[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Can't believe the ECM has done this to us again ?. I though the ecm had better resolution on the strat ? Obviously it's not a done deal but you get the feeling when the ecm flips to an output not so good for us coldies it's onto something ?. Mind you the GEFS are good set on the 00z . Maybe it's going to be a waiting game till the last 3rd of the month , when the SSW really takes affect . 

 

Think I read that the ssw don’t take effect until tomorrow (I think?) add to that what bobbydog has stated above. I honestly don’t think we will see a true handle on our patterns going forward until such factors play out and drip and feed down into the various output we see day in and out. 

Not one for the faint hearted for sure but I have faith in the brilliant knowledgeable posters who have called for a potentially very cold pattern to emerge and backed up by the met who have not changed their tune for well over a week.

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

Just now, Chevron12345 said:

Comment related to 6z output. Thats what it showed. Maybe should of added: 'going by the 6z output...' Lots of panicing and jumping on posts again it seems.

With all due respect posts like yours create the jumping and start the bickering off..

Not many members have a great deal of knowledge but are ‘ weather enthusiasts ‘ and whilst trying to learn rely on more seasoned and knowledgeable posters for pointers or predictions of which way our weather is heading. When you post one gfs that shows day 10 mildish weather and don’t take into effect what impacts a ssw may have it kind of rubs people that have took hours to write a well balanced and thought out post backed up by charts the wrong way. 

Not saying your theory might be right or wrong but try and take everything into consideration and not just view one run and think ‘ that’ll hack them off ‘.

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

Forgive me for the sake of this thread but has this ssw occurred yet? 

Has the dismantling of the pv happened yet and has it given us a clear insight of where blocking will occur owing to this ssw?

I don’t think so..

There have been some great posts from insightful scientific posters over the past few days who has backed up their thoughts with understandings and data related to strat warming’s and how it can and possibly will affect our island in the near future. I duly note that not many of the charts posted by our knowledgeable posters actually show a ecm or gfs chart but more scientific charts related to the ssw and what goes with it.

That may be the clue to those less knowledgeable like myself regarding what’s happening up top and that is because nothing has occurred yet and hence the reasons why the filtering down to the likes of the daily models have yet to get to grips.

So to avoid more bickering why not wait until the ssw has happened then ramp or moan in the relevant thread? 

Early next week imo likely to see where we go in the mid to long term.

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

Just a observation people are moaning about the gfs and how it has shown a consistent trend for the past 2 that’s 2 runs to water down this potential incoming cold spell.

 

Here is a point..

 

Has the ukmo & ecm over the past 12 runs shown this watered down version??

Nope..

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Impressive, 5-7C below average at the surface  This could be the most noteworthy cold spell for some time in the UK, especially more southern areas which have struggled to register a frost for all of January. 

We have had some quite clear and frosty days over the course of winter even a few slushy deposits of wet snow but nothing out of the ordinary and certainly nothing compared to other parts of the uk.

This possible sustained cold spell could make up for the past letdowns and garden paths it sure is fascinating viewing at the moment. Wouldn’t worry too much about snow possibilities atm imo.

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

13 minutes ago, karyo said:

Here it is: 

 

Many thanks ?

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

5 minutes ago, karyo said:

It fits well with Ian Pennel's winter forecast. His update from yesterday is mouthwatering for end of January and in particular February.

Back to the 6z, as others have said a lot of polar maritime air for next week. It seems the cold air has been pushed back a bit thanks to the Russian high but it is still there. 

Would you happen to have a link to view his thoughts Karyo? 

Thanks ?

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I also predicted it would fail, and I'm predicting any potent Easterly much before months end will also fail

Predictions are one thing but backing up your reasonings behind  your predictions as teits has done is priceless.

 

Maybe give a balanced view on why any potent easterly will fail because imo anything past 96+ at the moment is dubious. There is a wide range of options on the table which is why i refrain from calling any option going forward at the moment. 

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

I agree a lot with steve's thoughts and analysis as it has been proven time & time again that the GFS cannot handle easterlies well. 

Another point i may make is that the first push of cold weather is virtually nailed on its into early mind next week when disagreements start. That's near a week away peeps especially when we are talking about small details having big effects things such as the positioning and orientation of the HP & shortwaves galore. 

 

Take one one step at a time, Don't hang on every run & sanity will be sparred.

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

I believe Tamara used the phase 'The worm is turning last winter'..

 

2017 SPECIAL...

 

The TURTLE is turning and it's coming to a town near you.. ?

 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

7 minutes ago, terrier said:

Not liking the look of the 18z so far 

Really please explain..

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

15 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

I hate to be the one to moan but although these charts all look great now everything always just gets watered down in the end, like this coming week yeah will be cold but dry, some may say it was always going to be dry etc but a few days ago the charts where looking better than they do now for the next few days etc. Just my opinion of course 

I don't see any watering down of charts just differentating variations of possibilities currently all output is cold. The key differences are from +72 - +144 on how we go forward. 

 

Take a a chill pill and enjoy the ice train...

[Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards]

This looks like a sample starter before the mains. The radar is not picking up the constant strikes from the south but it's every 20secs. And look what's to come. Londoners get ready see you on the other side.

[Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards]

Loving the radar atm sw london lookout in a hour or so going to go bang 

[Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards]

33 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

It would be fine if storms were to occur all the way to October as you say, but with half the season gone we've already been denied at least three events, and with nothing on the radar for the foreseeable future I just see the summer days passing by with nothing electrical of note happening. Especially with this heat: was 32° yesterday afternoon!

That seems to be the trouble the past few years we down in the south bake and those up north get all the goods storm wise. 

[SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards]

Storms starting to fire just south of Pompey,

[Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards]

Typical depressive heat and a breeding ground for those up north.

[Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards]

I'm in Morden SM4 what a shamble a 5 mile trek its utter madness here calm and cloudy tut tut tut..

[Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards]

So so perilously close in sm4 constant thunder no rain as of yet but signs of back building as far south and east of me as dorking..

[Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards]

3 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Big flash of lightning here with thunder. Pouring rain for a good 45 minutes now.

There you go mate :-)

[Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards]

Big strike directly south of me now with distant thunder.

it does seem to me though the heavy rain has cooled things off a tad. Which may explain lack of convection I.E lightning and thunder. 

.

. 

[Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards]

First strike here just to the west of me no thunder as of yet..

[Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards]

1 minute ago, Mesoscale said:

I hope you are right mate. 

If anyone's old enough or young and likes a war film I will quote a famous saying from fail safe which we will be using tonight ' Mr president I hear sounds of explosions coming from my south east (instead of north east) the sky is very bright all lit up BAAAAAANNNG...

[Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards]

2 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Another Kent clipper. Zzzzzzzzz bedtime!

Look mate real unstable mass has only just reached coastal areas and yet to interact further inland. Give it half hour and I think you'll be surprised..

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

Nick I agree it's frustrating but I don't blame Matt at all I blame people certain wums who like to take certain snippets from social media and not read and or post the full balanced post and do this so it causes a stir.