gottolovethisweather
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Posts posted by gottolovethisweather
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Hello,
Posting again in order to stop the confusion.
While many folk on here, especially lurkers (normally including myself) are contemplating the pub run of the GFS and what it has to offer up to 16 days out, I suggest they/you take on board some of the last few comments on the cold discussion , which I feel are very appropriate indeed.
Whoops I meant the MODEL MOODS THREAD, apologies
IMO it still applies though to our model output obsession.I'm very much liking the GFS out to T+72, oh yes.
STORMBOY
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Hey Stormboy,
I've been over to the Model Thread and it looks like it's going to be dry, cold/very cold with frosts and any snow confined mostly to east coasts/far south east. I can't beat your record wrt snow but we had a great time in early January here in Portsmouth and the surrounding areas with a lot more snow than a lot of people have seen for many a year! I also had the added bonus of spending New Year in the Peak District and saw loads of snow then as well so I've been lucky.
Wow, you have been blessed with the white stuff and anyway for Portsmouth, snow sure has to be a rarity so any days with snow cover is something. Mind you, most years in Newbury I have to head up to the local downs to see the best of the snow too.
To be honest I don't expect to see much in the way of anymore snow for this region apart from the occasional flurry so I won't be disappointed if any lampost watching doesn't bear fruit! Anyway, here's hoping for lots of great thunderstorms later this year, they're my favourite!
Wow, you have been blessed with the white stuff and anyway for Portsmouth, snow sure has to be a rarity so any days with snow cover is something. Mind you, most years in Newbury I have to head up to the local downs to see the best of the snow too.
Storms, particularly continental type with vivid lightning is definitely my favourite too, so I am indeed a true stormboy
All the best for the days a coming SLB and other lurkers out there.
STORMBOY
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I assume no one can get on as I tried to get in and it didn't work. At least you're not missing much!
Honorary membership of the Scottish one till the problem is fixed?
Anyway, to the models, and perhaps we are missing the easterly coming into NMM territory and with it snow potential for east and northern areas.
LS
LS,
I love those charts, are they free on Netweather or are they subscription only? They certainly show some detail on them.
Back to the models, the forum overload is kicking in so I reckon the cold spell is getting into the system already. The GFS runs had potential yesterday evening all the way through into FI on the 21st, Jay Wynne hinted on the BBC that something snowy could be on the way for Wednesday, I wonder?
Now I better catch up on the latest.
STORMBOY
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Hello all south central southerners.
This winter has sure been odd, the best in my 30+ years that this boy can remember, as whatever happens in the final 3 weeks ahead it will be remembered well by myself. (my english grammar sounds like its given up!)
Anyway, my data thus far in Newbury suggests that the 9th December was the last date to achieved 10c in terms of temperature. 17 days whereby I have seen falling from the sky since 1st December. 18 days with more than 50% snow cover on the ground since 1st December. Can anyone beat that in our region? any takers.
I don't like bragging but I think it's worth bearing these facts out as after the forthcoming spell, the clock will be ticking. Now i'll pop over to the MO discussion to see what the guys n gals think is going to happen with part 3 of the cold winter outbreak of 2009/2010. Snow or no snow I don't mind as long as I keep the raging zonality away from the doorstep for now
Chilly Cheers
STORMBOY
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The NAE is a high resolution short range model for the UK run by the Met Office (I believe). You can see it here:
Thankyou Barb and Mr AltoStratus
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In normal circumstances I’d be pretty confident up to T+120 but as we all know, these are abnormal circumstances. For the reliable time frame, the GFS serves as useful guide, however the MOGREPS NAE is meant to be better for short range forecasts.
Yes indeed I'm loving this very special winter, IMBY last 10c+ max was back on the 9th December, amazing for modern winters!
Anyways, what's 'MOGREPS NAE' and is it free to view on NW.
Cheers
STORMBOY
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I would like to ask why is it so implausible to see a run like the operational GFS 18z verify.
Everything is there for it to occur ie high coming out of Siberia dragging all that frigid air
with it, the size depth and intensity of the high, all the cold pooling over Europe that will
sustain the bitter air from Siberia, also widespread frost, ice and snow over Europe to
sustain the frigid air.
All that is needed is the right orientation of the high and the rest is history, so to say
definitely will not happen is misplaced I think.
One thing I do remember from past freezes that got to the levels of cold shown tonight
is how ineffective the rock salt is at these bitter temperatures.
