damianslaw
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Posts posted by damianslaw
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reef What was summer 98? Transition to strong la nina..
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LetItSnow! Yes having a feeling 2024 could end up in the warm and very wet category, 1998 just keeps springing to mind.. I hope not, but just not feeling this year at all.
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Summers 09 and 10 were quite ok overall here, and far better than the 2 that preceded and followed them, but marked against the 03-06 summers and 13-14, summers were below par. 2009 and 2010 seems an age ago now, the weather was far more interesting than the incessant gloomy mild muck we see these days by and large.
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Its turned into a continously wet end to the day here, I thought there may be a window of dry before sunset but alas a wet drab end to a poor Easter Monday. Felt like someone turned the music off at 10pm this easter weekend, just when the party getting into full swing.. 'come on you've had your little bit of fun (dry weather!) now get back to normal', or the equivalent of an extended lunch break, 'now back to work'... what we all need is a proper break!
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WYorksWeather There is a first 20 and 25 degree thread, it would be appropriate to use that thread to discuss likelihood of 20 degree isotherm etc in conjunction with predicting high temperatures.
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LetItSnow! In a weather rut, possibly a combo of the anomalous warm SSTs and waning El Nino. Hardly any variation from the westerly to southerly airmasses. Not sure what will shake us out of it, but a change will come, it always does, and usually when least expected!
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sunny_vale London forecast 18 on Saturday, somewhere might get close to 20 degrees, but the warmth could easily be slightly further east and just miss the UK shore, the low pressure to the west is forecast to be deep and could encroach further east, the momentum is eastward rather than going north.
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Hooray April is here, marking the start of the 'lighter' half of the year, and here at least the 'sunnier' half of the year, though March can give September a run for its money sunshine wise.
It doesn't though, surprisingly, mark the start of the drier or warmer half of the year from a lakeland perspective, February believe it or not marks start of drier half, and we have to wait until May to enter the warmer half of the year. Taking all this into account, clearly May, June and July are the best months of the year here, each are in the warmer, sunnier, lighter and drier half of the year. August marks the start of the 'wet season'... Nov, Dec and Jan the worse if you are not of a wet, dull, dark, cold persuasion.
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Commenting on high temp likelihood in April.. given we have extremely wet soil content and surfaces this year, will be hard pushed to achieve max temp on record, but who knows. All conjecture I guess.
Back to the models, very unsettled in a word and not what many want given quite a few people are wanting to enjoy the outdoors this week thanks to easter school holidays.
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Ratings for the Easter 4 day period as a whole, 6 out of 10..Not bad, but nothing special, though better than I was anticipating earlier on last week.
Saturday probably just inched out Sunday as best day, though slightly cooler, it was sunnier. Both were dry days.
Good Friday in third place, a decent morning, the heavy showers took their time to arrive, not until mid afternoon, but a thoroughly wet few hours thereafter.
Today the worse of the 4, a drizzly morning, persistant moderate rain early afternoon onwards, only now showing signs of petering out, making for early getaways home for many. A cold day as well.
The outlook for the foreseeable is unappealing, lots of rain and overcast skies, limited sunshine, the dreaded SW wind will prevail, oh at least it will be mild, fuelling moisture and low cloud formation. I thought we might anchor ourself on the colder side of the jet with strong heights to our NW, alas the pesky azores/euro heights are nosing their way in, locking the trough in place to our west/sw for what seems an eternity now.. can we change the record that has been on replay since late June with only limited breaks..
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Looking at the radar its a sea of blue over the region, but mostly very light blue, which is equating to just cloudy skies. Indeed high level cloud, with just a spit of rain in the air.
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In Absence of True Seasons Perhaps from a London perspective, on average April is far more settled than October in the Lake District, many a year it is our driest month, whilst October can be and often is the wettest. April marks the start of our mini dry season that implodes by the summer solstice. A wet April bodes very bad for here. We've had bone dry April's but never a bone dry October.
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I'm not saying 2024 will verify in the same way 1998 did, but there has been an uncanny resemblance to 1997-98 since November. Look away at April 98 it was a low pressure fest from start to finish of a cold variety, but things did break at the start of May.. we had seen a very wet period since June 97 every bit comparable to the last 9 months. big El Nino year as well..
Big el nino years are synonymous with deep troughs just to our west, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16 good examples.
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Interesting to note the recently very mild Aprils in top 6, 2011, 2007, 2020 and 1987 all were followed by poor wet second halves to the summer.
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summer blizzard 1995 produced a plume or two in Spring, notably early May.
The heat around 18/19 April 2018 was a plume I think.
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Summer8906 2024 unlikely yo ho down as poor as was looking earlier in the week..Many are seeimg 2 dry days with temps a little above average and some sunshine..Certainly been many worse.
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B87 1983 saw a poor May I think.. 1995 was episodic, 2006 sort of fits the bill but a month of two halves, and it came on the back of a very dry winter, 2018 probably the best fit, winter 17-18 wasn't all that wet though.
2013 the dry warm theme arrived in July not May.
Very few recent examples really.
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A very chilly and wet month from memory until the very end. Early on was notably cold with snow on the fells, there were very heavy thundery outbreaks at times. Coming on the back of the cold frosty April, spring certainly felt stunted that year. Coldest since 1996.
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After yesterday's very good early Spring day - ideal walking conditions! Today so far has been more of the same and a touch warmer to boot. Hope everyone is making the most of the good weather this weekend if you can, tomorrow now set to be the poorest of the 4 days, and next week as a whole for April very poor indeed..
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Another milder than average month. 9.6 degrees. The start looks milder than at first forecast, a lot of mild minima. A rather wet month as well, but expecting at least one decent dry spell at some point. Could be a shot or two of cold from the north as well.
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KTtom Yes the synoptic we've seen most of since October. A bit of a negative west based NAO which just throws up rain and mild air to our shores, whilst to our NE a cold pool holds sway, advects into north atlantic firing up low and low after which come unstuck to our SW thanks to heights to our SE. If holds through late spring and summer, oh dear what a poor prospect.
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My prediction of 2 decent days and 2 average looks very plausible. and the best combo Sat and Sun look set to be the decent ones. By the end of Monday given how unsettled its been, many I suspect won't be grumbling about how easter panned out. A weather fine window just in time for easter, the wind and rain back on Tuesday. We've struck lucky.
With that a day for the fells I feel!
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kold weather 2018 spring was one of two halves, first half cold and wet, second half warm and very dry, not one to class as wet overall.
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A very showery late afternoon and evening so far, not very spring like. Tiring of this damp feeling.
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UK Rain Is There Any Sign Of It Ending?
in Spring Weather Discussion
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Daniel* March 95 indeed brought a notable flip after a prolonged atlantic dominated spell since Summer 92..Winter 94-95 was one of the wettest on record. It ushered in the driest 24 months on record, beating 75-76. A flip to very wet quickly resumed May 97 onwards through to about winter 02-03 when we entered a fairly dry phase culminating in the very dry Nov 05 to July 06 period. Autumn 06 flipped to very wet culminating in the very wet Nov 09, then a flip to very dry, culminating in the very dry April of 2011, and a wet period ensued again...