jemtom
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Posts posted by jemtom
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It doesn't hurt to dream I suppose, but I think most of us accept that anything other than a mild Winter will be a bonus and even anything close to average will be most welcome.
After such a wet Summer there should be some degree of balance, but I expect that to manifest itself in the form of a drier, warmer Autumn, with the familiar mild Bartlett dominated pattern returning for the bulk of Winter.
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Whilst the Summer and more particularly August will be remembered primarily for being cool and wet here, the main feature in my opinion has been the woeful lack of sunshine.
This month has been more akin to November in respect of sunshine hours, with day after day of dull weather. Until recently I thought SAD was the preserve of the long, dark winter months, but not any more.
If I had to sum up the last 12 months in a couple of words then perennial Autumn springs readily to mind, with the length of the days and the leaves on the trees being the only tangible signs of what season we're actually in.
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How can it be distinctly poor if June and July was ok ?. The summer at worse has been average with a bit more rain
. June cet just below average ,Cet for July and August above average, the final CET for August might turn out to be around average (depends on the last week)Its been a very average summer, yes poor if you like 30c + heat but nothing unusual
It may ultimately prove to be a "very average" summer according to the numbers, but the reality is it's been absolutely woeful in the eyes of Joe Public. Here in Cornwall it will heavily contribute towards economic ruin for many involved in the tourist trade and down here at least few, if any, would agree it's been anything approaching average.
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My initial hunch is that Thursday will not see 29C, maybe 26-27C. Friday is looking like the hottest day this week, say 28-29C.
Incidentally, MO way out today with SE temps - forecasting 26C in London as late as this morning but only reaching 23C.
Yes and their 29c for Friday is looking equally if not even more inaccurate, at least as things currently stand.
3 or 4c adrift at T +72hrs is forgiveable, but not when within the 2-4hr range as was the case today.
All in all a pretty poor effort.
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A 30c looks pretty unlikely to me during this spell, but I think we should just about manage to see the highest temp of the year so far at around 28.5c
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Several times last Winter we looked at the synoptics and said, "if only this was Summer it would be boiling" and several times already this Summer we've looked at the synoptics and said "if only this was Winter it would be freezing"
That just seems the way of things in the UK, plenty of perfect synoptic set ups, but always at the wrong time of year to produce sustained heat or chill.
I expect we'll be saying much the same this Winter too.
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Yep, they have been very lucky in Greece across recent Winters, but as in most walks of life someones loss is someone elses gain.
Anyway I think the inhabitants of Athens are far from lucky today, with temps already up to 9c the thaw must be rapid and very messy I'd imagine.
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What a difference a day makes - after 6 days of unbroken sunshine and very mild temps (yesterday excepted) it's cold and grey today, with even a few spots of light rain in the breeze.
Noon temps only 5.1c, so will likely max out some 10c cooler than earlier this week. Roll on tomorrow when at least the sunshine should be back to offset to chill.
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Everything is in blossom here, including the Rhodedendrons, which even by recent standards is quite ridiculous.
Things were already at least a month advanced this time last week, but 6 days of unbroken sunshine have warmed the soil significantly and brought everything on even more.
I'm expecting the plumb and apple trees to have ripe fruit by May at this rate... :lol:
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Another beautifully sunny day here, but noticeably colder. At noon yesterday it was 13.4c, having risen 9.1c in the proceeding 3hrs and 7.5c in the proceeding 2hrs.
Today at noon it was only 5.8c, having risen only 2.1c in 3hrs and 1.4c in 2hrs.
Can't and won't complain though, it's still absolutely glorious out there.
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Clear here overnight, min 2.8c - Still managing to cling onto some sunshine this morning, but there is at least 3 or 4 oktas of stratus around at about 1000ft, with a distinctly cold feel in the breeze.
ON any other February morning this would be considered a beautiful start, but after 5 days of unbroken sunshine it now feels something of a let down, which in reality of course it's not.
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Fell slightly short of yesterday in the end, with only 14.8c, but another gloriously fine, sunny day that actually felt warmer with less breeze.
After 5 in a row I'm now being greedy and hoping for much the same tomorrow, but I suspect that pesky low cloud over the continent might even drift this far west by morning...
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14.7c here at 2pm, so 15c+ now looks probable, making it the warmest day of the spell. I think the BBC/MO forecast of a max of 17c in Manch this afternoon looks far to high, but Trawscoed was up to 16c at 13:00hrs, so another 18c there still looks possible.
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I think you're thermometer's either faulty or in the sun.
18.8C is too high.
Nuff said!
