Cleeve Hill
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Posts posted by Cleeve Hill
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1 minute ago, sausage said:
is anyone else starting to worry about this coming to nothing or is it just me? the models are just not cutting it for me. 10 days plus i cannot get excited anymore about regardless of a ssw from previous experiences. the meto might look ace but theyd rather mild weather so wud never apolagise for flipping their forecasts to mild!!
on another note why are we gettong rain from systems rather than snow like france. surely the stupid nose of the azores wud also pump milder air ahead of it across france too. the models look full of sbow potential but never materalises! this weeks cold spell that we all foolishly got excited about has produced nothing decent in terms of snow or that cold whatso ever!!
It’s just you ! The next 3/4 weeks is what most on net weather look forward to.
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Keep the faith folks. Its still on the cards !
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Temp forecasts for Oslo, Stockholm, Moscow & Copenhagen all heading colder towards end of next week, suggesting a pressure rises in that area.
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For those that follow joe bastardi on twitter, he is pretty bullish about a v cold feb somewhere in the N hemisphere. He’s talking about MJO groing into 8,1,2,3 during February. Also M Ventrice showing GEFS going strongly negative NAO into Feb, although ECM not supporting this.
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But isn’t the GFS 18 showing snow for Sunday from N Wales to the east Anglia ? Is this happens it would be the 3rd or 4th snow event this winter, which ain’t bad.
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5 minutes ago, Dean E said:
GFS continuing to toy the idea with extensive Northerly blocking and a possible Greenland High?
With a drop in zonal winds forecast and ridging into Greenland being discussed by Cohen & Ventrice this looks like the form horse to me.
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https://mobile.twitter.com/DrAHButler/status/950120680636538880/photo/1
Looks like those zonal winds will be dropping considerably later this month. Ties is with GP, Tamara & Catacols ideas.
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4 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:
But I'm sure I read somewhere that it's expected to be a 'front loaded' Winter for us, so if that's the case, time is ticking fast on our chance of snow again this season, mid January will be mid Winter in terms of 'weather seasons' anyway
That is the norm for a La Nina winter (you could say the cold spell in first week of Dec reflected that) but its not as straightforward as this, and there are now expectations of colder spells Jan & Feb.
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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
I hope that's not to do with the last two fi gfs runs ......
back to the 18z and assume that the blocking will be a bit stronger than showing ....... as I said earlier, could still be interesting in the longer term
Don't think so. It was MJO related
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34 minutes ago, Matthew Gill said:
Good old gfs. Really deepening that low by Greenland.
Funny that, as there's a lot of chatter about a Greenland high coming. Source: J Cohen & M Ventrice on Twitter. Pretty reliable sources.
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Temperature at 1c now and getting icy out there. Expecting - 3 - 4 tonight. Still lots of snow around and cleeve hill hasn't lost any of its snow today. Plenty of fun to be had up there !
2 snow events in 2 weeks. With a La Niña year, a front loaded winter is the form horse so no complaints from me.
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Cheltenham usually does well in snowy situations. We had about 5cm in bishops cleeve but cleeve Hill 7-8cm. It’s turned v slushy in the village but with a freeze due tonight and a sunny start tomorrow cleeve hill will be wonderful.
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Cheltenham. 4c raining.
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Healthy looking Alaska ridge heading to the pole. Whats the chances for that moving towards Greenland ? The vortex splits nicely on this image to say it could happen.
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First the Ramp - Snowy in Cheltenham where two main A roads were closed as too dangerous. The A 40 Cheltenham - Oxford road pretty much a no go zone. Lots of lovely snow.
Rant - No sign of any gritters or ploughs clearing the A40. These are main roads so love to know what Local Authorities have to say.
Moan - Unable to drive to Oxford. Took the wife 12 hours to get from Gatwick to Cheltenham. Combination of snowy M40 and abandoned cars, train delays from Oxford to Reading, and delays & crowded trains from Reading to Cheltenham.
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For those on Twitter, have a read of the winter forecast by griteater. It a u.s forecast but it's an interesting read nonetheless.
Suggests a number of -AO/NAO phases, and a cheeky reference to 1962/3.
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I'm predicting another winter of 27 c - 28 c here in Antigua with lots of warm sunshine for all the folk from north America and Europe to enjoy. Antigua avoided the big hurricanes of IRMA & MARIA and very much open for business.
With BVI, St Maarten & Anguilla seriously damage we hope Antigua will have a bumper season.
Back in the UK over xmas, so a 09/10 winter please. La Nina in our favour this time.
