jemtom
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Significant chance of a White Christmas
Forecast headline
Our seventh forecast suggests an increased chance of a white Christmas for parts of the UK. We currently think there is a significant chance of the UK being covered by a very cold polar airflow bringing the possibility of snow to northern and even southern areas. This type of set-up is more likely to bring snow to coastal districts and the north. For example, the North Yorkshire Moors and much of Scotland would tend to be favoured
Probabilities
Northern areas of the are considered to have a 45% chance of a white Christmas.
Southern areas of the are considered to have a 40% chance of a white Christmas.
Forecast issued
Update 1, 01/09/2008
Update 2, 05/09/2008
Update 3, 22/09/2008
Update 4, 26/09/2008
Update 5, 04/10/2008
Update 6, 12/10/2008
Update 7, 22/10/2008
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforeca...20forecast.aspx
Oh dear!
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....and here's mine........
maximum temperature......0c
heavy, driving snow
strong to gale-force E/NEly
....all starting on 24th December and finishing on 26th December.
Then we will have a thaw and the above weather will repeat itself starting on 31st December and finishing on 2nd January.
Nice.
Would be nice, but it's about as likely as Exeter winning the FA Cup this season.
Yes, that unlikely...
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On the subject of white Christmases I can remember only two, the last one was in the early 70s, there was one here a few years ago but alas I living in Norfolk at the time. This is why I said most likely to be mild, by that I don't mean a heat wave just not cold enough to snow. nothing wrong with a bit of fun but I can not see the point of these forecasts if you want fun why not just make it up of the top of your heads its got just as much chance of being right. Here's mine
5 degrees C
Light Rain
Winds SW/W force 4
Absolutely right, my sentiments exactly.
Here's mine....
Max 10c
Rain or drizzle at times.
SW force 6
In other words, bog standard!
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It wasn't directed at you personally, just your initial comment after Stuart's post was a typical one that follows every Sunday.
What I'm trying to say is it seems a lot of work and thought goes into creating these forecasts. Yes they may be wrong in the long run, but at the moment at least the organisations are having a go at forecasting. As i said before every Sunday i read comments that question the accuracy of these forecasts 3 months before the date. Once again i read that forecasts this early are thought to be less than 40% accurate.
Creating them in September I believe is part of the "fun" of the run-up to Christmas. A white Christmas gets many people excited, which is probably why these organisations try to forecast at an early stage. They let us see how the conditions change each week. Obviously as we get closer and closer to Christmas they will in time get more accurate.
But simply, don't take them too literally at this early stage, which is what many seem to do.
With regards to Michael Fish, I am simply pointing out that people criticise more than praise forecasts, and it is the mistakes that are often remembered more. That is just human nature.
I give thumbs-up to these organisations for actually participating in forecasting this event. It's always interesting to read the discussion on here of the possibilites of a White Christmas, and whilst i encourage these posts It does get annoying after a while when there are duplicate posts every Sunday about how accurate the forecasts are at this stage.
They give a rough idea, not a detailed, accurate forecast.
The last sentence was referring to general comments made each Sunday. If people don't like the forecasts issued at this early stage then the simple answer to that is don't bother reading them. I hope that clarifies a few things.
Regards.
Not really, but I appreciate your attempts at clarification. Best we leave it here me thinks, otherwise the Mods will decend like vultures....
Here's hoping for a white one!
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I agree with Blizzards on this one - i read this thread every week and once Stuart posts a forecast, regardless of the organisation (UKASF, TWO etc), there are always comments that follow that do nothing but moan about "how these organisations can predict 3 months in advance when the Met Office can't predict 3 days in advance", for example. In fact it gets quite boring reading these posts every Sunday. It seems there are some people that are always trying to find flaws and errors with the forecasts rather than praising the organisations for getting something right. A classic example is the Michael Fish error in 1987, this will always be associated with him because he might've got it wrong once. In this case i think we should be thanking these people for actually having a go at and spending time forecasting, rather than moaning about them.
I once read somewhere on the net that forecasts this advance are expected to be less than 40% accurate. My beliefs are that these organisations (UKASF, TWO, etc) create these forecasts mainly for fun rather than for anything accurate at this stage. It's always interesting to see how the models/forecasts vary each week.
With regards "every scenario covered by Mid December", i've had a look back through this thread and to me most if not all the forecasts posted are on a similar theme, mainly "cool and showery with a chance of snow in Scotland". This is one scenario. I am still yet to read one that states Christmas Day will be hot with a heatwave and warm southerly winds
The basic thought is, if you don't like reading "hopeful" forecasts rather than "accurate" ones then don't both reading nor posting to this thread.
Regards.
I've got to say Maidstone I really cannot see where you are trying to go with this?
IMHO forecasts are never issued for fun (at least they shouldn't be) and you point regarding Mr Fish is totally lost on me.
