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gottolovethisweather

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Posts posted by gottolovethisweather

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by STORMBOY

    I always said the GFS 06z is the best run of the day whistling.gif

    Confidence is growing for a reload from the east with that monster high edging closer. As for this weekend, it will become wet and windy but the rain may then turn to snow in the north & east as milder air to the west fails to take control but it will be a close run thing.

    Now that last bit I do believe could well happen. Whether it holds true for me, who is to say but the further north and east then game on. I think i'll be lucky to see 5c by the weekend in my location, what are the various models indicating in regard to Air Temp and DP profiles come the weekend?

    The focus is definitely on the next 48-72 hours in my eyes and my bet is the reload, like it or not and purely gut feeling I suppose here. Is the upcoming period as previously set in stone as many suggest, again can someone with the knowledge confirm the expected temp profiles, I'll go check the models in the meantime.

    Many Thanks to RJS, TEITS, JH, GP, SM etc. for their input in the days past and the days to come.

    I'm loving this winter and it's got to be worth documenting for the history books.

    STORMBOY

    South Central England Cold Spell Discussion:

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Hi Stormboy,

    as a fellow Newbrarian I would like to know whereabouts you live, do you live in Newbury itself or on the hillier outskirts? I ask as I measured the snow this morning and it came to 6cm, which is quite a disparity to the nearly 10cm you have measured overnight.

    I live on Fir Tree Lane just off the A4 so a fairly flat location!

    Cheers Ian

    Hello Joneseye.

    I leave near Wash Common down the valley road estate and are often prone to colder spells with snow, ice and frost even when the town centre has rain for example. The 10cm I measured at 9am was more like 9cm but whatever, it now amounts to double the amount lying i.e approx 8 inches level cover compared to the previous 6 inches that had thawed to 4 inches.

    I'm AdamAnt whistling.gif that snow will most likely still be on the ground (well certainly locally it will) just in time for the cold reload after the weekend. But heck, what do I know?

    Cheers

    STORMBOY

    PS the DP has finally reached above zero in the last hour here.

    South Central England Cold Spell Discussion:

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Well, still it snows (11 hours and counting) here in Newbury.

    190mm i.e nearly 8 inches laying snow at 9am so I'm heading into my 8th continuous day of snow cover on top of the 8 continous days I had prior to Xmas. yahoo.gif

    Not so good for those attempting to get to work as the additional 4 inches or so we had overnight is laying thick on the roads too.

    Still looking good here in my eyes.

    Very lucky that it is my day off today.

    Snowy Cheers

    STORMBOY

    PS awaiting the anticipated reload after the weekend, its not ending yet!

    South Central England Cold Spell Discussion:

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Still the same lovie. A bit more than a dusting a nice little covering but no where near 1/2 cm or owt. Its snowing lightly too. So will take ages to amount to anything.

    You just want want want. clap.gif

    You'll look back at this winter and say that STORMBOY remained so positive through the 90+ days of snow cover and frozen surfaces.

    STORMBOY

    Now 0c and 999.1mb with same -0.7c dewpoint. Don't forget this nowcasting is the key and well was it another 18 hours of precip yet, here?

    South Central England Cold Spell Discussion:

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    i put these pictures together of our snow last week.......

    http://uk.video.yaho...760450/17568357

    Nice one, good for you. There will be many memories for folk down south from this winter 2009/10. Me myself, now having had 15 days of snow cover I beieve and expecting many days yet!

    STORMBOY

    Wa-hey! Here we go! The ppn is now more snow than rain and we have a (very wet) dusting. yahoo.gif

    Please don't let it stop because I want to stay home again tomorrow! drinks.gif

    Not sure about staying off work, well I'm off anyhow, but all these coastal reports of snow are fantastic for the folk slightly further north. Stormforce what's it like there. Some in here might have to measure the top up in the morning methinks, inches of it (you can but hope)

    STORMBOY

    London & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    stiill faitly quiet here...right heres the plan.,..gonna wait til the 1030 radar or when your spud is done, and see what is happen in bogna and then after that I must call it a night....ohh hang on wind up again ....

    Is the wind up rofl.gif prior to the spud or after the spud. Should have beans with that.

    Is it or is it not a good winter this one and still only 12th January, I ain't forget this one in a mcflurry.

    Right, weather report. AT 0.1c keeps falling, DP -0.8c better still for snow, Barometer steady at 999.2mb so the snow will still be here on Saturday for the Polar one methinks.