Feb 91 for example it was only when daytime temperatures recovered to about -1c that
the salt started to melt the snow where it had been previously laid.
Spot on I reckon. The salting of roads could be the least of our problems once again, especially if the over-populated south gets hit again. Some impressive theories in here and only time will tell I suppose. I must admit some folk have an uncanny knack of being bang right on the timing when it comes to our understanding of climate's intracies (?) however. NAO/AO's, QBO's MMW's all go over my head but RESPECT is due to the good folk such as you who are rarely wrong and when you/they are, more importantly, you EXPLAIN why it did not hit the target. Alternatively you could read the Daily Mail, who are never wrong, so I wonder how long before the headline 'SIBERIAN BLAST approaching' appears
Wintry Cheers
STORMBOY
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Hi,
I've crossposted this here as I'm hoping for some expert opinion on this and boy, its gone mad in the MO discussion
Hello,
I know nothing about all the intracies of these runs but similar outcomes to what many folk are posting have appeared on several occasions in the last few days so I suppose it's plausible the big beast could be coming.
I must admit I used the GFS thickness runs, 500/1000's etc. for trend spotting in the last cold spell and they seemed accurate enough and eventually were bang on.
What do GP,TEITS,Nick F etc. think is a sensible timeframe from which to get excited at this rate, T96 maybe? also what's your models/charts of choice to best indicate what to expect at the surface, come the reliable timeframe.
Loving the thrill of the chase of East meets West either way Resized to 28% (was 48 x 27) - Click image to enlarge
Cheers
STORMBOY
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The GFS has just produced one of the best runs in history. It just shows the potential of this event. With those huge blocking highs you'd expect something good to come out of this eventually.
Hello,
I know nothing about all the intracies of these runs but similar outcomes to what many folk are posting have appeared on several occasions in the last few days so I suppose it's plausible the big beast could be coming.
I must admit I used the GFS thickness runs, 500/1000's etc. for trend spotting in the last cold spell and they seemed accurate enough and eventually were bang on.
What do GP,TEITS,Nick F etc. think is a sensible timeframe from which to get excited at this rate, T96 maybe? also what's your models/charts of choice to best indicate what to expect at the surface, come the reliable timeframe.
Loving the thrill of the chase of East meets West either way
Cheers
STORMBOY
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I'm quite enjoying the blue skies we've got here at the moment; hardly a cloud to be seen and judging by the radar that's the way it will stay for a while so I've got my windows open giving the house a good airing!!
Hello slb.
You may have to close those windows, although I think it will miss you there, there's a big lump of cloud to your NE, go have a look! That was what dumped a little on my area earlier. I'm keeping my eyes peeled to my NNW for a hour or so's time and who knows what could happen later on tonight and into the weekend
There's even a polar low being watched closely out in the northern part of the north sea evidently.
STORMBOY
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Crossposted this to the cold discussion.
A heavy shower just skirted us here in Newbury, Berkshire but remarkably is how my temps took a nosedive.
At 14:45 Air Temp was 4.6c and DP 2.1c then at 15:00 they were 3.0c/0.4c respectively. Also it started horizontally snowing at the time of the first observation.
Now just 10 minutes later, the AT is 2.5c and DP 0.3c so continuing to slowly fall and judging by the radar, could a surprise covering be on offer by evening time.
Loving this northerly already.
STORMBOY
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A heavy shower just skirted us here in Newbury, Berkshire but remarkably is how my temps took a nosedive.
At 14:45 Air Temp was 4.6c and DP 2.1c then at 15:00 they were 3.0c/0.4c respectively. Also it started horizontally snowing at the time of the first observation.
Now just 10 minutes later, the AT is 2.5c and DP 0.3c so continuing to slowly fall and judging by the radar, a surprise covering maybe on offer by evening time.
Loving this northerly already.
STORMBOY
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I think that the AH moving north is a critical trigger in helping this block westwards, HD.
Try clicking on the link in my sig and all will be revealed SB.
Many Thanks Chionomaniac.
I think a lot of that will go over my head but I get the gist of it, plus it's well written for folk like me to understand. Mr Chiono, what is your current take on the rest of winter according to the models/ensembles etc.?I'm always keen to learn and understand our climate nuances as I'm sure, are many a lurker in here.
Maybe the next Laura Tobin or Michael Fish is reading these threads as we speak, so keep it together guys.
Cheers
STORMBOY
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However, based on looking at those, personal interpretations about the outlook are made. Just as one example, as chionomaniac documents on the stratosphere thread, no MMW is the same, nor has the same effects in the same places every time.
