damianslaw
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Posts posted by damianslaw
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I personally hope that 30 degrees hasn't been reached today, just because it is such a rarity these days for a summer to go by without this figure being reached and if any summer is going to do it then let it be this one. If the summer goes by without such a figure being reached I feel this would be very apt considering the poor synoptics we have had and would further cement in memory how poor a summer we have had.
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Newcastle 13:00 27°C 15°C 48% 11mph n/a 26°C 1014mb
I still don't believe these figures, can anyone else confirm that 27 degrees was reached today in Newcastle, weather online website says only 23 degrees.
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Not wanting to dissent but Newcastle, Norwich and Cambridge have all hit 27C
Are you sure about the Newcastle figure? It certainly wasn't expected to reach any higher than 22 or 23 degrees here, although it has felt warm in the sun this afternoon, I would be very surprised if this figure has been achieved...
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Despite the attrocious wet conditions and persistant cloudy dull weather, I am overjoyed at the below average CET and not just below but comfortably below at that.
It has restored my faith in the hope that we can record some future below CET's in coming months and the upward trend of above average had not become set in stone.
It certainly makes for an interesting 5 year period of July's, 3 of which have been considerably above average and 2 comfortably below none very near average..
Extremity is the new word..
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22.4C, 20 June. The first summer since 1993 that 24C has not been exceeded here by 29 July. 1993 exceeded 23C, so we have to go back to before then to find the last summer during which 23C was not breached by this time.
I suspect this would be on a par with Sunderland's maximum where I work, but perhaps a little lower than Newcastle's where I live? But all in all what a shockingly woeful figure, no wonder I haven't yet had a day where I haven't needed to wear a jacket or coat!
Perhaps we might record a 25 celsius this year?
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It does look rather chilly monday night.
I`ll believe that when I see it..9.0c is the lowest I`ve had so far this July be interesting to see how low it does get to drop the CET down aswell with sunny days it`s like a cold HP in winter.
Philip Eden in today's telegraph was saying that it will be the coldest July for England and Wales since 1993, for some parts it could even be the coldest since 1988, quite some feat in these times of rising temperatures...
As for tonight and tomorrow night expect some very low readings for late July. Tonight could see widespread minima in north England and Scotland of around 8 degrees coldest in sheltered valleys where 5 degrees could be a average figure, indeed some places may record 2 or 3 degrees but I doubt anything lower but still for the 29th July quite cold indeed.
For tomorrow night south of england and midlands will see a colder night whereas more northern areas won't be quite as cold as tonight. Again many inland parts of central southern england and Wales likely to see widespread minima below 10 degrees with some parts possibly recording 5 degrees locally below this.
All in all wouldn't noramlly expect to see such low minima for another month or so...
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I went for 16.7 for July and so I am going for 16.7 for August aswell. I think we may see some quite cool nights which will offset by and large a bias to mostly above maximum temperatures by day.
I do not foresee a particularly warm month
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Whatever the final CET will be at long last it will be a below average CET how very very very refreshing it has restored my confidence in the idea that we won't necessarily see month after month of continuously above CET values in this period of global warming.
On a downside what a shame it has had to arrive in July, in my opinion it should have waited until September.
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I agree for the most part, though June had a NAO value of -1.3, which i would call negative rather than strongly negative, and i also agree with the below average temperatures, despite the warmest first half to a year on record, it means little if we can notch up below average months close to winter.
Yes certainly what I am looking out for now is a spell of below average months i.e. July August and September then perhaps a warmer October to be followed by a average November and then much colder than average December
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I am going to stick my neck out and say with some confidence that we will record a below average month, I just don't see any sufficient sustained spell of weather that can help the CET to recover to above average temperatures.
However, I think that it will only just be a below average month largely due to fairly mild nightime minima, had we seen high pressure exerting itself more readily towards the end of this week then I think we could have recorded some fairly chilly nights but although the end of the week will see some cooler minima i don't expect we will see anything that particularly cool.
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30 degrees we'll be lucky to see 25 degrees at this rate here in Newcastle.
Could anyone enlighten me as to the maximum temperature Newcastle upon Tyne has recorded so far this year. I wouldn't be surprised if this occured in April, I don't think we hit anymore than 21 degrees in June and less than that in May.
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But wasn't it only two years ago that they were confident of a below average winter, so it is wrong to suggest that the METO will never forecast any below average seasons.
I am hoping for a cooler autumn than we have had for many a year can't remember the last really below average autumn, at least that will help to lower sea temperatures and perhaps set us up for a early cold spell just in time for christmas. It would be good to see a disturbed Septmember quickly replaced by an anticyclonic October. Can't think about winter too much just yet, lets think about the Autumn first! I'm beginning to loose hope with this summer so my thoughts are naturally turning to Autumn right now much much earlier than in previous summers-quite refreshing really...
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Quite surprised to see figures for Scotland and N England coming in at just above average. Is is the high minimums that have caused it as maximums haven't been that great.
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Yes indeed normally we expect to see the highest recorded maximum for the year sometime from mid-late July i.e. from about the 18th through to early-mid August i.e. about the 13th.
The 18th July-13th August is high summer for me, if we are not to record 30 degrees during this period it would be quite unusual indeed.
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How refreshing it is that at this stage in the month we are seriously considering that we could actually be about to record a below average CET shock horror!
