[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Steady snow here in Cheltenham. Real nice surprise. What I don’t understand is why it was never forecast. 

Off to Cleeve Hill soon, where there’s sure to be more. 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Often make the mistake of reading the MOD without looking at the charts. Just looked at the charts which look perfectly ok to me for below average temps and by next weekend signs of a troughs making in roads. Nothing wrong with that. There’s a lot of cold air around so lots to look forward too. 
 

There’s some longevity to this. 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

32 minutes ago, irish1 said:

Track of storm firmly South now, chances of frontal snow look to have faded away but will help keep the cold locked in.

Yes. If you following these storms during the hurricane season in the Caribbean, it is always the High Pressure ridges which direct the storms. The strength of the -NAO is steering this one South. 

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

15 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:

We had a real good cold spell modelled in back in Jan 2016 before a hurricane popped up out of nowhere and ruined it all. In the space of 48 hours we went from Scandi / Greenie heights, -8°c uppers and snow symbols in a 5 day forecast to Med heights, mobile Atlantic and 5 day forecasts showing 10°c and rain. 

I'm not going to make a call just yet and say this'll happen again. I also agree it'll be interesting seeing how it evolves, however, it's probably a good idea to prepare for some very disappointing runs in the coming days. This will give life to the Atlantic, the next few days we'll see to what extent, but I am concerned.

Looks like it’s just going to sit out in the Atlantic and spin around. No jet stream  and the steering pattern should be the  High. It’s going to be an interesting watch. 

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Well, here it is. Wasn’t there yesterday. 
Going to be fascinating how a tropical system interacts with this artic air. 

Never seen anything like this. It’ll be worth watching.

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

4 minutes ago, Howie said:

This is getting a bit ridiculous now, I'm really scratching my head as to how this is even possible 

Yes. There’s nothing on the National Hurricane Centre website showing this tropical development in the Atlantic. Even though it’s now outside Hurricane season they would include this in their graphics. Hmm 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

Most of us should know by now, ECM rarely verifies beyond 168hours. Pretty much ignore anything after that particularly in the current unusual Synoptics. 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

1 hour ago, That ECM said:

People keep saying that there’s a lot of ramping going on. How I fully expect to watch my lad at football next weekend.

Lovely. Remember watching my Bristol City away to West Brom one Boxing Day years ago. Snow on the pitch, cleared the lines with a spade and an orange ball. Those were the days 

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

41 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Good afternoon all,Just a quick blog I will be back later Met Office going for substantial upgrades from 20November onwards still with some uncertainty Snow possibly on the way too,check it out worth a read.

Thought I check it out and yep, winters coming 

[Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

You can tell, times are a changing. Years ago most leaves were down by bonfire night and I can remember we used leaves to stuff the guy Fawkes. 

There’s no change to daylight hours so the delay in leaf fall has to be temperature. 
 

This year I would say most trees still have 50% of their leaves.

So a late start to winter seems to be the norm in 21st century.

[Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond]

Anybody know what happened re todays forecast for Cheltenham? 
 

last night forecast was mainly dry. Clerk of the course decides to water and then from 10.00 am it started to rain and it’s still raining. 
 

v strange forecast

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

4 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I notice on the Met Office forecast for Doncaster that have have dropped the highest gusts from 63-65 to 55-56 and moved them 2 hours later. This is probably a decent guide for how winds in other areas may decrease over the initial predictions, 5-10 mph lower than the warnings perhaps?

The centre is in the process of becoming one again and likely to be just off the NE coast by 1200. The strongest winds, away from the south coast will be from about NW, on the south coast, initially wsw-w becoming nw.

Wonder whether this has anything to do with the storm coming on shore and no Atlantic to fuel it, similar to tropical storms. 

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

10 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Not sure how some on here would cope in Singapore It’s quite intense at first but you do get used it quite quickly if you’re there for more than a few days

Lived in Antigua for 3 years. Shorts, T Shirts and flip flops and Air Conditioned office. Whats not to like about that ? Warm evenings and tropical breeze. I'll take that any day. 

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

ECM 
 

From 144 onwards, a much more seasonal look to things. A welcome change. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

It’s 2c, grey and feels like it’s going to snow ! 

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

1 minute ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Gfs 6z reminds me of the 70s as a kid

Mild rain then cold frosty for a week or 2 and dry then bang wake up with thick snow

Yes, definitely has a feel of winter’s past. 

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

Still -2 outside and frosty. We’ve had this most of the week. Proper winter weather and the outlook shows more of the same. Should be interesting mid winter model watching. Bring it on.  

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022]

1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:

One thing that fascinates me this Winter is the depth of cold to our North. Even the slightest Northerly is immediately bringing us into -8 type uppers!! This hasn't been the case for many years with Northerlys lacking bite...

I think it's only a matter of time that a full on Northerly will bring us some real cold conditions

Yes. Sea ice around Svalbard is 10% up on the 1990-2020 long term average. Haven’t seen that for a long time. 

[Model output discussion - Christmas approaches]

For everyone having a bit of a meltdown please remember these charts change every 6 hours and we are still over a week away from Christmas. Charts rarely verify 168 - 192 hours away. 
 

Plus, take a look at the METO update this afternoon.

[Model output discussion - Christmas approaches]

28 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The Exeter update up to the New Year is an upgrade. No mention of mild and fronts only affecting the south/south west. 

Yes, I see it’s just updated and a big upgrade from yesterday, incl ref to wintriness during Jan. Lovely jubbly 

[Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives]

2 hours ago, Staffmoorlands said:

If I was a bookie I would put the odds at 100/1 

Edinburgh 3/1 Fav 

[Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives]

1 hour ago, Nick F said:

GFS certainly persistent in trying to build heights NE over Scandi in the medium-long range. EPS cluster support  beyond day 10 for height rises to our NE too and trough over Europe.

A good deal of uncertainty with regards to MJO progression, gets to P6 but will it make to P7. EC just about gets there, coming more round to the idea of colder phases than previous days. Often it is too mute with the signal, even in La Nina when the signal can be weak.

Next weekend could see height rises in the GIN corridor then perhaps extending into Scandi. The models may try to sink the block too quickly IMO and bring in zonality after day 10. Be wary of that. But that's not to say it won't happen and we end up on a stormy westerly path to mid-Dec.

Is all that cold air in Scandi helping to promote a Scandi block ? 

[Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives]

Haven’t seen a proper Scandi High for years. When would have been the last time I wonder?

Scandi highs and undercutting lows are a winter dream.

I recall in the early 80’s plenty of these in Bristol/Glos area and lots of snow days.

[Model output discussion - closing in on Winter]

Have people noticed that the temperatures around Bering Straits, Northen Scandinavia are significantly lower this year compared to recent years. -25 in lapland, Finland and a cold week ahead. Norway Sea Ice quoted today that the Svalbard sea ice 319,267Sq km, approx 10% greater than the 1991-2020 average. 

There is some deep cold developing up there compared to recent years which could have an impact of our weather when the synoptics fall into place which they appear to be doing. 

[Hurricane season 2021]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

It looks like this hurricane season has died early.

Surprised really, as we move into a LaNina. This usually means a lot of activity. The season runs until 30th Nov and expect there to be a couple more named storms.