damianslaw
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Posts posted by damianslaw
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Mmm net weather you have two very contradictory monthly forecasts for September.
i.e. Your autumn forecast is progging a below average CET for September and Ian Simpsons september forecast is going for a mild month...
Which to believe? Why are they not singing from the same hymn book as such, it is making a mockery of the level of trust put in your forecasts..
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If June could get close to 18.0C in the 1800s, regardless of uncertainty, it's a practical certainty that given the right synoptics, it could reach 18C nowadays.
I prefer to stick with the meteorological definitions, but if I define "winter" as the period of relatively reliable, potentially lasting snow events, summer as the period when temperatures usually reach at least 17-18C in the North East, and autumn and spring as anything in between, I get the following:
Winter- 16 December to 5 March
Spring- 6 March to 31 May
Summer- 1 June to 15 September
Autumn- 16 September to 15 December
I continued winter into March because of the recent snowy beginnings to March in 2001, 2004, 2005 and 2006 in the North East, and to a lesser extent 2000. There were also some back in the 1990s (1990, 1993, 1995, 1998, and to a lesser extent 1999)
I said yesterday in a thread that i generally use the equniox/solstice dates as the boundary between each new season, however after further thinking I very much agree with your definition, especially as I also live in the north east.
Definately the first two weeks of March belong to winter, in recent years this period has been more often than not marked by winter conditions. Although early June can feel spring like still rather than summer, it is just too light and the sun too strong to put it into the spring category, so okay i agree that June should be classed as summer, though I never expect summery conditions to really develop until middle of the month. September yes spot on the first two weeks often bring very settled dry and pleasant conditions ( a la this year ...) not something you associate with autumn, also if we have had a hot august the heat tends to stick around during the first two weeks of september.
Autumn yes i would definately stretch into the first two weeks of december, although it is nearly the darkest period of the year, it is often associated with unsettled mild south westerly airstreams rather than cold wintry weather, though there is often a very sudden change mid month.
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I don't pay any real attention to long range forecasts, take this years Met office forecast for this summer one of the hottest likely on record! what a load of rubbish, yes sometimes they do get it right like winter 05/06 (though even then it didn't quite turn out as cold as first anticipated)...
This summer is a real lesson too many who take long range forecasts as gospel......, the safe option for winter today will always be to forecast another mild one, just like a warm one for summer...
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Yes very refreshing to see both 2 months back to back below average CET and more so a season below average, even though only slightly it gives me much hope that we may see a below average winter in the near future, the one season where I really do wish we will see a below average CET again, hopefully this summer is a good omen for this winter but that is just wishful thinking... i.e. when did we last record both a below average summer and winter back to back (i.e. summer first then winter) probably not since 1986 I think?, though 1993 was close? Anybody confirm this?
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It was a pretty unimpressive summer here really, cool maxima but the average was held up by the minima as a result of cloud moving in almost every night. In fact, only one single day recorded a minima below 10C in the whole of July and August.
Summers of the last 15 years here from warmest to coolest:
2006: 17.8°C
2003: 17.3°C
2005: 16.9°C
1995: 16.4°C
2004: 16.2°C
1994: 16.2°C
2007: 16.1°C
1997: 16.1°C
2002: 16.0°C
2001: 15.9°C
1999: 15.8°C
1996: 15.8°C
2000: 15.4°C
1998: 15.3°C
1993: 14.6°C
What was remarkable though was the lack of high maxima, the top reading this year so far is only 24.1°C. Even summer 1988 recorded a maxima of 25.8°C on the 6th August.
Yes your last point is the most remarkable statistic for the summer the exceptionally woeful maximum temperature that many have recorded. Other than the contested 30 degrees that Newcastle supposedly achieved on the 3 o 4th august can't quite remember here in Newcastle we never saw anything above 24 degrees!!! very very poor indeed.
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I would love to predict a below average CET the third in a row, however I am going to play cautious and say 13.9, only slightly above.
As many have stated it will be the night minima particularly earlier in the month which will have a great bearing on ensuring that we don't record a moderately above CET. I don't think we have any chance of recording a record breaking CET or even a high CET.
I expect a fairly dry month, and as normal conditions likely to break down around the autumn equinox. It is going to be a very pleasant month all round and very seasonal just how I like September to be. We will get the dry suny pleasant days but the early morning mists and dew will make for that autumnal feel.. Ooh I can't wait the descent into autumnal mellowness starts soon...
The most important thing longer term is that it will not be a month dominated by low pressure, mother nature has a habit of balancing herself out and I think the autumn on the whole will be quite dry helping to allieviate the real fear of further widespread catastrophic flooding..
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Yes 2 months on the trot below the CET average, this month feels very different to last year's august yet both will record very similiar CET values, i didn't expect this august to do what it has, i thought last year's was just a blip. Its typical that our most recent below average CET months have fallen in part in the summer months..
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The Met Office forecast is interesting.
If they are correct with their High Pressure to the west prediction (and its possible they will be as it has tended to be there most of the summer) then I would expect the signal to be dryish especially in the west, coolish - a NW feed won't be warm and the high may link with a greenland high at some point giving a proper Northerly - most likely in October if history is anything to go by. There is the inference that fog may be more of a problem later in the season - this might suggest that the met think that the HP may move more towards us during November.
