jemtom
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Posts posted by jemtom
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Unfortunately, realistically that's the best you can really do with LRF's at this current time. You can only really go with probabilities hence things like "is more likely" or "is less likely" I think it wil be some years if ever when we will have powerful enough computer models to predict seasons with high detail.
Yes I can see that and accept it Don, but as they are patently of very little use to anyone you've got to wonder why they produce them at all?
This type of forecast is absolutely pointless IMO. However, this winter is likely to be less mild in most regions than last winter. For me it smacks of deperation to at least get one thing right, but even then we're only treated to another "is likely to be"
Hold the front page - *This Winter is likely to be colder than last Summer.
*Note if this goes wrong I didn't say it would be....
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on the tin it says above average based on the 1971-2000, with above average rainfall
No doubt what may erk some people is that they do not mention snow!
whatever they say there are some who will complain about it.
Does it John?? Not IMO.
What it says is stuff like "is more likely" or "is less likely". I'm afraid as a forecast that is about as useful as a chocolate teapot.
It's no different to me saying, December is more likely to be colder than November. It's not saying it will be, it's not saying it won't be, in fact it's saying nothing - much like that entire forecast.
I fully understand the problems surrounding LRF's and the very last thing I'd advocate is the MO producing a kind of PC styleee forecast that has recently constipated the DE.
However if the LRF they produce is to have any value, especially commercially, they have to adope a much less wooly, fence sitting approach.
OK they got caught with their proverbial pants down with this Summers forecast, but so what? This is the weather after all and no one (PC excepted of course..
) has a god given right to be correct all the time.I think the population in general would be far more forgiving of an inccurate forecast than one that is clearly designed to "not be wrong", rather than to be right.
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best latest odds:
london 7/1
Exeter,liverpool, cardiff,leeds, dublin & manchester 6/1
birmingham 9/2 ???
Aberdeen 9/4
theyv got wind ov summat as odds have certainly shortended of late!
Where did you see these odds mate?
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To the tune of - In the bleak mid winter..
In 21st century winters,
Snow and ice is rare.
In fact you probably have more chance,
of seeing a grizzly bear.
All we get is mild and damp, mild and damp.
Is it any wonder, TEITS has to ramp.
In 21st century winters,
You won't see much frost.
It's because of Global Warming
Ignore it at your cost.
All we get is wind and rain, wind and rain
Yes I agree, it's an ass in the pain.
In 21st century winters,
Low cloud and drizzle rule.
Don't check the Scandi webcams
They'll make you bloody drool.
All we get is fog and mist, fog and mist
You all know what's next, so I will resist...
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Hello Richard,
Thank you for your email and your obvious interest in Paddington.
The fact is that the first Paddington book was written over 50 years ago when weather patterns were significantly different to those we have now. So, even though snow in London in early November was rare in those days it certainly did happen from time to time. So, although this wasn't based on a specific event, it was based on a combination of memories from Michael Bond's childhood with a small sprinkling of artistic licence!
We hope this answers your question (which, we must confess, has also occurred to us when reading those particular stories!)
Best Wishes
Paddington Bear's Website
That bear writes a very good e-mail, can't be easy with all that marmalade on his paws...
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Last one from me, I'm sending myself over the edge here...
To the tune of Mistletoe and Wine...
Xmas time, vodka and lime
Barcardi and coke washed down with white wine
Snow on my back lawn
Ice in the trees
I'm staying in to get drunk, coz it's going to freeze...
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Good ol Bing...
I'm dreaming of a White Xmas
With at least three feet of snow
May the icicles glisten
As NetWeather members listen
To the arrival of another Polar Low
I'm dreaming of a White Xmas
Yes I dream of one every night
Tho as the past has shown us
One would really be a bonus
But all we'll likely get is more mild **ite
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To the tune of, All Come all ye Faithful.
Oh come all ye sleet showers, sharp frosts and huge blizzards
Oh come ye, oh come ye south, to Great Britain
Come and bombard us, bury us is in white stuff.
Oh come bring winter mayhem
Oh come bring winter mayhem
Oh come bring winter mayhem
From Lerwick to Scilly.
I'm here all week... :lol:
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Here is a quick one I thought of
WHEN A NEW WEST IS BEST IS BORN
A ray of hope flickers in the sky
cause every chart shows a Greenland High
All accross the UK Dawns a brand new morn.
This comes to pass when a new West Is Best is born
Strange Brian, I was working on much the same thing.
A ray of hope flickers in the Sky.
What's that I see, is it a Greeny High?
All across the land we await each brand new morn.