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The Nutty Professor has gone very quiet - I wonder why??? :huh:
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Amazing stuff again today, the temperature in Manchester went from 2C at 9.20 to 11C at 11.50. Temperatures seem to continue rising until about 2 or 2.30 and then there is quite a sharp drop after 4pm.
Very much the same here - I went from 4.2c at 9am to 13.3c at noon, so a rise of 9.1c across 3hrs. However it was only 5.8c at 10am, so the rise of 7.5c across the 2hrs to noon looks even more stark.
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Min here last night was 2.7c, already up to 13.3c at noon and will probably max out close to 15c. So a diurnal range of around 12c look quite likely, which is pretty good going for this very temperate neck of the woods.
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Another picture perfect day here on the north shore, with this likely to prove the 5th cloud free day on the bounce (apart from some type 1 cirrus on Sunday).
Winds are 10mph from the East, the noon temperature was 13.3c (having risen 9.1c since 9am), with a projected max close to 15c.
It just don't get any better than this in February, with the kids on half term break down here being very lucky this year.
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I've also heard about those snow anomalies, here in Sweden much inland and in the mountain regions the snow depths are quite big, not due to cold weather what most people think, but to milder and more moistrous conditions, which have been here the whole winter. And because of the avg. temps a normal year inland are around -10'c in the winter, a few degrees more doesn't make any difference, the day temps just stay more close to zero by giving bigger intensity when it snows. But if you live more near the coastal regions like Stockholm and Oslo and so on, the winter climate becomes much more sensitive, a few degrees more completely ruins winter since avg temps are just a few degrees below zero. And because of that the winter here where i live has mostly been completely snow free. Just a few snaps with snow depth for a couple of days, but really nothing special. February is the month here you think should be very cold with snow and -10'c days, but now it is a +4'c outside, warm sun and chirping birds, nothing i can remember i've seen in my life this far!
Hi Sillkalven - Our friends near Sunsvall are reporting much the same as you describe, despite being a good deal farther north than your location.
4c must feel very Springlike for you in the middle of February, but here in the UK we saw 18.2c yesterday - that's more like Summer than Spring...
Please keep up your reports from Sweden, they are fascinating.
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Average temps for Fagernes are High -3C and Low -10C ... so I guess -4C to -27C shows actually cooler than the average but well within the norm, like I said, regional differences abound.
That said this report shows what December was like:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/...ratropics.shtml
Tks for that link Matt.
December pretty much bears out my thoughts, but those anomolies across Finland in particular look even greater than I expected. Will be interesting to see how the Winter as a whole pans out, but talking to friends near Sundsvall, Sweden recently it's been one of the mildest Winter there that either can remember - and both of them can go back a bit too....
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I was up in Fagernes (Oppland) two weeks ago, and the temps ranged from -27C to -4C whilst I was there. Chatting to the locals they said that this year was their best year for snow in 12 years, and it was falling like there was no tmrw. Regional and National differences abound.
Unlike the UK of course mild weather in Scandinavia generally mean greater amounts of snow, with colder Winters tending to be dominate by drier conditions.
I've not seen any stats yet re the Winter as a whole across Scandi, but I would expect this one to prove unseasonably mild across all 4 countries, with the greater warmth anomolies likely the farther north you travel.
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As a inhabitant of coastal Cornwall it's impossible to get my head around those staggering temperature changes across such small timeframes.
10c down to 5c across a 3 or 4hr period is about as extreme as it gets round these parts, pathetic really.... http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif
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Hi JT. At a guess, I would say its not extreme (especially as it is not unheard of) but well above normal.
Extreme doesn't have to mean "unheard of"Chris.
9c during the first half of February would have a return period of about 50yrs, so although probably not unprecedented, as a near once in a lifeltime event it qualifies as extreme IMO.
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6-9c across large swathes of Arctic Norway this morning - spent several Winters up there in the past and freeze/thaw conditions are not unheard of, but I'd suggest 9c is extreme, even by modern day standards.
. June cet just below average ,Cet for July and August above average, the final CET for August might turn out to be around average (depends on the last week)
Heat tolerance in the summer
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I experienced maxima of 42c and minima of 31c in Turkey during early July 98. Obviously the heat was fierce and it felt like a furnace in the full sunshine, but as humidity was extremely low none of my family suffered any form of discomfort or heat exhaustion.
I remember sitting on the balcony one evening at 11pm and the temperature was still 36c. Oddly after dark it often felt a good deal more humid, oppresive in fact at times and I'd sweat profously despite little or no movement - apart for reaching for my beer that is... :huh:
Luckily on the 2nd week it cooled down a bit, but after that holiday I vowed never to be to tight to pay for aircon again.