damianslaw
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Posts posted by damianslaw
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The Lake District escaped with a dry day today, very bright with some sunny spells, a definate taste of spring in the air, certainly put a step in my stride.
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Mmm not liking the direction of travel being thrown up by ECM and GFS as we move closer to Easter, the choice of a deep trough locked in situ a la ECM (UKMO heading this way), or a chilly easterly and no doubt dull airflow, with possible cold rain plaguing many placed, probably drier further north a la GFS.
Naturally people's attention is turning to Easter right now, but its 10 day plus away (Good Friday) and there is much time to go through before we can begin to have more confidence in likely developments.
In the immediate, a couple more very mild albeit dull and in places wet days, followed by a colder polar flow Friday and through the weekend, with the return of frost, wintry showers northern high ground and temps back to average, slightly below further north. Importantly polar air means clean clear air which means sunshine hooray! but by this time of year can also bring increased convective activity, sudden showers of hail and squally winds, something different on the way after 2 weeks of mild gunk.
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Perhaps a levelling off by Friday for the rest of the month if current model synoptics verify, may even see a drop at some point, but it could be mild minima which holds things up.
A finish between 7.5 and 8.5 most probable which will mean another notably above average month, possibly exceptionally so if close to 8.5 degrees.
Will we ever see a below average 61-90 month again, no doubt an odd month will turn up out of the blue at some stage.
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Don Evidence that in the right circumstances mid March can still bring full snow cover through the day, but you need no sunshine. and a cold pool overhead with notable snow, a couple of cms no good.
Late March 13 saw snow stick in many valley bottom fields out of the sun as well, but in it, the snow was able to thaw to a degree but not fully. Latest example of late season long lasting snow.
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It was a notable event still, yes the Saturday was a cold raw day with a few light snow showers, a band of heavy snow arrived in the early hours of the Sunday, it was powdery in nature. We had about 4 inches, it stuck in shaded places through the day as temps struggled to get much above freezing.
Mid March snow has been very common, 1980, 1985, 1987, 1994, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2008 (well a bit later at easter), 2013 and 2018. In recent years it has been more absent though.
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Joe Snow From late March on, northerly, easterly and cold cyclonic conditions are far more likely to occur than any stage since early June.
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Not much in the way of sunshine, bright at times but alot of cloud. Felt pleasant in the light winds with temps knocking on 12 degrees. Certainly a feeling of 'spring in the air', but some good sunny spells would cement that further. The immediate outlook looks dull, the weekend should bring much more sunshine in the clean polar air and a return of frost.
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Cambrian Good post. This scenario has by and large played out since July, brief drier incursions, the odd very brief northerly, but by and large an omnipresent deep trough has sat either to our west, or SW, pulling in either mild southerly sourced air or more often than not dank south westerly/westerly airstreams, with the north at times tapping into a cooler source as the jet sinks south.
Still a long way off, but the models continue to show a rather unsettled outlook in the run up to easter after a chilly northerly this weekend.
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WYorksWeather In an average year April is one if not the driest month of the year, especially in the NW... very wet April's can happen a la 2012, but it is a month I associate with dry weather more than any other, we've had bone dry April's. its also the month I associate most with northern blocking and northerly and easterly airstreams, far more likely to verify in April and May than any other months. Lets see if the GFS holds firm on this signal.
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Summer8906 2 weeks time and everything will feel very very different, just one one more weekend ' dark side of the year', I don't find October days half as dark as March days I wonder if simply because we have stored 6 months of sun and light, whereas in March we've had 4 months of gloom.
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Ominous signals from the GFS for easter, yes a long way off, but it has held firm on the idea of blocking to our north and north east, and a deep slow moving cyclonic trough to our SW, held in situ by the heights to our north. The outcome a decidedly unsettled Easter, none too mild either, quite cold in the north.
