Met4Cast

Hello I do seem to remember you getting the last two winters generally correct, and I remember talking to you about intuition saying I had an the same thing before a cold winter, yours seems to be calling for a warm and wet winter, mine is calling for a cold and snowy winter. I wonder who will be right? Obviously I don't base forecasts COMPLETELY on intuition, that'd be crazy. Based on the current ENSO forecasts, Solar Activity, SST Anomalies, Pressure Pattern Anomalies, etc.. I'd say that we're more than likely going to see another cold winter, possibly similar to last winter, starting off very cold and snowy before settling down and becoming a little more closer to the average/slightly below average. Though I do expect we'll see more cold spells spread throughout winter, rather than having it all at once. It'll be interesting to see whether science or intuition wins out

GFS has the -10c Isotherm as early as the 22nd, but by the next chart its gone.

Considering it's BELOW the average, I'm going to say it's not normal. There seems to be some very warm SSTs to the North of Iceland heading North-East. Weird.

How do you explain 2010 being one of the warmest years Globally, on record, then?

Its unbearable isn't it? I wouldn't mind if it wasn't for the humidity. In Spain I can quite happily sit out in 40c+ heat. But here, anything about 26c with the humidity is horrible.

It's still 31c here in North Kent, down from a high of 33c. The line of rain coming out of France doesn't look particularly exciting, our only hope is for something to kick off as the Cold Front heads East. It is sadly, looking increasingly unlikely, though.

Just because there's CAPE and LIFT around it doesn't mean there will be a thunderstorm. You have to have precipitation.

Perhaps, but the only way the sun really does power the Gulf Stream is by heating up the waters at the equator which causes the colder, denser water to rise, starting off the current. Of course, as the Earth warms up, more amounts of fresh water flow into the sea, upsetting the salinity balance in the water, effectively cutting off the Gulf Stream leading to an Ice Age. However, I haven't seen significant proof that the Gulf Stream is started to shut down, so I don't think we need to worry too much just yet

Do you have a link showing the Gulf Stream has decreased? The Gulf Stream decreasing would mean less warm water in the Atlantic, which I think, helps to fuel the Jet Stream, so without the warmth of the Gulf, the Jet Stream is forced further Southwards.

Unlikely. The Gulf Stream is made up from Ocean currents due to salt salinity/warm and colder waters. The sun is unlikely to be the driver behind the Gulf Stream. The Jet Stream however, is atmospheric, so the sun has a greater affect on that.

Floating ice has no affect on sea level. If the ice was floating on water, and then melted, sea levels would stay exactly the same. When you have a glass of water with ice cubes on a hot, sunny day. As the ice melts, does the water level rise in the glass? It's the same principle, albeit on a very large scale.

Ah yes, I have to say this annoys me more than anything else. Whenever I tell my friends that theres a risk of snow before the TV forecasts are saying anything, they always seem to say "No it wont, it never does" despite me being right about it most times. I don't understand why people do this?

Sounds like a great forecast, I hope it comes off Just out of interest, how accurate are you guys normally? I haven't really been following the forum until the last couple of weeks so I don't know what your track record is, thanks

Indeed.

December is looking pretty cold according to the CFS

There is a trend for more settled, but colder weather to become established across much of the UK. Rainfall should be mostly below average, especially in the west. Easterly winds could bring wintry showers to some parts, particularly to the east coast. Temperatures are likely to be below average with an increased risk of frost overnight. .................. Going by what the MO have said in the forecast above, I think it's safe to assume the colder air will not be brought down by an area of low pressure, considering they're going for settled weather and below average rainfall in the West, which suggests they are expecting High Pressure to be close to Western Parts.

The MO said this, and I quote "Easterly winds could bring wintry showers to some parts" Forgive me for suggesting they are forecasting winds coming in from the East. I must have been thrown off by the mention of "Easterly Winds" I think its fairly safe to assume that when they mention Easterly Winds, that the source of said winds is likely to be from the East. Is that not a fair assumption to make? Only on Net-Weather can someone jump down someones elses throat over absolutely nothing, deary me.

Yes, but cold air wasn't sourced from the East, it had been dragged down with quite an intense area of low pressure. That's very different to winds coming in from the East and bringing wintry showers across Eastern areas, isn't it? I don't see anyone criticizing the Metoffice here, but rather wondering and discussing a forecast they issued for today. This is after all a discussion thread, why can't people voice opinions on this forum without others jumping down their necks? It's ridiculous. Yes, I guess wintry showers would be possible in an Easterly flow later this month and into early December, but I think even the more experianced forecasters realise it'd usually take something special to get wintry showers to lower ground from an Easterly before the middle of December/Early January.

I think he was stating that because Europe isn't looking particularly cold, it's hard to see how Easterly winds will bring wintry showers to Eastern coastal areas like the Metoffice are suggesting? Hes perfectly right IMO and well within his right to voice an opinion.

I've been reading through and I think I may be getting and hang of this more technical stuff now. Can anyone tell me if what I'm saying would be correct? The MJO has moved into Phase 5 and the composites for that for November suggest a weak high pressure to our East, with a major trough in the Atlantic. The MJO is forecasted to move back into Phase 6 later on The composites for that suggest High Pressure to our North, but largely over the United Kingdom The NAO and AO are forecast to move to a more neutral/weak positive, before returning negative again in the next 10 days. So does this mean we can expect to see a temporary return to Atlantic weather systems, with the wettest and windiest weather towards the North and West, before a return to a cooler, more blocked type weather system into the second week of November? I'm still learning, so If i've said something wrong, could you help? Thanks.

Yeah, a milder November might not be too far off the mark is the CFS Pressure Anomalies are anything to go by.. Northern blocking never really gets going until December according to that chart, which would tie in nicely with Net-Weathers winter forecast.

The CFS seems to have downgraded the cold for this winter today.

I was under the impression that we were in a -QBO at the moment? Surely thats good news for the winter months?

Positive Weather Solutions. A few days ago they were forecasting floods for the end of the month, now they're forecasting snow. Anyway, best get back on topic before the mods get their baseball bats out and start banning people.

It was probably PWS that you saw forecasting that, if thats the case ignore it, they're always wrong. I don't think we'll really see winter starting properly until Mid October/November