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london-snow

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Posts posted by london-snow

    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    I think you’re right, however look at the flip today of the ECM - we could have significantly different wording tomorrow - we are nearly in the reliable now so let’s hope so 

    Hope so, although you mentioned flips yesterday the meto was talking about colder further south today entirely different. Personally as a southerner I’ve written off Christmas period and look past that to the 28th and onwards. 

    • Like 1

    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    25 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    This might be the first real test of MOGREPS we see publicly, the 12z run is having absolutely none of it and brings milder air into southern England with the low. 

    Either the model is going to cover itself in glory & out-do a majority of other models, or it's going to have a spectacular climb down..

    mogrepstmplondon.thumb.png.ef1dad6ec940b467276c37e45bfdf375.png

    Very much ties in with the latest met forecast just pre and post Christmas unfortunately for in the south. 

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - Christmas approaches

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Cleeve Hill said:

    For everyone having a bit of a meltdown please remember these charts change every 6 hours and we are still over a week away from Christmas. Charts rarely verify 168 - 192 hours away. 
     

    Plus, take a look at the METO update this afternoon.

    Couldn’t have put it better myself. 
     

    I’ve always been under the impression that no matter if screamingly easterlies are showing at +24 until the met are on board don’t take it as gospel. I personally see today as a positive position a very good met update and we also know that Christmas and post will not be resolved until early next week. 

    Model output discussion 11/12/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    imo December 21st-22nd is moving day and where scatter is appearing on many ensembles that’s 7 days away and brings us to +168 at a start for the possible cold outbreak a long time for ups and downs and believing and disbelieving op outputs. I feel we will see a cold outbreak and outlook however personally think it will be a slow burner possibly just after Christmas before we see a sustained spell of cold weather. Although what is more encouraging at this point from a coldie camp perspective is in the building up a lowering of temperature and very seasonal feel. Starters before the mains..

    Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    PS the stratosphere can do what it likes as long as the trop/strat remain de-coupled which seems likely going forward into December. 

    AAM likely to rise through the first week of December coupled with MJO phase 6-7 of what looks like fairly decent amplitude. The depth of cold across Scandinavia at the moment supports the models idea of a surface high. 

    Forget the overblown lows and the strong vortex, at this stage they're not important. We're currently staring down the barrel of a loaded gun waiting to fire a fully fledged Scandinavian high backing bitterly cold air westwards towards the UK, but will it fire.. 

    yes and quite earlier than you think I’m thinking 9th-11th December. Perhaps a tad before. 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Temps around 4-6c and quite unsettled...could be cold enough for something wintry at times..and keep in mind how flat Holland is!


    yes correct as the same as London, however from past experience it is always put the milder picture first before the colder solution later. Very encouraging from my pov as we very rarely see a colder extended outlook with snow symbols and see such utter garbage in the output prior +120. 

    • Thanks 1

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, Sno' problem said:

    It's a rare event to have snow laying for more than a day in central London, but there is nothing more beautiful than the hush in the streets when there is heavy snow falling, especially in the middle of the night when it's you and the foxes on the streets. Can't wait to go for a late night totter if/when the snow hits properly!


    I am quietly confident of seeing 5cms+ from Sunday’s offerings, shower bands & potential streamers excluded.

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