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london-snow

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    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018

    in Regional

    Posted

    Just now, Paul Sherman said:

    Yes and the sad thing is I have a friend who can get the data from UKV charts etc which he has licence too as well and that is painting a daunting picture for some locations that would blow his 5cm out of the water. Not in my neck of the woods though unfortunately, and areas with elevation obviously

    Oh you snow tease...

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    It takes a 1045mbs high to finally exert a solid easterly flow, the boundary before that point is literally down the middle of the UK. for the sake of ease, lets have a westward trend on the later runs from the GFS please!

    We are literally at the far end of the flow, we cannot have any more easterly adjustments or the west and Ireland would come under a more average atlantic based set-up.

    Correct me if i am wrong but doesn’t the gfs have a big tendency to underplay easterlies and westward correction filters in once the overall pattern is just about there? 

    • Like 1

    Meto Uk Further Outlook

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Sorry but as I read it i would call it a downgrade..

    Over the past 4 weeks it has been earmarked for a increasing risk of much colder weather with chances of snow increasing. Now let’s face facts 90% of us don’t live up a hill in northern england or further north with serious elevation (good luck to those that do). We are all seeking countrywide low level snow. Now I believe that is down to little or no blocking being picked up in the mid to long term output. People associate a ssw with blocking however thus far we have seen little or no evidence of this happening and influencing our weather. Those who have said ‘Wedges make Sledges’ may be right but imo no it’s laughable because these ‘Wedges’ do not give the majority of the uk a shot at prolonged cold which is what imo 100% of all winter weather enthusiasts seek.

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by london-snow

    I think a good few days of calmness is required here as imo the bigger picture plays out and eventually may or may not show it’s hand..

    If say we have not seen any hints of heights into the Greenland or Scandi vicinity by say early next week then i’d be concerned that either we have a longer delay into a possibility of a cold spell or we may simply be out of luck on this occasion. 

    However 14+ days and at this juncture we are in a watch and waiting game to see what effects up top has had. We had no QTR and seasoned pros aswell as pros have now tipped a possible cold spell towards the end of the month so let’s sit back and not get hung up on every run and everyone. 

    I believe we are on the verge and well in with a more than decent shot of a very cold end to January and into February and not just a few glancing cold shots or fleeting useless toothless two day snaps.

    • Like 4
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    Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by london-snow

    16 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

    But.......but.... could someone post up the 3 worst looking ensembles?  Just to remind me that, as my optimism, what can go wrong often does go wrong,

     

    Nooooooo!

    There’s a thread for that it’s called the NSACRA (Non snow and cold rampers association) I cannot find a link as i wish not to be associated with such group. This thread has now been hijacked by people armed to the teeth with sledges and snow shovels galore..

    And we are ready to use them ✊

    • Like 11
    • Thanks 1

    Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    With the touted SSW around christmas is it reasonable to think about a sudden swift response filtered into the output. Or are we always looking at a 2 week min lag time for what is going on high up to filter down? 

    I remember a few years back a dreaded outlook but sudden change and run with it type which materialised (Not to sure if it was strat related though). 

     

    Could we we we’ll see this happen post Christmas? 

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