Hello NSSC and others.
I love the thrill of this chase we are having with these models, will it, won't it etc. and after so much fun for coldies already in the bag we want more.
Anyway, geting to the point of my post is, please can you define MMW as by searching the web all I can find is something to do with "millimetre waves"
Please can you answer in basic plain english terms and i'll see if can learn something. Once again all the top posters are in here so keep it up guys n gals!
In my interpretation and others , also by studying the wonderful NW charts etc. I'm thinking that no WARMTH until at least mid february is on the cards, WOW
take that raging zonality.Wintry Cheers
STORMBOY
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Agreed, very impressive.
STORMBOY
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Also posted to my regional to my regional thread so apologise mods.
Well I wasn't expecting to measure 15mm level snow at 9am this morning when I was observing the weather station b4 going to bed last night.
The temperature last evening had risen to 4.1c from a previous low of 3.2c just a couple of hours earlier and the Dewpoint having risen similarly. Now I'm watching snow merrily falling only 9 or so hours later. Perfect conditions now for wet snow, 0.5c AT and 0.1c DP so the temperature has really plummeted since dawn.
Well done MO and BBC as whould not have been a easy situation to 2nd guess.
Snowy Cheers yet again.
STORMBOY
Do the more knowledgeable believe I witnessed the warm front passing last night as I cannot understand what was happening at the time.
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Hello all snowlovers.
Well I wasn't expecting to measure 15mm level snow at 9am this morning when I was observing the weather station b4 going to bed last night.
The temperature last evening had risen to 4.1c from a previous low of 3.2c just a couple of hours earlier and the Dewpoint having risen similarly. Now I'm watching snow merrily falling only 9 or so hours later. Perfect conditions now for wet snow, 0.5c AT and 0.1c DP so the temperature has really plummeted since dawn.
Well done MO and BBC as whould not have been a easy situation to 2nd guess.
Snowy Cheers yet again.
STORMBOY
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Bill and his Farkin Grebes. Remember it well from BBC Snow(slow) watch. Apparently it's evolved into a Seagull story now. Wonder what the next bird species with astute weather forecasting skills will be??
Not sure, but I would guess every migratory species/all seabirds etc. as of course they spend most of their living life feeding/flying in earth's atmosphere
Still loving the models, the battles seem to be going on and on, tooing and froing just like the arguing labourites and tories.
Always learning from you guys/gals in here.
Cheers
STORMBOY
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Also posted to my regional discussion, however I would like people's thoughts on this upcoming event?
Hello all.
IMHO, I thought the trend (last few hours) for a snow event from tomorrow's event was looking promising according to my weather station data, however what is happening now?
Air Temp had dropped to 3.2c from day max of 6.8c with equivalent DewPoint dropping down to 2.5c at the same time (8pm). So as in the MO discussion, it's all about trends and here I was, many hours from the event, happily awaiting some good action. However, as I type (9.30pm) AT is now 3.7c and DP a measly 3.1c so I feel the high ground is all that's gonna get it in nearly all of our region. The cold air needs to undercut pretty quickly now otherwise many snow wishers are going to be out of luck. the good thing is that the Air pressure does seem to be bombing somewhat so who knows, could this help the intensity somewhat
Roll on the weekend and see what develops then maybe.
What's the top guy's/gal's opinion on the coming snow or rain event, ok maybe it's a nowcast event or am I on to something?
STORMBOY
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Hello all.
IMHO, I thought the trend (last few hours) for a snow event from tomorrow's event was looking promising according to my weather station data, however what is happening now?
Air Temp had dropped to 3.2c from day max of 6.8c with equivalent DewPoint dropping down to 2.5c at the same time (8pm). So as in the MO discussion, it's all about trends and here I was, many hours from the event, happily awaiting some good action. However, as I type (9.30pm) AT is now 3.7c and DP a measly 3.1c so I feel the high ground is all that's gonna get it in nearly all of our region. The cold air needs to undercut pretty quickly now otherwise many snow wishers are going to be out of luck. the good thing is that the Air pressure does seem to be bombing somewhat so who knows, could this help the intensity somewhat
Roll on the weekend and see what develops then maybe.
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My obsession with E,lys started during the winter of 78/79 as the blizzards left a lasting impression as I was only 8yrs old. During my childhood days my Grandad would often tell me stories about 1947 and how the Siberian winds always brings heavy snow to this part of the world. Now my Grandparents used to say to me that during the winter if you see a mass of Seagulls this is a sign of the weather coming from Siberia. Apparently this is a well known saying in E Anglia.
