Met4Cast

I really hope being here on the N Kent coast wont affect my chances too much, I'm not very hopeful though

I suggest we ignore Dew Point predictions from the GFS this morning. They have me at around 1-2c for about this time, and in reality its -0.9c

I think today has proved that the GFS has been downplaying the PPN. It certainly wasn't forecasting the PPN to be as widespread as it was today.

The streamer last February headed down the Thames into London. I'm on the North Kent coast and all that snow was passing over me which gave me a couple of inches before the streamer shifted about a mile Northwards, I spent most of the night watching the radar seeing that all that snow was just a mile North of me. This setup is different, instead of heading into London its going to be heading down into the South-East. North Kent etc.. obviously looking likely to do well out of this, but as the snow moves Southwards through the evening I think you could see a good 3-4 inches of snow.

I'd say that was about right. The snow is expected to stall across much of Kent and Sussex tomorrow night, with strong winds also I wouldn't be surprised to see some drifts measuring a foot.

Light snow in London, watching BBC News and they went live to London for something and it was snowing

I always associate snow clouds to be grey and misty looking, we have some coming over now actually.

Haha, after the big headline, the first line reads "It is unlikely there will be enough to make a snowman in most places" Yeah, I've always had trouble making snowmen in 6 inches of snow, its no where near enough.

Heres hoping I'm shocked to see the BBC still not showing any snow for East Anglia and the South-East for tomorrow, what are they playing at? The models suggest quite a spell of heavy snow through tomorrow and into tomorrow night

True - Although if the GFS got last nights temperatures completely wrong, surely it could be doing the same for this afternoon? I think it'll really be a case of watching the radar and seeing what it falls like when it gets here, I agree that warmer air does look likely to move down with it, although whether it'll be quite as warm as the GFS is suggesting is questionable. If it does turn more to rain, I think theres a slight chance of it turning wintry again on the back edge.

Its -6c here which is VERY impressive for the N.Kent coast. I waited up for hours as that finger of snow moved ever closer, and it fizzled out literally 2 miles away from me, If I had walked down to the beach I would have probably seen it falling out at sea had it been daylight Nevermind theres always the risk later this afternoon which I'm fairly confident will stay falling as snow across parts of Kent and Sussex, rather than turning back to rain like the BBC are suggesting.

Yeah, cloud seems to be getting a little thicker now. I really want to sleep

Yeah I've been watching that for the last 2 hours haha, its getting quite close now although it does seem to be stalling slightly The Netweather radar says that its snow, although how accurate that is I don't know. Air temperature is -3.2c and Dew Points are at -4c, so its certainly cold enough for it to be falling as snow.

Isle of Grain, right on the N Kent coast, I'm not really expecting much in the way of snow tomorrow, I think probably sleet at best considering I'm on the coast

If you run through tomorrows weather on the MO site http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_weather.html It shows it staying as snow and not really turning to rain

Yeah, I think 30-60 minutes of snow will be possible before it turns quickly back to rain, maybe a light dusting over higher ground.

When I was younger I thought I had invented lampost watching, I was always sitting at the window watching for snowflakes falling in the street lights, and everytime I'd see one I'd run downstairs, out the front door and go and stand under the lampost I'm not a secret lampost watcher, I often drive my family mad getting up every 5 minutes to look out the window haha

Haha I know. I fear it could be a few hours before it reaches our shores, and knowing my luck if I go to bed it'll hit here, but if I stay up it'll miss, its my day off tomorrow anyway so it doesn't matter too much.

I'm in the Isle of Grain so I'm keeping a very close eye on these showers, I was going to head off to bed but decided to check the radar before I did, wish I hadn't now, I'm not going to be able to go to bed until I see whether these showers hit me or not, we could have a potential streamer developing here me thinks.

We're not within 24 hours of the event yet though, as others have said, I suspect they'll start forecasting heavy snow come tomorrow.

I thought all BBC forecasts were live. When I cant sleep I often have the news on whilst doing other things and sometimes the forecaster will change.

Latest BBC forecast seems to suggest it'll fall as snow in the SE for longer, rather than turning to rain within an hour as previously forecasted

If you have cloud coming and going, this would explain why temperatures are fluctuating a little. Its currently -0.4c here with a Dew Point of -2.3c. I'm hoping to see some snow tomorrow on the leading edge before it turns back to rain

What a ridiculous way for them to forecast. Surely they can't base their forecasts on one run and one model? No wonder they always get it wrong

I agree with everything you've just said. It certainly does look like Eastern Kent will get the best out of this, specially with the heaviest of the snow through Thursday, Thursday night and Friday looks likely to be across the East (I'm on the NE Kent Coast, so this is fantastic for me, with low uppers etc.. I don't think the warmer North sea will have any affect other than allowing those showers to develop) I'm starting to get very excited with the potential now. Bring it on!!!