Hoping to view, more cold synoptic porn!
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love it SF, a song writer of our very own.
How about some new words to carols as it cannot be that long to Christmas?
How about... To the tune of Good King W.
Good Queen Elizabeth will look out, on the feast of Stephen.
To see the snow across her Kingdom, deep and crisp and even.
Everywhere from Wick to Poole will be bloody freezing.
Which I think we all agree, will be very pleee, eeess, ingggg.
I'll get my coat...
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SF - I suggest you stick with the current medication for now, but I also urge you to seek a 2nd opinion at your earliest convienience..... :lol:
Having said that I've just caught myself singing them out loud for the 3rd time...
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Well I thought we used Manley, that's why I went for 11c. Had I known it was Hadley/MO obviously I'd have gone for 10.9c.. Doh!!
I woz robbed...
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I like a really cold, frosty night with some dense freezing fog. I then like to see the fog slowly thinning during the morning, leaving a fine, sunny but very cold afternoon, with sub zero temperatures.
Sadly days like that here are about as common as rocking horse poo...
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Not half as big a smile as the one I had reading back through the September one I'll be bound!
No update on Manley so who knows? But chillywilly out there at the mo. Shawbury is at 4C, and that's near one of the official stations. As I said yesterday, 10.9C or 10.8C twill be.
Nah, I said 11.0c, therefore 11.0c it will be... :o
No wonder SF has found this fred very amusing, if only professional sportmen showed this level of passion and commitment we'd be world champs at everything.... :lol:
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Thats going to be extremely close. However, it wouldn't have if the significant warmth you called for earlier in the month came off
BFTP
Well even I don't get everything right...
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I'm still pretty comfy with my call of 11.0c
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Chuck some CET estimations and you have a complete LRF.....good luck with your punt
BFTP
Cheers mate, need to add though that is my prediction, not my wish list. Actually hope I'm totally wrong.. :lol:
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Well you can keep your AO's BO's AGHSO's and ENSO's, likewise your QBO's, Arctic Ice packs and IKEA flatpacks... :lol:
On a serious note there is definately a case for having to much info these days, which can and often does influence the best long range forecasting tools of all.... gut feeling and experience.
My gut feeling and experience favours another mild or even very mild Winter, with drier than average conditions across England and Wales.
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I would add a couple of words here.
Taxi.
LOL-Good point Cat 5...
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I am just saying that it is an obvious statement to make. We had a very mild winter last year, i assume it does not take a rocket scientist to 'predict' this winter is likley to be cooler!
It is like saying that next year is likley to see less rain during June and July than this year. Yes, of course it is not likley to be as much rain but they are covering themselves by saying "Likley" - so if we end up getting more rain next summer they are not wrong by what they are saying now. i.e we did not say it will not happen but it was just not likley.
Am I waffling...!?
Yes inanely... :lol: But I agree with your basic premise.
Here's another one for you which I guarantee will be right. "There will be some snow this Winter, but not as much as in 46/47...
I'll get my coat...
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I'm confused, why do you see this as covering your back? Last year was one of the mildest winters ever, they're saying it's not going to be that mild but is still likely to be above average, where's the issue with them saying that?
That's a fair point Paul - I think 90% of people reading that forecast will not have a good grasp of, or have any major interest in weather, so putting up figures and stats would probably only serve to confuse.
By saying it will not be as mild as last Winter does at least give the lay person a starting point to refer to, but as I said there are many such statements that could be consided in a similar way.
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Thanks for that.
I find the following statement very frustrating.
"temperatures are likely to be lower than those experienced in the very mild winter last year"
Talk about cover your back...!
Yep, but that's about as bold a statement as you are likely to get from the MO regarding this type of thing. This is not about getting the forecast right, so much as not getting it wrong, so the best way to ensure that is to stick with what is 99% safe.
It's no different than saying, "this Winter will see some cold spells, but it will not be as cold as 1962/63"
A play on words basically, but the overriding point is that this Winter is expected to be rather mild or mild, with any colder spells being more likely both early and late.
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My call was 11.0c and for the first time this month I think that might prove to be a little high. Gonna be very close though IMO.
MetOffice updated Winter Forecast
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by jemtom
John - I have no desire nor intention of getting embroilled in any kind of arguement regarding the above.
I'll accept your arguement, I don't agree with it, but that really doesn't matter. However I certainly would not post such things as... its your kind of comment that makes me despair.
I really do not see how that type of thing furthers good debate, which I thought, perhaps naively, was what this forum was all about.
If the likes of yourself are unable to resist making such comments, others will simply see it as a green light to be even more disrespectful.