gottolovethisweather
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Posts posted by gottolovethisweather
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Hi Stormboy,
Why don't you copy to model discussion thread and see what they have to say? I'm not much help unfortunately but I haven't heard about anything our way except the possibility of some light snow on Wednesday - BBC graphics show grey cloud until Friday then fog so their guess is as good as mine!!
Done, now I better duck.
What the hell, we're all learning from the severe winter of 2010 and especially so are the models.
Keep your eyes to the skies.
STORMBOY
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Hello,
This is one for the experts but sorry Mods, not specifically a Model Discussion. Anyhows.
I've posted this on the CSE cold discusiion and would like the experts views on this.
Hello,
I heard on one of the threads earlier today that maybe we should be looking east and not to the southwest for the next bit of action, in fact way before late Tues/Wed. If you roll the animation sequence on the following, http://www.yr.no/satellitt/1.5941760 you can see the atlantic is not many inroads at all at the moment and the flow is stronger to our east where the bitter air remains. I will be looking due east in the next couple of days, for sure. Also keep an eye on the Dewpoints and the barometric trend as that should tell its own story.
Still plenty of fun yet!
Maybe this should be copied to the MO discussion thread too, mind you I'm no expert just my gut feeling.
Wintry Cheers
STORMBOY
Any thoughts
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Blimey - heard a rumour on another thread that the snowstorm currently in Germany called Daisy might reach the uk by next weekend......bit like reading the horoscopes isn't it?
Hello,
I heard on one of the threads earlier today that maybe we should be looking east and not to the southwest for the next bit of action, in fact way before late Tues/Wed. If you roll the animation sequence on the following, http://www.yr.no/satellitt/1.5941760 you can see the atlantic is not many inroads at all at the moment and the flow is stronger to our east where the bitter air remains. I will be looking due east in the next couple of days, for sure. Also keep an eye on the Dewpoints and the barometric trend as that should tell its own story.
Still plenty of fun yet!
Maybe this should be copied to the MO discussion thread too, mind you I'm no expert just my gut feeling.
Wintry Cheers
STORMBOY
Blimey - heard a rumour on another thread that the snowstorm currently in Germany called Daisy might reach the uk by next weekend......bit like reading the horoscopes isn't it?
Hello,
I heard on one of the threads earlier today that maybe we should be looking east and not to the southwest for the next bit of action, in fact way before late Tues/Wed. If you roll the animation sequence on the following, http://www.yr.no/satellitt/1.5941760 you can see the atlantic is not many inroads at all at the moment and the flow is stronger to our east where the bitter air remains. I will be looking due east in the next couple of days, for sure.
Also keep an eye on the Dewpoints and the barometric trend as that should tell its own story. Still plenty of fun yet!
Maybe this should be copied to the MO discussion thread too, mind you I'm no expert just my gut feeling.
Wintry Cheers
STORMBOY
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Sorry to post again I hope peeps down miss the gist of this as people in the MO discussion in particular seem to forget about the past and present, wow what a situation we are in, snow covered britain
I'm amazed anyone (cold lovers in particular) ca be downbeat over what's happened and what will be happening in the days/weeks to come. For example, if you live in Scotland, the response to normal winter is same ole snow, same ole snow problems down in the South. As for down on the south coast/Isle of Wight/Jersey etc. its normally put the snowflakes in the fridge and this cannot last. If you have already had snow on the coast as I think everyone has celebrate it, blog it, picture it, document it for the future.
Truthfully, when do you think this is likely to happen again, believe me the raging zonality
is waiting to bash us southern softies out of the way but be sure he has a battle on his hands. Location, location, location is everything but when the south coast gets snow, wishing for more seems like a fantasy but even the odds have swung towards our patch once again for a change.
Truly stunning weather.
STORMBOY
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I'm amazed anyone (cold lovers in particular) ca be downbeat over what's happened and what will be happening in the days/weeks to come. For example, if you live in Scotland, the response to normal winter is same ole snow, same ole snow problems down in the South. As for down on the south coast/Isle of Wight/Jersey etc. its normally put the snowflakes in the fridge and this cannot last. If you have already had snow on the coast as I think everyone has celebrate it, blog it, picture it, document it for the future.
Truthfully, when do you think this is likely to happen again, believe me the raging zonality
is waiting to bash us southern softies out of the way but be sure he has a battle on his hands. Location, location, location is everything but when the south coast gets snow, wishing for more seems like a fantasy but even the odds have swung towards our patch once again for a change.
Truly stunning weather.
STORMBOY
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Thanks Flyer - after a few glasses of wine I'm having trouble getting my head round it all! Seen so many conflicting reports everywhere it's hard to know what's going to happen. I think we may get some very light snow tomorrow morning and perhaps some flurries mid week although being so close to the coast, it could be rain instead. Apologies if there are any typos, I blame it firmly on my chardonnay!!
