Met4Cast

Sadly more Media Hype. By "weeks" they could mean anything from 2 weeks, to 18 weeks and beyond. There's nothing in the short, medium or long term models to suggest anything near that cold in the near or distant future. The Media do love to pick up sensationlist forecasts and make them even more sensational, don't they?

Yep that's right. Looking back on that forecast, I didn't do too badly in my opinion for the beginning part of winter, although I did underestimate the amount of snow we had, the general pattern I predicted wasn't too far off. The second half of that forecast went absolutely downhill and completely wrong pattern wise, although, it was a much milder February. So make of it what you will. Whilst partly right and partly wrong, I'm quite proud of how I did.

The problem with that, is FI constantly changes. At times last winter, FI was at just 48hrs

I know it's FI before anyone shouts at me, however that Northerly has cropped up on the 00z again. And remains with us until pretty much the end of the run. Interesting to note.

It's the model discussion. +192 in within the models, therefore, it's allowed to be discussed here. Looking ahead into FI is handy for trend spotting. Absolutely nothing wrong with it whatsoever. As for the latest 06Z model. As others have said, no sign of that cold spell at all, and if THIS run were to come off, it'd be generally quite spell of weather, with perhaps nightime frost and fog becoming more frequent.

We seem a bit behind on last years values now, then

I have to agree, it does get quite confusing with images being posted the night before. I like logging on in the morning and seeing Cyclonics morning updates. Good to see the snow building up more than last year, whether thats a sign or not is yet to be seen.

None whatsoever.

Pay me up front and I'll sort that out for you. No refunds.

I agree. Although the Pressure Anomaly charts are generally reasonably accurate 2 months out, I find

Thanks for posting this - I'm actually having an arguement with someone over on the Daily Mail forum because I've said that even if the Gulf Stream has slowed down, it's very unlikely that it's going to affect our weather. The paper you've posted only helps me prove the point I was making even more.

Just goes to show how hard it is for our little Island to see widespread snowfall. Siberia can see snowfall that covers an area the size of France in just one day, but it seems near on impossible for the entire UK to be covered with snowfall in that time frame.

Slightly off topic with regards to CET etc.. but this chart wouldn't be a bad one if we were in winter Sure, we have a massive displaced Azores High which really isn't going to be good for us if it doesn't move, but what we do have is the first signs of Northern Blocking becoming established, a Western Based NAO (I believe that's what this chart shows with High Pressure near the Eastern Seaboard) isn't the best for us I don't think, but, definitely potential in a chart like this, and definitely good to see signs of Northern Blocking already showing up on the models.

More snow across Iceland this year too. I love this thread! As for the snow moving towards Europe, I wouldn't worry too much yet. We're well up on last years levels already, lets hope we can sustain that.

Are those charts available anywhere else other than NW Extra?

The fact that hes basing his forecast on Volcanic Activity throws it out for me. The eruptions were not big enough to have an effect, nor did they produce enough Sulfur Dioxide to begin to reflect sunlight from the Earth. La Nina/Solar Activity may be favorable as he talks about, but definitely not volcanic activity.

Whilst the Solar Activity has increased, it is still WELL below what it should be going into Solar Maximum, so I don't think it's likely to be a problem. I also read that sun spots have dropped from the 100's to about 40 in the last couple of weeks or so, how true this is I don't know. Low Solar Activity is still a key feature, I think a strengthening La Nina combined with a Strengthening -QBO all point to a below average November and December. January is still uncertain, whilst a -QBO points to a colder January, a strengthening La Nina would suggest a milder January. So, maybe we'll see a cross over with colder spells interspersed with milder spells through January, before seeing a milder February. That's where I stand at the moment, anyway.

Yes I understand that. But the overal temperature for the winter 2010/11 came in below average, and the CFS was calling for below average temperatures.

We have to remember though, that, that was 3 years ago now. The models have been updated, no doubt tweaked and improved since then. They called last years cold winter generally correct in October I believe, I don't have a link to the archived charts and I'm going on memory, so don't hold me to that.

The purpose of YOUR post is..? The purpose of any of our posts is what? Other than for our own enjoyment?

The CFS charts painting an almost identical picture to last winter Very cold to start with, with High Pressure in the right places. Then towards January High Pressure sinks South, cutting off the cold airflow. The High Pressure shifting South coincides with La Nina strengthening, just like last year too. So, we could be looking at a near on identical winter to last year, if the La Nina and indeed, CFS forecasts turn out to be correct.

I have to say, before you edited your post I thought that you were calling me an idiot (the blog is mine) so I had replied quite angrily, explaining that I had been watching the charts for some time, and didn't just look at one and decide thats how winter was going to turn out, I then read your edit and quickly deleted my post :lol:

Basically year. The atmosphere over the Arctic is beginning to cool down again. The -10c Isotherm was back around the same time this year. In theory, the earlier the Arctic starts to cool down the better, because it will mean deeper cold will be sitting up in the Arctic come winter which could mean colder weather for us, depending on the type of weather patterns we see, of course.

February 1991 had a positive NAO/AO. But we had a Scandinavian High which brought cold snowy weather. Scandinavian highs are about as rare as a dodo these days. It's back!

November looks a bit bloomin' cold I know I know "The CFS change all the time" but they were pretty much spot on last winter from what I can remember, plus, it's been consistent in forecasting cold for November. What do you guys make of it?