Met4Cast

We're now moving into a timeframe where forecasting snow becomes a little easier. Heres a quick outlook of what we can expect over the next few days. (This forecast is for the South-East of England only) Wednesday An area of rain, sleet and snow will push down from the North reaching our region sometime through the afternoon. The leading edge of this front is likely to be of sleet or snow specially over higher ground, although we could see snow down to lower levels for a short period of time. Light accumulations are possible specially over higher ground 1-2cm before it turns quickly back to sleet and then rain. As this front clears skies will clear and a frost will begin to develop, with the rain, sleet and melted snow the ground will be wet and with temperatures likely to fall below freezing there could be problems with ice come Thursday morning. Thursday A very cold and frosty start to the day, isolated sleet and snow showers across Eastern Kent to start the day, as we head through the day these sleet and snow showers will push further inland and could crop up just about anywhere. We're not expecting too many problems at this stage, light coverings are possible although snow showers fairly light with the heaviest being in the East, and later along the South-Coast specially towards the evening. Friday There is still some uncertainly about Thursday night into Friday, although current models suggest we'll see a more organised area of snow moving down from the North across our region. I think many areas will see some snow through Friday with accumulations of 3-5cm across a wide area, with perhaps 10cm being recorded locally, particularly over higher ground. I think the heaviest of the snow will fall in the Early hours of Friday morning and will turn more showery through the later stages of the morning and through the afternoon. But then through the evening there are some suggestions that we'll see another area of heavy snow moving through. The heaviest again being across the East of our region perhaps adding another 3-5cm on top of what we're likely to see during the early hours. Higher ground will be more favoured to see the snow settling, although I think even down to lower levels the snow is likely to settle. Its hard to say which areas will see the most amount of snow, but after a cold night on Thursday and frozen surfaces, any snow that does fall will settle so just about anywhere at risk from accumulations. There is still a lot of uncertainly over Fridays snowfall amounts so this will be updated on Thursday. This is how things currently stand. So turning even colder over the next couple of days with many areas being at an increased risk from sleet or snow showers.

Looking good - I'll post a forecast in a sec :blink:

I think we maybe seeing the early developments of a steamer across the Thames Valley. Increasing amounts of PPN are being shown on the radar in the last 30 minutes, cloud has certainly been rolling off the sea in the last hour and is increasingly getting thicker and thicker. The risk is very low, but not impossible.

Its clear just how uncertain the BBC are on Fridays potential. An hour ago they showed snow for London, and in their latest forecast just now they were showing sleet. It seems to change with each forecast.

I'm on the N Kent coast and Dew points are just below freezing here, 1c air temperature and dropping fairly fast.

I noticed there were some snow clouds coming over and then it started to rain, I looked outside and there were actually quite a few snow grains mixed in (I know it wasnt hail, it was far too soft and they were very small) So I've just had a heavy sleet shower here in S.E London - Now its cleared, its VERY blue outside, its almost as if I've got blue tinted sunglasses on, very weird.

According to the NW radar theres snow in the SE of England right now

I was looking at the risk for tomorrow too - But dewpoints are above freezing so I think anything other than some sleet in the heavier bursts is unlikely. We could see wet snow over the Downs I guess, but certainly no snow to lower levels. Monday though, if any showers develop they'll almost certainly fall as snow.

Its out at sea so I don't think any cameras would be picking it up. It shows rain showers moving into SE England though.

It shows snow just off the SE coast, and sleet over Southampton. How accurate is it?

The NW extra radar is showing SNOW in the channel, surely its wrong?

Haha awesome. That gives me slightly more hope of seeing some sleet tomorrow in the showers. Although upper temperatures seem to be a little high hmm, was you up quite high?

Are you sure it was sleet?

Yay the forum is up and running, for now at least.. The ECM is looking VERY good again tonight, the shortwave feature is a little further East which is good news for those who are looking for snow on Thursday. It'd be nice to see the GFS follow the ECM on the tracking of the shortwave now. If we can get it a little further away from the UK i'll be happier. All in all, a very good run from the ECM. Now all eyes go to tonights 18z.

Hmm are you sure? Dew Points seem WAY too high for snow. Haha, I meant mostly of rain rather than sleet or snow. I wasn't really thinking of hail, but yes, some of the showers may contain hail too

Yeah showers are coming in from the N Sea, all of which will be of rain, sadly.

People have said this time and time again, looking for snow at this stage is just pointless. With a setup like this, the longer the cold lasts the better, because we then have an increased risk of seeing some very good snowfalls. Lets get the cold here for a couple of days before we start worrying whether we'll see lots of snow. I'm keeping a close eye on Sunday/Mondays potential for snow in the SE, although its hardly likely to give more than a dusting, or 1-3cm across higher ground, thats also in a slightly more reliable timeframe and the GFS have been fairly consistent with the risk. The 06z GFS run seems to want to bring the PPN and colder air in through Sunday instead of Monday however. But like I say, lets get the colder air in, and then we can begin snow hunting.

True - But still, 2/3 is better than just one model going at it alone, like the ECM seems to be doing at the moment. We have the AO being forecasted to fall off the charts, and NAO being forecasted for negative too - I find it very hard to believe that we'll see nothing, specially as the GFS and UKMO have been very consistent so far. Tonight and tomorrows runs will be crucial.

I'm only 18, but even I know you cant pin everything onto one single run, specially when the two other main models are going for colder weather still

I couldn't agree with you more. I understand why people are concerned, usually the ECM is a very good model. Although this time around its consistency has been rubbish and thats what you really need to look for when predicting cold spells like this. The charts that show more consistency, which in this case would be the GFS and UKMO (bar the wobble the UKMO had yesterday) are more likely to be the accurate ones. The ECM has chopped and changed quite a lot in the last few days and I think the ECM will be back on board come tomorrow. We still have the big 2 on board, so I'm not worried either.

Some areas had snow in October and November last year - So its certainly possible.

Definitely an upgrade - The 06z showed a slightly warmer, yet brief 850hPa temperature after Sunday before going cold again come Thursday. But the 12z seems to want to keep the -5c air over us which is fantastic news. Now we look to the ECM and UKMO later today. Hopefully they will both be showing support.

What about the dew points though? http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn9610.png They're still above freezing, which is why I think we'll most likely see drizzle rather than snow flurries.

It means a Greenland high is much more likely to form. When the AO dives negative like that its a very good sign for colder weather. The 12z is rolling out and shows the high very very slightly further North and West, only by a couple of miles though.

I don't think we really need to worry about todays UKMO output. It seems the only person who is actually forecasting milder weather and thats Darren Bett I think we can safely say that it'll turn colder now. We have good support with the ECM and GFS, and until today the UKMO was also in support with the other models, as someone has just said, the ECM and GFS have both had a wobble and now its the UKMO turn.