All in all - not a bad forecast and not far off what I see may happen.
This secanrio would be very different to many a recent year, but as you say would be very dry. Somehow I don't think this will prevail throughout, I would expect at least a short spell of autumnal gales at some point, but I like the idea of any high retrogressing over the country during the November ensuring cold and frosty conditions....
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Now if we go back even further I have the chart from 6th september 1948 and 6th september 1962, now if we remember 62/63 was one of the most remembered winters in history and although it shows colder air is closer to the uk it also does show that the cold pooling was not as extensive or as cold as it is on the 6th september this year. Unfortuanly the 850 charts dont start till 1948 so can not show you the 47 charts.
I Stand corrected there as it is an f1 chart for this year but the cold pooling is still starting to build well now even on current charts, call it a feeling but I have good feelings for this year and will save these charts and see what 6th september this year really does show.
Still find this information very interesting though and will now go and check chart differences with current charts.
I would interested to see the difference between 1985 and what is progged for this year. As we know 1985/86 winter produced our last truely sub zero CET for any month i.e. February.
I seem to recall seeing a chart for Sept 6th 1985 showing very cold weather relative to the time of year over the country.
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I'm not expecting a warm autumn like 2005 or 2006 but I also don't think we will record a below average autumn, I just think that this autumn will be very average in a word.
No real extremes of temperature but good as it won't be stupidly warm conditions messing up the natural world i.e. strawberries growing in November a la last year, please none of that again....
One thing I am hoping for this autumn are some earlier frosts the last 2 years on the frost front were dire, the first frost is always something to relish.. some way off yet but late Sept/early Oct is usually when I look at for this here in tyne and wear.. only a month away..
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It doesn't lok as if it is going to get hot with the high to the West so coolish nights away from the coast will keep the CET down. Now looking likely for two CET area months in a row below average and 3 in a row in the North East and Eastern Scotland.
Yes if the high pressure positions itself to our west for the remainder of the month expect some consistently quite cool minima for the rest of the month and maxima only average or just above so going by things now a below average CET looks highly likely. 2 on the trot who would have betted that, perhaps no-one... we shall see
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Well, of course Ian, you have to look at the overall warming trend and even though its a Hale Winter, the warming trend would mitigate the cold to some degree. These days, I think a winter like 95-96 would probably be about the best we can hope for and with the warming trend would probably be comparable with 1985. A winter like 1979 would be comparable these days with 1963 and I can't really see anything like that happening right now. So, something like 95-96 would be a pretty realistic winter to aim for at best, IMO.
Of course all of this about the Hale Cycle might just be another in a long list of red herrings. :lol:
I'd take a 95/96 winter anyday, it produced 2 notable events the freezing christmas week from 24th-31st and the 2 day heavy snowfall of the 5/6 feb, admittedly the first of these two events only really hit Scotland and N Eng hard and the second really only hit SW Scotland, Cumbria and parts of Wales hard, but we have yet to record comparable events since..., the greta thing about 95/96 was the continunous cold which seemed to persist from early December right through to mid March again we have not had a winter since, though 05/06 was in this context a more toned down version...
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I agree totally and yesterday was the perfect example. It ended up reasonably warm here (the first warm day since last weekend) and I thought that the night would also be milder than previous nights. However, after 9pm the temperature dropped suddenly thanks to the clear skies and we had another chilly one thanks to the duration of the night.
As you say, in June/July the temperatues wouldn't be so low because the nights are shorter - it starts brightening up after 3am!
Karyo
It is the polar maritime air that is causing the low minima at night, not the time of year, in fact lat July and early August is when you would normally expect a skew in bias to high minima just like you would expect with high maxima.
Polar maritime air and associated high pressure would deliver quite probably much colder minima in June and a little colder than now in July.
At last polar maritime air has been allowed to extend its influence, it is a source of air that has seemingly been pushed aside in recent years, but it is my favourite at any time of year never warm or mild but never cold either just cool, fresh and clear perfect for getting out and about in... more of this please ...
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We had two in 2005. November (-0.7c) and December (-0.8c) January 2006 was 0.1c below average and then we had 2 cool months in a row February (-0.5c) and March (-1.4c)
In the 90s the longest run of below average temperatures was in 1993. July (-1.3c) August (-1.5c) September (-1.3c) October (-1.9c) and November (-2.4c) an exceptional run of cold months.
Oh to have another autumn like 1993 we can only hope, I cerrtainly don't want an Autumn like last year, however I have faith this year that we will not see a repeat of last year, helped in large part to the cool summer and lower SST's.
In reply to the low minima, yes this is perhaps the most noteworthy statistic of the month so far, to get 2 days of cool minima so early in the month and slap bang in the middle of 'high summer' when we have often recorded both our highest maxes and minimas is very noteworthy indeed, long may they continue the heat of the weekend reminded me as to why I don't like heat i.e. could not sleep...
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I suspect that we could see a higher CET value than now as we head through August but I expect the overall CET to not be much above average. But in overview August is looking appreciably better than June and July at this stage.