    STORMBOY

    1065MB! That's got to be the largest high pressure I've seen over Scandinavia.

    I gotta go look at this. OMG!

    STORMBOY

    South Central England Cold Spell Discussion:

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    It's started again.

    Light snow now falling and settling, I expect many hours to come but how heavily it comes down, who knows. Of course, i'm talking specifically for my area (Newbury) so I wonder what I will measure by morning (8 continous days of snow cover at 9am by then)

    Keep your eyes on your temps, dp's and air pressure, there may well be a surprise for a few good folk in here yet according to the radar and latest online bits n pieces.

    I still hear no singing fat lady yet but she's knocking on the door.

    AT 0.3c, DP -0.7c and AP 999.2mb falling slowly, ideal for buckets of the stuff

    STORMBOY

    South Central England Cold Spell Discussion:

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    might just be me but on the last 2 radar runs (raintoday 30:00) it seems as though its starting to pivet !!

    could be wrong though

    Yes, the deep intense COLD is sending the wimpy WET n miserably MILD airmass back to whence it came, the 2010 ice age winter NEVER really left.

    Of course, a totally this is a totally inappropriate post as the models suggest otherwise (no before you ask I'm not digging any particular folk on NW as it's all lighthearted) and I've also been on the drink, hic hic drinks.gif

    Currently the NW radar shows it stalling and going nowhere as suggested, my Air Pressure is 1000mb falling slowly, AT 0.3c and DP -0.6c so everythings setup for SNOW but well.... whatever happens will happen.

    Good ole mother Nature,

    STORMBOY

    South Central England Cold Spell Discussion:

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Yeah, that last update on raintoday really shows it well - and I thought it was going to fizzle out! If we could just have a 2 deg drop in the temp we could be in a for a good dump... unsure.gif

    Oh god, I think the front is currently stalling south of the M4 corridor upon checking the NW radar returns. whistling.gif Personally I think the southwest and west are already going top get loads more, lucky/unlucky blighters.

    Cheers

    STORMBOY

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Stormboy I think its excellent you have picked up on that and entirely relevant to this discussion as in the end it is showing on the model and thus is model output.

    The reason is...and I may be off the mark a bit here. The jet is so far south it cannot really guide the development of the lows. The blocks are so strong also due to temperature that the mild and less dense air (hence lower pressure) cannot make inroads. The clockwise circulation of the high is also helping to steer this low both North and then West. usually with the jet over of near the Uk...the associated area of divergence aloft would help to steer the low in the usual N/NW direction.

    I think that is the main reason...but more experienced will elaborate...is there any vorticity related reasons due to the cockwise spin off the high hitting the low and intensifying the cyclone and westwards component?????

    Thanks very much John, clearly put to someone who needs it in plain english.

    Of course, this is clearly a reason why many folk would never post in here, fear of coming across as stupid, whether its relevant and of course, possibly potentially an embarassing episode.

    Thanks for saving my blushes.

    I do truly believe with all the media coverage, continuous snow cover over many parts of the u.k. currently, the u.k. has introduced many many newbies onto the art of weather discussion and all its theories etc.

    Again, many Thanks.

    STORMBOY

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Hello all,

    I don't really know which section I should post my query in so I've plumped fo this one.

    Anyway, concerning the more immediate period say, next 24-36 hours isn't it somewhat unusual for a low pressure system (the one heading towards Ireland as we speak) taking the route indicated by the following link http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/surface_pressure.html truly bizzare cc_confused.gif Can someone, confirm how often such a thing could happen and why is taking that route back to Greenland and maybe even back to the US. My personal take on it is that block is currently too strong?

    Confused and intrigued

    STORMBOY

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    If you are refering to the low that develops in the Channel tomorrow night, the fax charts below track the shallow low up the east into Thursday, the frontal snow moving N with it:

    http://cache.netweat.../fax/PPVI89.png

    http://cache.netweat.../fax/PPVJ89.png

    http://cache.netweat.../fax/PPVK89.png

    Well GFS not keen at all on following the 12z ECM and doesn't develop the -NAO with the retrogressing high and undercut of lows, instead it looks rather mild in outlook in FI. Will ECM in the morning stay with or back away from its idea of developing an easterly next week? All will be revealed in around 8 hours time!

    Cheers Nick, just what I was after. It certainly appears it can't happen as I hoping as for one thing it's not forecast to be deep enough anyhow.