As for the "every senario covered by mid-December", now that is what you call a bit of fun.
Finally you last sentance - what is all that about??
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Why is all you can do is find fault!
Its all a bit of fun predicting this and theyre only going by what the charts suggest yet all you can do EVERY week is find something wrong!!!
Most people would probably think its all a bit of fun at the end of the day yet all i see is Fuss.
It's not about finding fault Blizzards, it's about holding and espousing a contrary opinion, which at the end of the day is a major purpose of a forum.
In my opinion (clearly shared by some others) this kind of thing is both pointless and irrelevent, however I'm not claiming that makes me right and Stuart wrong, or visa versa.
The doubters are not making a "fuss" as you suggest, but simply airing their views.
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By the time we reach mid Dec Stuart should have covered absloutely every conceivable weather senario, so one of them is almost certain to prove correct.
No offence or disrespect meant, but this kind of soothsaying is complete and utter twaddle IMO and belongs to the same genre as Piers Cobblers and his ilk!
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http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/..._timeseries.png
Looking good so far...
Encouraging yes, but all pretty marginal stuff tho IMHO and a trend that could easily be slowed, perhaps significantly.
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Couldn't agree more, GW again makes assumptions about what the net result will be and has only listened to those quarters that tell him the result that he wants to hear. Far from proven, and there are plenty that have a completely different view point.
Perhaps you'd be kind enough to give us the benefit of your viewpoint on the subject then Ribster, rather than simply decrying others who are brave enough to nail their colours to the mast.
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Hi again stewfox!
Though maybe we should adjourn to the enviro thread I'll jot a quick reply here. As Carinth has pointed out in the 50's the ice extended to Iceland and probably did similar in other areas that allowed 'expansion' so , no ,max extent did not used to be so constant.
The Antarctic is changing. Current thinking has southern ocean waters now penetrating through the circumpolar current, which previously had allowed a kind of 'splendid isolation' for the Antarctic continent, starting with the areas jutting out into the southern oceans (the peninsula) but moving inexorably toward the main shorelines of Antarctica. If you plotted concentric circles around the south pole you'll plot the movement of the 'warm waters' closer and closer to the main body of Antarctic coastline with the Wilkins breakup (this last Antarctic mid-winter) plotting the max extent. Project the line further in and you will see the peril the rest of the Antarctic ice shelves now face....esp. if winter is no protection to them.
Again, an ice free arctic is more worrisome for the root change in 'energy'. The pole used to act as a kind of 'global thermostat' reflecting over 90% of the incoming energy back out. The thermostat is now broken and the 'dark waters' (now free of ice over summer) absorb over 80% of the incoming energy. So from a less than 10% absorption to over 80% absorption means a lot more warming....even without our messing around. Then we have the perma-frost, 4/5ths of which resides in the northern hemisphere. Current studies now show that they hold twice as much methane/CO2 as previously thought. When the coast is ice free the warmth penetrates up to 70 miles inland so the permafrost in this area melts and the gasses that were trapped there spill out into the atmosphere further adding to the greenhouse effect (and how!!! with Methane being a 'super greenhouse gas capable of 15 times the amount of warming than CO2 alone!!).
Some deep sea current takes over 150yrs to complete their 'trip' so we are only now getting waters warmed in the late 1800's popping back up .....what happens when the water from the 1980's starts to pop back up????
This IMHO is the crux of the whole matter. Open ocean absorbs heat at an alarming rate compared to ice cover, therefore the greater the surface area of water exposed the greater the warming - surely this is not rocket science?
OK this year has only seen the 2nd lowest minimum ice extent since satallite analysis began, but that's very thin ice (no pun intended) to be pinning any hope of a pattern change on.
Major sea level rises look as inevitable as night following day IF the current overall warming trend continues (and no one has yet given a viable reason why it won't). Indeed the significant local warming we've witnessed recently across much of Greenland for instance may make this a reality much sooner than many expected, even as recently as the turn on the century.
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If I may Field that for you Jemton.
I think the folk are concerned that there is less 'volume' of ice than ever recorded before, granted , it may be spread thin so as to not give an ice extent record this year (only second lowest eh?) but to loose 56% of all the arctic perennial ice since we started logging such things cannot be pushed aside (unless you can convince why it can of course and my mind is always open to such things 'cos it'll make my life jollier......so long as it is based in cold reality and not wishy thinking).
To see the North coast of Ellesmere island shed a further 23% of it's fringing shelf (leaving 5 storey high bergs to ice break around the arctic at the beck and call of wind and current.....why the sneck Russia need their new 'Super breaker' when you can just follow one of those babys around.....)
To have both Seaways wide open for the first time in history......
Must I go on? (I know I do somewhat but fercrissakes man!)