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It is a big jump but tempertures can drop as quick just as easily. I honesty think its the fhon effect because it was cloudy for most of the morning and the temp was recorded at about 23C but as soon as the sun came out it risen(and coinscidently when the sun went in when the temp dropped again). If stormchaser said Newcastle Airport recorded 27C maybe its true but i don't know if they got the observation there or somewhere else in Newcastle. Must admit where i was did not felt 27C but i was slightly higher up at the time.
Okay I take the 27 degree reading for Newcastle airport, though perhaps it didn't reach so high in the city centre and surrounding suburbs, my location is Jesmond.
It certainly felt very warm for a short period at 1 o clock and yes I would suspect that the temperature did rise very quicky from 12 till 1 but to 27 degrees i certainly didn't expect.
As for a foehn effect well this was quite likely, however I would have expected other nearby stations to have recorded comparable if not higher temperature than 27 degrees.It is in this context that it certainly seems an odd value. I really hadn't anticpated seeing such a figure and I was beginning to think we might not even hit 25 degrees this summer.
Today was expected to be warmer than yesterday, I am not sure of the official figure for the City but I very much doubt it was as high as yesterday, even so today not yesterday has for me been the first day where it has felt like proper summer and going by the forecast it could well be the last for a long while yet...
With respect to my earlier message, the BBC are cnfirming the 30 degree value on the news, had the 'dubious' figure not been quoted would they have had a news item on today's weather, 30 degrees sounds so much more attention grabbing than 29 degrees.
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I personally hope that 30 degrees hasn't been reached today, just because it is such a rarity these days for a summer to go by without this figure being reached and if any summer is going to do it then let it be this one. If the summer goes by without such a figure being reached I feel this would be very apt considering the poor synoptics we have had and would further cement in memory how poor a summer we have had.
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Newcastle 13:00 27°C 15°C 48% 11mph n/a 26°C 1014mb
I still don't believe these figures, can anyone else confirm that 27 degrees was reached today in Newcastle, weather online website says only 23 degrees.
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Not wanting to dissent but Newcastle, Norwich and Cambridge have all hit 27C
Are you sure about the Newcastle figure? It certainly wasn't expected to reach any higher than 22 or 23 degrees here, although it has felt warm in the sun this afternoon, I would be very surprised if this figure has been achieved...
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Despite the attrocious wet conditions and persistant cloudy dull weather, I am overjoyed at the below average CET and not just below but comfortably below at that.
It has restored my faith in the hope that we can record some future below CET's in coming months and the upward trend of above average had not become set in stone.
It certainly makes for an interesting 5 year period of July's, 3 of which have been considerably above average and 2 comfortably below none very near average..
Extremity is the new word..
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22.4C, 20 June. The first summer since 1993 that 24C has not been exceeded here by 29 July. 1993 exceeded 23C, so we have to go back to before then to find the last summer during which 23C was not breached by this time.
I suspect this would be on a par with Sunderland's maximum where I work, but perhaps a little lower than Newcastle's where I live? But all in all what a shockingly woeful figure, no wonder I haven't yet had a day where I haven't needed to wear a jacket or coat!
Perhaps we might record a 25 celsius this year?
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It does look rather chilly monday night.
I`ll believe that when I see it..9.0c is the lowest I`ve had so far this July be interesting to see how low it does get to drop the CET down aswell with sunny days it`s like a cold HP in winter.
Philip Eden in today's telegraph was saying that it will be the coldest July for England and Wales since 1993, for some parts it could even be the coldest since 1988, quite some feat in these times of rising temperatures...
As for tonight and tomorrow night expect some very low readings for late July. Tonight could see widespread minima in north England and Scotland of around 8 degrees coldest in sheltered valleys where 5 degrees could be a average figure, indeed some places may record 2 or 3 degrees but I doubt anything lower but still for the 29th July quite cold indeed.
For tomorrow night south of england and midlands will see a colder night whereas more northern areas won't be quite as cold as tonight. Again many inland parts of central southern england and Wales likely to see widespread minima below 10 degrees with some parts possibly recording 5 degrees locally below this.
All in all wouldn't noramlly expect to see such low minima for another month or so...
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I went for 16.7 for July and so I am going for 16.7 for August aswell. I think we may see some quite cool nights which will offset by and large a bias to mostly above maximum temperatures by day.
I do not foresee a particularly warm month
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Whatever the final CET will be at long last it will be a below average CET how very very very refreshing it has restored my confidence in the idea that we won't necessarily see month after month of continuously above CET values in this period of global warming.
On a downside what a shame it has had to arrive in July, in my opinion it should have waited until September.
September CET!
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
There have been many months over the last couple of years that have had major switcharounds come mid month either to much above or much below average CET, the most recent was June this year, the first half was very mild then it appreciably cooled off. Last year I remember May 2006 doing the same...
I still think there is a good chance of a near average CET for September, lets wait until at least this time next week to see whether a well above CET is realistic.
I think this month is going to be one of two halves, the latter much cooler and unsettled though not necessarily very wet. I am expecting this month to be a dry one..