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For the satellite on Maria see the link under,
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/anim_radar_guad_mf_com.html
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8 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:
Thanks for the info. I've been watching this system since it first appeared and everything about it filled me with dread. Thing is, I'm not even that knowledgeable about meteorology, but this year with Harvey, Irma and now Maria they just looked "wrong" if you know what I mean. Jose didn't give me that gut feeling. I have friends in Florida, one still without power since Irma, and I was begging them to get out of Florida while Irma was a Cat 3 in the mid Atlantic. My friend in Tampa assured me Irma was hitting the wrong coast... and then it moved further west each day... sigh. Maria has that westerly "feel" to it as well and I can't say why. As I said, I know very little about weather systems, I just watch them avidly so all of this is just uninformed opinion... but Maria still "feels wrong".
Maria is likely to miss the US mainland due to Jose helping to pull Maria North in a few days. No guarantee but that the current thinking. Depends on how quickly Jose fizzles out and a large High Pressure ridge building in the Mid West. The longer Jose hangs around the better for the US, but then Bermuda comes into view.
What a year !
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Hurricane David resulted in 75% of Dominicans becoming Homeless.
Maria is a small Hurricane but so intense. Hurricane winds are only 15 miles from the centre. Sadly Dominica is 30 Long so Maria is going to cover the entire island.
After Dominica its onto US VI & Puerto Rico. P.R have never had a Cat 5 Hurricane.
Antigua has been spared again - just windy outside - reminds me of rough night back home in Cheltenham,
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Oh NO, yet again. This one seems to be forming so quickly that a lot of people in the Caribbean will be unaware.
I thought this was going to stay south (St Lucia, Grenada, Dominica) but the track now is more towards the Northern Leewards, where it is least welcome. Forecast to be Tropical Storm tomorrow and then a Hurricane Tues AM around Antigua. We can cope with a CAT 1 or 2 but really dont want to see a major hurricane again.
With a ridge developing across the US mid week I can see this system being steered into US mainland and no out to sea.
What is unclear with this Hurricane develop into a CAT 3 or above ?
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Oh NO, yet again. This one seems to be forming so quickly that a lot of people in the Caribbean will be unaware.
I thought this was going to stay south (St Lucia, Grenada, Dominica) but the track now is more towards the Northern Leewards, where it is least welcome. Forecast to be Tropical Storm tomorrow and then a Hurricane Tues AM around Antigua. We can cope with a CAT 1 or 2 but really dont want to see a major hurricane again.
With a ridge developing across the US mid week I can see this system being steered into US mainland and no out to sea.
What is unclear with this Hurricane develop into a CAT 3 or above ?
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It's has taken a while for power to be restored and proper wifi connectivity here in Antigua, but we're now back to normal.
Looking back at some posts on here and also the local 3 hourly Irma forecasts Antigua was so so lucky. We were following the latitude plots every bulletin and when it got to 17.2 with 5 hours before its nearest point we thought the storm was going to go north of Antigua. Antigua is 17.1 and at its closest point it was 17.4 so we had sustained winds of 85mph and gusts in excess of 100mph for about 2 hours between 1.00 - 3.00 am. The noise of the wind is amazing as it's hit the metal roofs.
Barbuda however is 35 miles away and took the eye of Irma at sustained winds of 185 mph ! And gusts to 200. In fact all of the wind instruments were destroyed. Barbuda was devastated and everyone has been evacuated to Antigua. 2000 people are now being housed in 2 large centres and sadly all they have is the clothes on their backs.
The rebuild of Barbuda will be possible but consider the logistics. 90% uninsured so who pays the costs of rebuild (government will need loans which it will struggle to repay), logistics of getting materials to the island. It's virtually impossible.
Then look at st Maarten, Anguilla & BVI. Talking to someone in the BVI they say yacht marina industry has been destroyed.
Hopefully that is it for 2017, but with 7/8 weeks to go I suspect there is more to come.
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8 minutes ago, Iceberg said:
Recon have found solid high end cat 4 in the se quad.
Cat 5 def.
Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
Iceberg - I really fear for local people here - a high % live in these properties. There are 90,000 people here. This is becoming very serious in Antigua. We just hope the storm with veer north and we do not get the eye over Antigua.
Atlantic hurricane season/invest thread
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted
Interesting comments. I'll follow this thread over the next 6 months and hoping those Majors avoid the Caribbean Islands. The Economic loss for these small island threatens so many businesses and people. St Maarten, Anguilla, BVI, Dominica are still struggling to cope. Puerto Rico is worse but I dont know what the latest is there.
We are a leading property insurer, based in Antigua and a quiet year would suit everyone or if there are going to happen lets see them keep south i.e Barbados, St Lucia.