damianslaw
-
Posts
17,549 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
86
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by damianslaw
-
-
The level of plant growth is exceptional this year, can see everything responding to this deluge, cool, persistant rain suits the plants fine.
-
7
-
-
Keep looking at the radar and need to zoom in as close as possible to make out location of places. Its not a radar image synonymous with late May, but as said not exceptional.
-
5
-
-
Any forecasts for summer welcomed.
-
A very uncertain outlook, lots of volatily between different runs, fine balanced battle between atlantic trough and heights to the east and north.
Today's low feature popped up at a short notice taking an unusual path, I recall the models were suggesting a westerly flow at this timeframe a few days ago, instead we have a cyclonic one.
Expect more sudden short term developments scuppering medium range modelling. This is always a tricky time of year to predict more than a few days ahead.
-
2
-
-
severe snowstorm A saving grace its a Wednesday and decided to arrive before the Bank Holiday weekend.
-
7
-
-
A very unpleasant scene outside now, bursts of moderate to heavy rain on and off, very low cloud and low light, temp a cool 13 degrees. This is an unusual set up, but sadly more likely in late Spring than any other time of year, low pressure systems have a propensity to take unusual paths now, given how weak the jet usually is and likelihood of northern blocking.
It doesn't feel like the 22 May..May 2024 will go down as exceptionally mixed and quite interesting really.
-
8
-
-
Not expecting alot of change in the days ahead, cooler maxes cancelled out by mild minima. High chance will finish in the 14s, a consistently very mild month, but also very mixed.
-
2
-
-
A non-descript day, lots of cloud and little else to say.
-
6
-
-
Whilst we do appear to be in an unprecedented warm period, the key factors appear to be exceptionally warm SSTs, El Nino affect, possible solar energy and the simple fact we've had very little in the way of airstreams from between NW and east. Indeed a high SW and S airstream anomaly thanks to trough bring limpet to our SW alot of the time. Scandi has had a cold period conversely, no surprise its been very warm in such circumstances. First half of Dec 2022, end of Nov and early Dec just gone shows we can still achieve below average temps its just they've not been able to compete for long.
-
Scuba steve Caught the edge of that here, just a shortlived rain. I was in Keswick today, UK hotspot 23.2 degrees.
-
6
-
1
-
-
Quiet in here for a Sunday morning, alas, mmm its a mixed outlook. Wed-Thurs could be very wet in many places as a deepening trough/low pressure anchors down over the UK heading unusually from east to west, the north could be very cool and quite a shock after recent warmth
As we head into the bank holiday, a degree of uncertainty, the atlantic looks like influencing things, with possible further trough development/disruption squeezed between heights to the SW and NE, not a great place to be, equally if such heights orientate towards each other we may escape the vagaries of atlantic troughing. Need to watch developments.
-
4
-
-
A cracking start to Sunday, everyone in early summer mode it seems, I said mid May brings a sudden marked change in feel, we shift into early summer state. Sunshine as strong as mid July by the end of the month.
Sunny and warm here, current temp 18.6 degrees. Keswick at 20 already, Cumbria could be the hotspot again.
Possible shower this afternoon.
Outlook is mixed, by mid week could be very wet, and signal the atlantic may break through over bank holiday weekend. Hope people are making the most of the weekend if they can.
Warm and mixed is how May 2024 will be described.
-
7
-
-
Cumbria, England's hotspot today, not unusual when there is a light NE drift under a ridge. Carlisle hit 23.5 degrees, it is still 21 degrees here now, a lovely fine summer Saturday eve. Who needs 30 degrees, such conditions suit me just fine.
May is my favourite month and current conditions are the reason why, it is a great time of year, with the promise of summer around the corner, and conditions comfortable for outdoor activities, everything growing, fresh green, late spring colour. Wonderful..
Tomorrow a carbon copy likely, I'll say it now in overall feel, 2024 will do well to produce a better Saturday in many respects.
-
9
-
-
Heading very fast into the 'lightest time of the year'.. those long twilight skies.
-
1
-
-
Scorcher Indeed max temps have been on a par level to a decent June. However, whilst it may end up the second warmest on record, it will probably rank far lower than the likes of 92 and 18 and 20 by many on account of the wetter episodes and cloudier skies. Mind for N Scotland this May has been a classic so far.
-
1
-
-
Don There was a definate change during the very wet summer of 2007, something was stirring, the shift to a southerly jet was notable on the back of a very warm 12 month period and a run of very good / good summers.
Whilst winter 07-08 was very mild, the following summer followed suit. Interested to know the dynamics behind the change in summer 07.
Perhaps need to look for similiar signs to see a step change from the anamalous warmth we are enduring.
I can't see Summer 24 being anything but warmer than average, quite probably at least a degree. However, I'm not foreseeing a notably dry one, but also nothing too wet a la July 2023.
-
2
-
-
LetItSnow! I think El Nino has had a major affect on SST values which have been running high for 2 years now. This has had an impact on baseline position, we appear to be starting from a base state 1-2 degrees above the average, hence, we've not needed very special warm uppers to produce very high mean temps. The added warmth appears to have produced far more cloud than usual which has acted as a blanket at night trapping the warmth as well.
How long can we sustain such warmth?
-
PennineMark Fully agree, we are in peak best outdoor activity season, temps ideal, and usually more settled than July onwards, without the heat and humidity.
Today may end up being rather dull, the cloud is thick and quite low, nothing to shift it. There is a weak front still draped over us, but it has produced no precipitation.
-
7
-
-
As I anticipated, Cumbria appears to be best placed today for dryness, well, in terms of escaping the frontal feature plaguing southern parts of the region at least. Just a light shower so far today, may be an odd rogue one this afternoon
Outlook quite decent as well, for the Lake District dry days on the trot are par for the course April and May, but sadly become less likely late June onwards. Ive said before now is the time to visit, late April to late June window.
-
8
-
-
Scorcher Dull and very wet indeed.
-
1
-
-
Yesterday's 12zECM showed a trough of low pressure over the UK, today it has high pressure to the north and the trough further to the SW. GFS is quite different. Mmm reliable timeframes quite short at present, non the wiser how the latter part of May will pan out.
-
3
-
-
BlueSkies_do_I_see I hope July and August don't see us bump back down to earth as happened last year, a month will break the cycle at some stage, July did it nearly last year, Dec 22 more certainly so. In 2007, it was the summer that broke the warm cycle.
-
Frigid The difference is the lack of robust anticyclonic conditions so far, radiation cooling took place in 2018 and 2020 thanks to the clear and more importantly very dry air. The airmass so far this May has been far more humid with high lapse rates, hence the warm nights. It does indeed feel more akin to June.
Scorcher The airflow is from a warm continental source taking a long course through the North Sea, unusual synoptics.
-
2
-
-
Not too bad a day overall, we've escaped the heavier showers, indeed just a couple of light ones. Bright rather than sunny.
Tomorrow could see the far north of the region staying mainly dry, compared to much of the region, we shall see.
Just watched NW news, 'warm and wet' typical for May was the remark, hardly, it with April on average are our driest months. August is warm and wet..
-
6
-
Summer rainfall stats england and wales
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by damianslaw
Just noting the reference in chelsea flower show to expect warm and dry summer.. has me wondering how wet the summers have been in England and Wales since 2010. I suspect 2010, 2013, 2018, 2022 and possibly 2021 were drier than the 91-00 average.. but many have been wetter.
Might the warmer atmosphere and SST values simply mean wetter seasons all round? Last 11 months case in point..
Anyone share the stats.