[October 2007 CET]

Philip had the Manley down 0.2C yesterday, before the really serious cold set in. This last night has been very cold indeed: 0C at Benson and not much above that throughout the rural land. Colder than even the BBC were forecasting - although to be fair they do give urban temps. I notice the NW tracker has dropped 0.25C in just 7 hours!

The CET is going down like a stone from here ... hold onto your hats!

Meanwhile for the final week the persistent mid-Atlantic block and bitterly cold northerly is showing up yet again on the models - the 0z now being onboard. It's starting to get to the cusp of serious proposition rather than just FI. The transition occurs well, well, inside FI actually and you can see the set up by T144. So not really model 'silliness' Stratos, though I'd agree it might not come off. Do like me after a night disturbed by a young baby: wake up and smell the coffee!

Deary me WiB, where has the level head gone all of a sudden? I've seen sleep deprivation do some strange things to people, but this.......

I think the only thing likely to be bitter is your coffee, perhaps you should drink it rather than smell it....

[October 2007 CET]

My pre month call was 11.0c, thinking now I might just be a tad low with this one.

[Todays Sunday People]

Ribster - don't shoot the messenger...

[Tuesday 9th October 2007]

The CF has now cleared, having delivered a massive 1.1mm. The radar however does show a large area of ppt between here and Ireland, so some more rain does look likely this morning and perhaps into the early afternoon.

[Todays Sunday People]

Well I suppose it helps to sell papers!!

[Todays Sunday People]

http://www.people.co.uk/news/tm_headline=i...-name_page.html

[October 2007 CET]

A nice fat round 11.0c is my punt.

[May 07]

Thanks Roger and Shuggee, much appreciated.

[June C.E.T]

I'm anticipating a month of two halves, with much warmer, settled weather likely during the last fortnight, but certainly nothing spectacular. Therefore 15.3c is my call.

Al

[May 07]

Does anyone know the highest temperature recorded so far this month across the UK??

Thanks in anticipation.

Al

[Glastonbury Festival 2007]

I remember me and a few others (WIB one of them) predicting 2005s festival would be the hottest ever (around 33c at the time) I don't think that was the outcome...

Actually WIB was right with his 33c, 13c in the morning and 20c in the afternoon.

[1 In 8 Chance of Record Breaking Temps this Summer...]

Thanks for that John

I must confess to having not read the full text in finite detail, but the very fact they have dropped the 8/1 odds thingy in their latest release suggests they appear to accept it was a (quote) daft thing to propose in the first place.

I appreciate as an ex employee you hold the MO in high regard, I on the other have a completely opposing view, with their vague and ambiguous releases high on my list of things they do that rankle.

I hope in offering this opinion I'm not infringing any of the forum rules, nor offending you in any way, but if so I apologise in advance

.

[1 In 8 Chance of Record Breaking Temps this Summer...]

If we devide the summer into nine, ten day periods (they said 8 but its easier), i think what they are saying is that there will be a period of around ten days, when record temperatures may be experienced, this seems plauable to me, and i would say that June is the most likely candidate.

I'm not really sure I follow your logic there SB , but thats hardly surprising as I'm not very bright.

To my way of thinking the record is statistically about a 1 in 100 event, so if you chuck some global warming into the mix, then add a bit of exagerated local warming for NW Europe you're down to around 30 or 40/1 in reality.

No doubt some bright spark will shot my theory full of holes, but that's how I see it.

[1 In 8 Chance of Record Breaking Temps this Summer...]

I see no justification whatsoever for the MO to quote an 8/1 chance of the highest summer temp record being broken this year.

There is no statistical evidence to support this claim, therefore it amounts to little more more than guesswork and conjecture, probably with a liberal dose of marketing thrown in for good measure.

The fact that our climate is currently in a warming trend and we've had a very warm Spring to date does not mean a recording breaking hot Summer will automatically follow.

IMO the true meteorological odds of the record going this summer is around 30/1. However if the good fellows of a well known betting exchange are to be believed the odds of 100f being hit is as low as 2.3/1 - this sounds like a very poor bet to me and I shall be laying it accordingly with my hard earned.

[Sunday 29th April 2007]

The temp peaked at 21.1c here near Bude, Cornwall at 14.40hrs, making it the warmest day of the year so far.

As a footnote at 15:00UTC the temp was a stunning 21c in N Iceland, whilst at the same time it was only 20c in N Egypt, 17c in N Algeria and only 13c in N Portugal....

The worlds going mad I tell ye, mad, mad, mad!!!!!!!

[April CET]

I still think that Manley will come out no higher than 11.3C rounded up.

That looks about the mark to me too SB, with max temps likely to be lower than previously forecast across the last 3 days, as indeed they have been today by some considerable margin.

Still a staggering month though all things considered.

[April CET]

Back on topic - looks to me as if rather persistent low cloud both today and across the weekend may keep the CET a little lower than predicted.