    Many Thanks

    STORMBOY

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    GFS, NAE and UKMO/UKMet Fax output this evening take the low NE across the SE corner then swing it north up the east coast ... following the 500mb flow like all surface lows. Don't think there is too much uncertainty where it'll go now ...

    Hi Nick,

    In my stupidity I believe I am actually about 1000 miles out with my interpretation of the track of the low according to the MO sequence I've seen, so still learning here.

    Can you post a couple of charts for us please.

    Cheers

    STORMBOY

    South Central England Cold Spell Discussion:

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by STORMBOY

    Hi Stormboy,

    Sorry to be a pain but are you able to explain that in a little more detail please so I can keep my other half 'in the picture' so to speak re arrangements for work.

    Any help gratefully received but don't worry if not. Thanks biggrin.gif

    Ummm. No, in one word, I just lurk and try to pick up on what they say, what I think may happen, study charts, follow my Davis Weather Station's live data, listen to fellow weather nut friends/relatives opinions and THEN mix it all together with my own gut feeling. What is a shortwave, a secondary?

    Also, I think I have made a big 'mistake' by suggesting a low diving south-eastwards as the MO chart show the deep low heading northwards along the western periphery and heading to iceland so I can make out. oops.gif As I mentioned in the big boys room, the MO Discussion thread.

    Cheers

    STORMBOY

    South Central England Cold Spell Discussion:

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Thanks Flyer,

    I've heard bits and bobs about a possible 'shortwave' but it went over my head unfortunately! I'm still not convinced about anything reaching us (mainly due to what I've read on south west thread and trying to make sense of the charts I see on there etc) but time will tell. My partner manages a couple of Meals on Wheels central southern regions so he started to panic after watching South Today; I've told him to chill out a little! smile.gif

    SLB,

    Do you still have lying snow in Portsmouth or has it long since gone mellow.gif

    Regards

    STORMBOY

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The 18z has the main part of the precipitation not even reaching most of the Midlands tommorow, looks like it will slide across into the South East as usual...

    Indeed, although I haven't looked at the said model what if...... the low pressure went steaming along the channel or even dived south-eastwards into France, just like some of often talked winter synoptics of the past.

    Why do I mention the above, well having read Robert Stirling's book of British Weather, many episodes of a similar breakdown event have down just that in the past. The models aren't getting a grip so the next 24-36 hours at the ones to watch short term, methinks

    Pure guesswork on my behalf, what do the top guys think, GP, TEITS, JH, anyone?

    I reckon we should have a Tracking the Low thread for tomorrow.

    Whatever, the past few weeks have been interesting and unusual, the future looks interesting too.

    STORMBOY

    South Central England Cold Spell Discussion:

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Evening Lamp Watchers

    As folk are a tad subdued thought I might spice things up a little so have copy and pasted a post from GP (GOD in weather circles) You will find it under General Model Output Discussion 13.38 approx

    All together now ALWAYS LOOK ON THE BRIGHT SIDE OF LIFE ...............dedum dedum

    Indeed Paul, the 06z NAE and NNM have trended towards a solution where the low approaching from the SW develops a short wave which cuts SE and becomes quite slow moving acoss the Channel. There is potential for sustained moderate intensity precipitation over 12-15 hours from SW england, much of Wales and central southern England (NMM slightly further north). The circulation developing around the low has 850 and 1000 hP winds from the South-east and east, becoming northerly as it pulls away eastwards. This drags down some of the colder air to the north and 850 values are no higher than -2 C with dew points below freezing throughout. That looks like a substantial fall of snow for large parts of the SW.

    A transitory ridge topples in on Thursday which should enable the snow to persist for another 24 hours before the next trough drops in from the Atlantic bringing snow on the leading edge before turning to rain.

    The ECM is less convincing about the short wave sending it quickly SE and much less precipitation whilst the GEM has everything a lot further south which would take the snow threat further south.

    Longer term, both GEM and GFS ensemble mean guidance suggests a significant block to develop over Northern Scandinavia days 11-15 resulting in something of a standoff situation with the UK stuck in a transition between mild air to the west and colder air to the east.

    Indeed, that's where my money would go.

    I believe my snow aint gonna totally until nearer the weekend at least, then who knows, I favour a scandi high. Anyway I'm not downbeat considering I currently have had 14 days and counting days of snow lying since the atlantic rollercoaster got shut down in mid december, certainly not bad for lowland central southern england.

    It aint over til the fat lady sings.

    Cheers

    STORMBOY

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