast covers the more wintry option

Not completely right but prob more right than the others .......however, past day 5/6, it could well be wrong in other areas .....Exeter recognise that 30% chance of the gfsp being close to the mark ..... would be nice to know where mogreps are ......

The eps control plays out the Atlantic trying to push against blocking to the n/ne ......de bilt is colder than the uk but the uk is right in the battleground with snow line moving south to north (ebbing and flowing). lookign through the gefs gives a decent mean but the individual members are less wonderful (save a few) those predicted euro low heights are proving unreliable ......twas ever thus .......

Possibly but this is such a delicate evolution that I doubt it makes a lot of difference good to see the model being consistent if nothing else going back to the eps cluster, whilst I don’t see it’s important for that 30% to grow, I do think we need the op to at least jump over to it for one run over the next 3 outputs

The percentages are very similar to yesterday’s 12z run ........

Really ?

Looks like a 30% chance on the eps clusters of that proper cold push from the ne the op/control cluster is 43%

people rarely look at the icon in standard times ...... no need to .....who cares if it will be raining or not next Thursday ? the icon is a decent model ....... not the best but certainly not the worst ...... I would put it on a par with the gfs. The gfsp is consistently verifying better than the gfs and will, in a years time, become the new gfs. It makes far more sense to use this model ahead of the gfs

Broken clock ........... it’s not unheard of for it to be top historically but it verifies well down on average for a reason ........ icon 06z picks up a bit of pace wrt the 00z run

There is a facility on meteociel to compare same timescale for all models saves lots of screenshots and uploading day 5 as Steve has posted above ec remains progressive as it has done for many days but it’s broad progressive theme now picked up generally ..... however, it’s likely very wrong at some point and it’s where the progressiveness ends which we need to suss out .........

This one is tight, that one is wrong .....etc etc etc none of them are ever right ....... that’s why we do this ! There can be little doubt that ec op has led the way on any initial attempt to bring deep cold in failing. That’s to do it’s the way it has never been happy to leave the upper low to just dissipate to our advantage and was always progressive in taking it further west and phasing with the trough headed in from the sw. has it been totally correct? No it hasn’t and it still isn’t now. Has it been more correct in respect of what happens to the weather in nw Europe? Yes it has. Anyway, the clusters will reveal later that there is definitely one which brings winter to w Europe days 9/10. How big is unknown but I haven’t noticed it thus far on the model getting this far west. All is not lost ....... still two weeks of autumn left ............ the overall mean pattern establishing for the end of vobember and into winter is one which has been trailed on the seasonals the Atlantic storm track is deflected into w Europe by northern/ n Atlantic blocking in this scenario, the uk will often lie in the broad battleground area ...... that looks like it’s coming for later this month but whether we end with Scotland or Hampshire being closer to the dividing line is the question. Any failure of low heights to our south will affect things and we know how fickle they can be ...... despite the current general malaise, ( which is totally misplaced) you know you will all be back later ............ that’s why your reading this now ................

Very strange set of clusters all the way through ....... time for bed methinks ...... could wake up to just about anything on the nwp!

Not unless you can find the plug hole under the North Sea !

Wouldn’t bother .... look at charts from late feb this year ...... they verified!

It’s the bahaviour of the Icelandic upper ridge later week 2 that’s odd .... Steve is right that the ec op has been progressive ..... the mean has now caught it up though ........... latest icon run has plenty of the variables with notable differences by day 5

Could be a dodgy run ......the upper ridge heads west rather quickly compared to all recent output ........gefs is still strong on the scandi trough and has been so throughout

Not the best of trends from extended eps as the mean lifts the -nao to become a bit west based and lift the Atlantic upper trough extension across the uk, sw/ne expect the clusters to reveal that Atlantic 50% set to be maintained and potentially increased - anyway, despite a transient mean upper ridge headed across day 11 a Euro high doesn’t become established but Mediterranean high anomalys do no doubt that today has seen any likelihood of a notable wintry spell with snowfall before month end recede ...........however, we know that days like today occur and the weekend could see the pendulum swing back again ....what follows the holding pattern days 7/8 remains unclear but by sunday the murk should have cleared