In the near timeframe, all models in agreement of a change by Friday with the trough finally shifting east allowing a colder but more importantly sunnier polar airstream to take hold and drier too. Im fed up of the mild south westerly airstream gunk prevailing right now and am happy to see such a prospect on the horizon simply as I am sun starved after nearing on 5 months of gloom - it takes its toll at this of time, people's energy reaches an all time annual low..
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Mmm a mostly cloudy day, bright spells brief, alot of low cloud and heavy drizzle, capping off a thoroughly dull week. Looking forward to the polar air arrival on Friday to kick away the moist tropical maritime airstream set to last until then, I'll say it again the SW airstream is my least favourite, and I don't care it brings mild/very mild temps, rather have dry sunny weather. Fed up of it!
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Another low grey cloudy sky... will it brighten. Barely a couple hours of sunshine all week.
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GFS continues to play around with extensive heights to our north as we approach Easter, Ive not been checking the ensembles to see where the ops are sitting in the means.. but I am taking note..
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A mood change of a day, all very promising and cheerful this morning, all dull and gloomy this afternoon. The rain has been patchy but it all has a late winter feel to things rather than early spring, such is the rebound nature of March.
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Summer8906 Yes not a very stormy winter, and in the main despite how wet it has been, the rain came in moderate outbursts, steady rather than deluges... at least from a lakeland perspective, hardly any flooding, which is a big bonus.
We were not far off a cold unsettled winter, had the jet been more southerly, the cold was there to our north, just out of reach to tap into, evidenced by the fact Iceland had a cold winter, Shetland was average.
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April, May and first half of June is my favourite time of year weather wise and for being outdoors, usually drier than any other 2 and half month period, everything growing fresh green, sunshine hours by mid May reach their annual peak, none of the very humid cloud dank infested airstreams of high summer, the promise of summer to come still, ever increasing daylight.. the year doesn't get any better than in this time period. Overall May is the par excellence month!
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We are entering on average our driest most settled quarter of the year, which tends to implode by the summer solstice, whilst mid June to mid Sept is our warmest quarter it is typically far wetter and more unsettled. Overall I far prefer the next quarter of the year and in this regard don't want to move straight to summer, a definate shift takes place in late March, the new 'dawn' is just around the corner.
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A rarity here, tends to be a east coast phenonema.. when very cold convective airstreams hit the warm SSTs...
The only thundersnow I can remember was late on 21 Dec 2009. Heavy snow showers banded together from a SW direction off Morecambe Bay unusually, with a cold trough parked to our north, arctic air reached us on a long sea track from the SW, the warm Irish Sea interacting with the cold air aided convection.
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IDO Yes a change from a predominantly very mild unsettled large middle back to the earlier unsettled chillier/average start. Not a great prospect in the run up to Easter.
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Looking at the synoptics must have been evaporative cooling at play, shows don't need very cold uppers in mid March to produce snow, just enough precipitation and modest uppers.
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Its going to be a very frustrating day, the sun has burst through last hour or so, but knowing rain is knocking on our door, it is putting pay to outdoor plans. Sods law timing wise, arriving in the evening would be far better, but a band of rain moving through Saturday afternoon is the absolute worst timing at any point in the week..
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tricol Its a month I never rate and thankful out of the way, dips its toes in and out of winter and spring, can never make up its mind, whereas April though the most varied month, has a more definate Spring feel to it, combined with all the new growth, it feels so very different.
Im the same with September and October, September I find very frustrating..
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A change in the ECM and UKMO output for next weekend at least, the azores high sitting out west with a deep trough pushing east pulling in a chilly northerly, GFS heads the same way, then develops extensive northern blocking. They must be responding to some new signal, when you see abrupt changes arising in the 6-7 day timeframe it does suggest 'new developments', perhaps more varied fayre for the latter part of the month, compared to the very generous very mild albeit dull wet big middle..
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“Second Beast From The East” 2018
in Historic Weather
Posted
Metwatch I took part in the Redcar half marathon 11 or 12 March 2006 in a blizzard, sub zero windchill, freezing!