We've become so accustomed to having to put another above average month in the bank at ridiculously early points in any given month in the last few months. This month feels very very different to any other month since last August
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Accoringing to my calculations the CET minimum was about 9C and the maximum 19C - an average of about 14C
That should pull us down to 15.1C or 15.2C to the 8th
Predictions for the next 7 days are
9th Min 9C Max 19C Mean 14C - In running 15.0C
10th Min 10C Max 20C Mean 15C - In running 15.0C
11th Min 9C Max 20C Mean 14.5C - In running 15.0C
12th Min 12C Max 19C Mean 15.5C - In running 15.0C
13th Min 10C Max 22C Mean 16.0C - In running 15.1C
14th Min 14C Max 25C Mean 19.5C - In running 15.4C
15th Min 18C Max 25C Mean 21.5C - In running 15.8C
If the hotspell is as shortlived as the models are suggesting then we will still be below average when it has been and gone, meaning another above average spell will be required to get to average.
Yes agree with your last point there. I am still holding out that a 3-4 very warm spell will occur sometime after the 15th and before the 2oth but after that a cool down again.
At this stage I would offer only a 40% chance of an above average month.
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From: http://www.climate-uk.com/page2.html
These stats make it a little bit easier for folk up here to understand what's going on locally. And I think, certainly for us in the east, they feel like a fair reflection.
Thanks for those figures, very interesting and yes they show how poor the month was for much of scotland particularly the east. When talking about the CET living in Newcastle I don't pay much attention to what it is doing as it very rarely reflects on average mean temps here. It is a useful tool for making statistical comparisons and comparing temperatures from previous years but really only of interest for those living in the CET zone.
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I sincerely hope that we get a cool and wet September this year, although it probably won't be any cooler than average, but that would be much better compared to what we got last year. IMO this would be another good piece of the puzzle.
To be honest, I'm quite enjoying this wetter Summer so far, it makes a change! As long as it doesn't happen every year, I am missing those long warm dry evenings I have to say.
Yes lets have a cool wet september for a change I can't remember the last time we have had one of these, then I would like a sunny frosty october followed by a cold november. I feel like it is the end of august at the moment and we are looking into autumn not early July..
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Philip Eden notes that at Dyce (Aberdeen Airport), June was duller than last December...
Given that Durham recorded 94 hours of sunshine in January, it's touch and go in Tyne & Wear/Durham as to whether June will turn out duller than January, but there will be very little in it.
Amazing statistic emphasising emphatically that for Tyne and Wear June 2007 really was quite terrible, not one day hit above 21 degrees and the dullness has made it certainly feel like the depths of winter at times.
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This summer is beginning to have the same effect that a mild wet winter has on those looking for more 'seasonal' conditions i.e. we are beginning to get excited at even the mere chance of just one fine day under a temporary ridge, much like many of us feel about the chances of a similiar but cold dry day in winter.
However, strangely enough provided we can gather at least 1 week this summer of good fine warm conditions I am quite happy for the unsettled conditions to remain, it makes a change from recent summers of heatwave and drought conditions something that we are told we will have to get used to in the future, so why not at least make the most of an unsettled wet summer now as we may not if the global warmers believe see many comparable to which in the future.
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These statistics are really crazy and should be emphasised strongly in any review of the month.
June 2007 for Tyne and Wear has been and i will re-iterate absolutely shocking, even with the dry first 10-11 days it has been the dull grey skies that have made it so unappealing and unsummery, it is like living in January!
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The BBC weather presenter John Hammond just mentioned don't be surprised to see some flakes of snow in the highlands tomorrow, this emphasises the cold conditions we are under right now..
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It seems, astonishingly, that in parts of Northeast Britain June stands a chance of being duller than January:
(from climate-uk.com)
Boulmer Jan 91 hrs; June 1-15 18.8hrs
Dyce Jan 57 hrs; June 1-20 35.8 hrs
At latitudes above 55 deg North, this simply should not happen- June days are more than twice as long as January ones at that latitude and the sun is far stronger.
I'm glad someone has made this observation as it is something I have been mentioning time and time again this month i.e. the woeful sunshine levels in Newcastle/Sunderland.
June is usually the sunniest month of the year and although i don't usually expect warm conditions i do expect sunny conditions. This year has been appauling for sunshine.
You don't need high temperatures to make for a pleasant summers day 18 degrees is fine, but you do need the sun. It is for this reason that this June has been truly horrible here in Tyne and Wear, not the temperatures which certainly haven't been much to write about we haven't seen 21 celsius all month, or the rain which i think has been not much above average but the pathetic sunshine totals.
I would be interested for people to record their sunshine levels this month, a warm June certainly doesn't make up for a wet and dull one aswell!
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I'd be very very surprised if somewhere didn't record 30 celsius this year, even if that 30 celsius has to wait until September.
What is quite surprising is as someone has pointed out the number of places who haven't so far recorded above 25 celsius. I don't keep a track of maximum temperatures for my location, but I think I am right in saying that here in Newcastle 21 celsius is the record so far this year? Can anyone verify this, and by the look of things it could be at least sometime after 4th July that we are likely to record such a temperature, very poor indeed..
Possible 30c
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Okay I take the 27 degree reading for Newcastle airport, though perhaps it didn't reach so high in the city centre and surrounding suburbs, my location is Jesmond.
It certainly felt very warm for a short period at 1 o clock and yes I would suspect that the temperature did rise very quicky from 12 till 1 but to 27 degrees i certainly didn't expect.
As for a foehn effect well this was quite likely, however I would have expected other nearby stations to have recorded comparable if not higher temperature than 27 degrees.It is in this context that it certainly seems an odd value. I really hadn't anticpated seeing such a figure and I was beginning to think we might not even hit 25 degrees this summer.
Today was expected to be warmer than yesterday, I am not sure of the official figure for the City but I very much doubt it was as high as yesterday, even so today not yesterday has for me been the first day where it has felt like proper summer and going by the forecast it could well be the last for a long while yet...
With respect to my earlier message, the BBC are cnfirming the 30 degree value on the news, had the 'dubious' figure not been quoted would they have had a news item on today's weather, 30 degrees sounds so much more attention grabbing than 29 degrees.