Recently my mother informed me of a huge number of Seagulls in this area which I have also witnessed first hand. Now the combination of the model output showing a battle and the Seagulls is what makes me believe the E,ly is on its way. This has proved very accurate in the past especially prior to 1987 & 1991. However this time I have never seen so many in Peterborough!
What a chart this is!
Indeed, a lovely chart in what may well be a sign of things, so I was not so far out in my Bittern invasion theory either then. I wonder if the models should and subsequently the forecasters incorporate mass migration movements be it the wildebeest, painted lady butterflies, 260+ % increase in numbers of fieldfares n redwings etc. Nature has to react to conditions in their backyard and move ahead, also ultimately if the atmospehric conditions follow them it will eventually help them back to whence they came.
Now back to the models as I fear this will be binned, I must admit GFS 850's seqeunce did not look favourable for coldies when I looked earlier this pm. So gut feeling suggest the east may still see the beast for a few days and then raging zonality enevitable maybe a few days on down the line.
Off to measure the last of my snow cover.
Good discussions guys n gals.
STORMBOY
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If the jet doesn't play ball then it doesn't matter whether the Russian High is 1045, 1070 or whatever mb.
Maybe then I could be right in my post yesterday, when I mentioned the following concerning TEITS's 'thing up his sleeve' which I believe he still hasn't revealed.
I think your sign is the split jet being hinted at the charts come Sunday allowing a subesequent easterly to build
Whatever, respect is due to the many experts on here that attempt to unravel nature's most outstanding aspect, the weather.
I have no expertise/knowledge technically or scientifically but I love the discussions, time out as the latest model output is forthcoming.
STORMBOY
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Im not actually surprised by the ECM tonight. I would be amazed if the models suggested an E,ly at +168 which works its way down to +0. This has never happened since I started following the models and never will do.
This synoptic pattern that we're currently seeing has often been a forecasting nightmare and this was the case back in the 1980's/90s. One of the biggest headaches is just a relatively small shift in the W extent of the Siberian HP can mean the difference between bitter cold and snow showers or mild S,lys.
Thankfully though I have my sign that is suggesting the bitterly cold E,lys are on their way.
Agreed, is it true that models use the interpreation of the 'here and now' to indicate and generate forecasts down the line, if I'm right with that in mind all models will be better equipped to deal with winter blasts from the east in future. Especially as we have had 2 winters in a row differing much from the recent modern winters.
I think your sign is the split jet being hinted at the charts come Sunday allowing a subesequent easterly to build or maybe it's the fact I have had 26 different bird species in my suburban garden in Newbury. Of course then there are unusual number of bitterns about the country.
Ok, back to the models, put us out of our misery TEITS.
Sorry about the slightly OT post earlier GMG
STORMBOY
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Nice one Stormboy I know where you are and that explains why you keep getting more than me
The elevation certainly helps plus you are closer to the downs, which means you get more precipitation than me!As for the re-load the % chances have certainly gone up since yesterday. The form horse this winter has been the cold up until now.. and to think that most winters we drool over charts like the ones we are seeing only for the actual outcome is mild where Greece gets all the snow... hmmm
Indeed.
It's only the 13th January and so far to go with this winter whatever the rest of it does. Ain't it strange to pull the curtains back every morning of every day to see the thick snow laying on the ground.
makes me want to get the Rochester Ginger out and maybe a brandy after getting home from work of course, when you can get there that is, anyhows today's a day off so I better get reading up again. I'm posting so much now, I thought i'd never come out of the closet STORMBOY
IMO it still applies though to our model output obsession.
take that raging zonality.
The elevation certainly helps plus you are closer to the downs, which means you get more precipitation than me!
makes me want to get the Rochester Ginger out and maybe a brandy after getting home from work of course, when you can get there that is, anyhows today's a day off so I better get reading up again. I'm posting so much now, I thought i'd never come out of the closet 
Model Output Discussion
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Oh well.
Hello,
Posting again in order to stop the confusion.
While many folk on here, especially lurkers (normally including myself) are contemplating the pub run of the GFS and what it has to offer up to 16 days out, I suggest they/you take on board some of the last few comments on the cold discussion , which I feel are very appropriate indeed.
Whoops I meant the MODEL MOODS THREAD, apologies
IMO it still applies though to our model output obsession.
I'm very much liking the GFS out to T+72, oh yes.
STORMBOY