Some folk will fail to accept the facts GW, even when high tide brings water levels up to their bedroom window sills
...The reality is Arctic warming is happening very much as predicted, however the speed in which it is happening is breathtaking and totally unpredicted. My thoughts are we have not only reached the tipping point, we've actually tipped, with even greater acceleration likely from here on.
However, sat here at only 24ft above MSL I sincerely hope I'm wrong!
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doesnt look good... be interesting again to see what impact this will cause for Autumn and the rest of winter.. its very worrying that multiyear ice has vanished so quickly and during our lifetime...
Jemtom im not entiely sure you can compare whats happening up n the artic to the antartic.. completely different ball game.. remember last winter was a record high (based on 30 years) and summer levels were also high...
does anyone know if sea levels have risen or if there has been any impact on ocean currents based on all the ice melt?
I wasn't drawing a direct comparison OSW, just making the point that further unprecedented events (we'll have to wait and see what actually trarspires) in connection with the overall trend are likely during the coming Antarctic Summer.
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Record overall low or not doesn't really matter, the trend continues and at local level the warming has been alarming. We have seen unprecedented events this Summer up in the Arctic and I expect we'll see similar things happening down south once again during the Antarctic Summer.
Whilst it's encouraging to see some degree of slow down up north this season, I fear in the grand scheme of things it matters little, if at all.
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Another very worrying Summer of melt in the Arctic. Increased amounts of open water have absorbed more and more warmth, with far less ice around to reflect this back into space. Have we reached the critical tipping point? Only time will tell, but if not I believe we are far closer to it than many thought we'd be even just 4 or 5 years ago.
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LEGE 150500Z VRB01KT CAVOK 08/07 Q1015=
For the 2nd night in a row minima have been well down into single digits at Gerona (Barcelona). Quite remarkable for a Spanish coastal station in mid Sept, especially considering the sea temps are still up around 26c.
An overnight min here of 18c below the current sea temp of 15c would be -3c, something that we rarely see in mid Winter let alone late Summer.
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Gerona (Barcelona) saw a min in single digits last night, indeed even at 10pm (prime time for eating Al Fresco) the temperature was 12C!
LEGE 140500Z VRB01KT 7000 FEW030 SCT120 09/08 Q1015=
I bet many a holidaymaker on the Costa Brava was wondering what the hell is going on here.
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It's difficult to get a clear picture of the flooding due to this hurricane until it gets light,
but at the moment it doesn't look much worse than we had in the UK last year.
I think you'll find it will be considerably worse than anything we experienced in the UK last year Diane, but as you say until it's light and winds have abated enough to get the planes and choppers airborn we really won't know the full extent of the devastation.
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QUOTE (Diane_W @ 12 Sep 2008, 09:37 PM)Most of us on here wouldn't do that Jem, and the printed word can be difficult when it's no your first language you are typing in as some phrases don't translate too well!...The eye is now fully developed.
What on earth makes you say that? It is the most ragged sad excuse for an open eye I have seen on a cyclone! It is far from "fully developed" !
It's stuff like the above that I refer to GW. I'm not suggesting for one minute that Opp was trying to cause offence or ridicule anyone, but this type of reponse does put off some of the less confident/competent posters, which IMO is counter productive to a forum.
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I think it's worth pointing out that not all folk on here have the same level of knowledge and understanding of Hurricanes, but that should not stop them from posting comments for the fear of ridicule.
Perhaps some of the more knowledgable members could refrain from making snide remarks to others, even if accompanied by one of these
and accept that none of us know it all. -
Needed a sit down after checking the recordings from today.
1...Dry
2...Roughly 7hrs of sunshine (about 10% of the entire montly total to date)
3... 22.6c max
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Slate grey again here and only 16.8c at 11am, if this is Summer then roll on Autumn!
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I saw a small patch of blue sky (yes I did say blue sky!) here about an hour ago, but not surprisingly it quickly disappeared and it's now as dull as ditchwater once again.
I don't keep official sunshine records, just some crude figs that I jot down on a daily basis. However even adding 15% for underestimating error, I'm still sat at less than 80hrs for August to date, (the reality could actually be mid to upper 60's) which is way, way beyond a joke.
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Yet another depressingly dull Summers day, but on the plus side it does feel reasonably warm.
Tho August to date has been hideously cool and wet, the stand out feature to date will have to be the lack of sunshine, in fact I've seen far more hours across 26 days in the very depths of Winter.
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We've certainly enjoyed a Mediterranean climate here in Cornwall this Summer, but sadly one that is about 10ft below the surface.... :lol:
and accept that none of us know it all.
Winter Lrf By Rjs And Bftp
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
A great effort chaps, however I fall into the category of hoping you'll be right but expecting you'll be wrong - as ever, time will tell, but I'll be the first to congratulate and concede defeat if you are subsequently proven correct. Good luck.