damianslaw
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Posts posted by damianslaw
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The 22 March, the day before the first lockdown announcement, was Mother's Day, and I remember it being a very mild almost warm day, marking the start of the long very warm spell. Sitting outside was comfortable in the warming sunshine and light winds, but there was an eerie oddness to the day and expectations of what was to come, many speculations a lockdown was looming imminently.
The first week was quite bizarre, remember passing people I knew in the street with a wide berth in the glorious sunshine.
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jimben Certainly the next 36 hours or so will be cold enough for snow to not only fall but settle to quite modest heights, about 500-600m in any sustained heavy precipitation with evaporative cooling taking affect. All very normal, we are not quite late season for snow on high ground, indeed it can fall easily well into May, but tends not to stick for long if at all, but April can bring heavy falls and decent coverage still.
Its a bright fine early spring day here, but cold feeling, with a brisk cold wind, temp maxed around 9.5 degrees. Dry so far but showers knocking on the door.
Tomorrow set cold with a strong wind and plenty of showers to dodge, could be quite heavy with hail.
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jmp223 Pity its not a high instead, a broad trough taking up much of central and east atlantic. Could be a very slow mover.
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Probably only a small drop in the days ahead, mid to high 7s likely finished.
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cheeky_monkey On reflection I'll go with 1995 as a whole, Jan and Feb were a washout, but the rest of the year was very varied with a largely blocked atlantic. This continued through 1996 but with less extremes, and into 1997.
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MattStoke 2018 was good until August, the rest of the year was rather average with another mild end of the year.
2010 or 1996 for me calandar year wise.. rolling 12 months Mar 95 to Feb 96.
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andymusic A synoptic far more likely verify in April or May than any other months, and certainly not to be discounted.. though as always subject to change.
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GFS12z shows one of the slowest moving troughs I've seen, doesn't clear fully until 6 April, secondary low joins the painfully slow filling low on situ. This is the time of year when we do unfortunately see very slow moving/ filling troughs and lows when northern heights appear on the scene.. not too surprised to see the current model output for rest of March, but rather displeased namely with Easter on the horizon, which traditionally marks the start of the holiday tourist season, and is the first holiday after a long period of winter hibernation. Easter is notorious for being plagued by very different weather.
ECM maintains the trough further SW with a easterly flow, perhaps not as wet, but dull and cool all the same.
Those holiday brochures seem more appealing than ever, for a nation deprived of vitamin D for near on 6 months!
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Some people equate sunburn to heat, in April and May they are caught out for this reason, you'll see many a red neck on display when the sun comes out in April despite a freezing north wind!
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Stationary Front We managed 3 ice days in January and nearly 2 in December, quite respectful. There was notable cold in the north last day Nov, first couple days of Dec and 15-18 Jan, but fleeting. A shift south of the pattern and it could have been a notably cold winter.
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Weather Enthusiast91 Cut off for no cream in September is by mid month. Can get away with a couple more weeks just about..
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We do seem to have exchanged lengthier drier periods and shorter lived unsettled ones from Dec 20 to longer unsettled spells and shorter drier ones since late June last year... looking back at recent decades we've seen a lot of this switching sometimes in shorter time periods sometimes up to about 4 years.. there is always variability though, but I'm struggling to remember the last year which brought month after month of average rainfall, seems to be far more wetter and drier months than average ones nowadays.
Back to the models, as many are looking towards Easter, they are not painting a preety picture, take your pick either a deep trough sat over the UK or a bit further west, both scenarios mean wet and a variation on cool, near average temps. Lots of time yet for things to change but the direction doesn't suggest a lengthy dry spell anytime soon sadly as I think this is what many want, temps not as important.
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Turned into a grey wet day and feeling quite chilly.
Looking forward to polar air tomorrow and much clearer cleaner sunnier skies, which we have seen little of so far this March.
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In Absence of True Seasons The last easter to fall in March was 2016, quite a while back. Incidentally easter 1991, 2002, and 2013 all happened on the 31 March.
For late March warmth there was 2012. Followed by a flip to cold in April.
The latest easter in recent years was I think 2007 or 2011 both were very warm.
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Cut off point when I need suncream.is roughly second week of April, many a day fell walk without protection has resulted in sun burn.. by then the sun is as strong as very tail end of August into September. Don't wait for the warm weather before putting the cream on!
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Metwatch I took part in the Redcar half marathon 11 or 12 March 2006 in a blizzard, sub zero windchill, freezing!
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The Lake District escaped with a dry day today, very bright with some sunny spells, a definate taste of spring in the air, certainly put a step in my stride.
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Mmm not liking the direction of travel being thrown up by ECM and GFS as we move closer to Easter, the choice of a deep trough locked in situ a la ECM (UKMO heading this way), or a chilly easterly and no doubt dull airflow, with possible cold rain plaguing many placed, probably drier further north a la GFS.
Naturally people's attention is turning to Easter right now, but its 10 day plus away (Good Friday) and there is much time to go through before we can begin to have more confidence in likely developments.
In the immediate, a couple more very mild albeit dull and in places wet days, followed by a colder polar flow Friday and through the weekend, with the return of frost, wintry showers northern high ground and temps back to average, slightly below further north. Importantly polar air means clean clear air which means sunshine hooray! but by this time of year can also bring increased convective activity, sudden showers of hail and squally winds, something different on the way after 2 weeks of mild gunk.
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Perhaps a levelling off by Friday for the rest of the month if current model synoptics verify, may even see a drop at some point, but it could be mild minima which holds things up.
A finish between 7.5 and 8.5 most probable which will mean another notably above average month, possibly exceptionally so if close to 8.5 degrees.
Will we ever see a below average 61-90 month again, no doubt an odd month will turn up out of the blue at some stage.
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Don Evidence that in the right circumstances mid March can still bring full snow cover through the day, but you need no sunshine. and a cold pool overhead with notable snow, a couple of cms no good.
Late March 13 saw snow stick in many valley bottom fields out of the sun as well, but in it, the snow was able to thaw to a degree but not fully. Latest example of late season long lasting snow.
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It was a notable event still, yes the Saturday was a cold raw day with a few light snow showers, a band of heavy snow arrived in the early hours of the Sunday, it was powdery in nature. We had about 4 inches, it stuck in shaded places through the day as temps struggled to get much above freezing.
Mid March snow has been very common, 1980, 1985, 1987, 1994, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2008 (well a bit later at easter), 2013 and 2018. In recent years it has been more absent though.
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Joe Snow From late March on, northerly, easterly and cold cyclonic conditions are far more likely to occur than any stage since early June.
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Not much in the way of sunshine, bright at times but alot of cloud. Felt pleasant in the light winds with temps knocking on 12 degrees. Certainly a feeling of 'spring in the air', but some good sunny spells would cement that further. The immediate outlook looks dull, the weekend should bring much more sunshine in the clean polar air and a return of frost.
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Cambrian Good post. This scenario has by and large played out since July, brief drier incursions, the odd very brief northerly, but by and large an omnipresent deep trough has sat either to our west, or SW, pulling in either mild southerly sourced air or more often than not dank south westerly/westerly airstreams, with the north at times tapping into a cooler source as the jet sinks south.
Still a long way off, but the models continue to show a rather unsettled outlook in the run up to easter after a chilly northerly this weekend.
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E.N.S.O. Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by damianslaw
Don Given the current state affairs, no doubt we'll get our next super cold winter when all the signals are pointing super mild, strong la nina, peak solar, west qbo!