Stormboy - you have me intrigued (unless I've had too much chardonnay and imagined reading your post lol!!!)
I must admit one or two have been had here too
but I do not jest as in parts and I suspect potentially not our region will be impending chaos as next weekj progresses. Wasn't there a mammoth uncovered in your neck of the woods in recent years -
Hi,
Dead as the proverbial dodo in Horndean at the moment (apart from the wind and a strange noise from my living room which I'm not keen to investigate as it sounds like a man laughing but I'm the only one in!!!!)
Ha ha slb
The strange noise will be the New Ice Age monster (in some circles, known as David Cameron) laughing at your reference to the death of the Dodo. Albeit he is starting to regret constant bickering with Gordon Brown as he has now seen the +96 ECM model and finally agrees he should unite with Gordon Brown and get the country out of reccession, mmmm.
I've just seen a mammoth outside.
Seriously though, the SNOW and ICE is about to hit the fan with MANY parts receiving inches and inches of fresh snow. The guys n gals who know will soon be telling us how its gonna be and of course you could if you like, forget NW and just watch the SKY and BBC news. Am I dramatising, I wonder? Tell me this time next week.
Sorry all, remove post if too political.
Take Care, still seems strange to be ramping more havoc to come but there you go, it'll be reality very soon.
STORMBOY
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Fasinating watching this battle between the block and the Atlantic with F.I most certainly +72. In my experience of these synoptics the first push from the Atlantic usually results in a stalled front across Wales, W Midlands. What happens with the next push dictates whether it turns milder or remains cold. I would put the odds at 50/50 at the moment.
Thanks TEITS, keep us informed with your odds, I'll go 60/40 in favour with the cold staying, albeit less cold at first. The way I read the latest GFS DP charts is that a slight warming is due around Tuesday and then we're guessing., imho gets colder from the northeast/east again.
Am I right that less cold air over snowcover can't bring us rapid melting unless the atlantic kicks in furiously, can it? and the influence is from the warmer seas.
Whatever, gotta love this weather pattern so far.
Take Care
STORMBOY
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Hello,
To me this is already a classic textbook winter, especially for the north, someone said 4 weeks of lying snow, how quickly would 2 feet or more of lying snow melt even if rained on with a therorhetical AT of say 5c. My point, is that the snow cover surely cools the air above and we would need something 546 dam air over us to then claim the breakdown is here and over within 24-48 hrs.
What matters to me is that the only to look for a change is raging zonality and I just dont see that happening for many days/weeks.
Science is not my strong point but experience and watching day to day petterns is how we learn, when and why they go wrong is an issue for the real experts. Unfortunately I agree with Nick Sussex's view past this weekend and people south of the M4 brace yourselves for something special once again.
We all love the weather and 2010 is a special one and the floods, storms and heatwave i think are all in the mix this year, just gut feeling and having divulged some texts on the great winters of past.
Stay safe people, whatever we wish for we can only stand with our backs to it, the weather will do whatever it likes.
STORMBOY
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I am right in thinking most of the northern hemisphere is under snow at the moment, like you say the usa have been battered, uk and europe have snow cover and have been battered and china has also been beltered with snow this winter, is there a pattern happening here are the so called world powers keeping something hush hush lol.
indeed the SatPics show it well on TV
OK I'VE BEEN WATCHING TO MANY FILMS but you've got to admit it a pretty good start to winter
Yes but remember we all watch TV and take what we want from it, human nature and I kinda think the media create the panic and brainwash us.
Life is one big movie in a way and movies are supposed to be about life so maybe Al Gore is right and the Day after Tomorrow will happen one day. Also, theres 2 much emphasis on today and now, it's whats down the line is interesting and possibly bad news. Nature i.e the animals/birds/plants have had it bad for sure, these will be the headline makers soon.
Yes winter has been real good from my personal view too but there are many weeks to go yet, this weekend is certainly another hurdle for us folk.
I've already joined you
for the recordCheers
STORMBOY
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I'm no expert (far from it!) but snow cover is the key here for any potential breakdown, surely?
Cold/bitterly cold to our east, cold to our south, obviously colder still to our north and of course naturally we look to our west. However, the USA is buried in snow too, greenland/iceland etc. even parts of north africa have potential 4 snow this weekend. How can anyone be sure of what the next step is, the models barely get a grip on this so gut feeling is used.
My gut feeling is for the breakdown of services/society/normal 90's/00's life before the breakdown of this spell. Cold until Feb at least or even March what about that?
Sorry, just trying to be realistic and am hopefully not dramatising here
Snowy Cheers
STORMBOY
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So we have the breakdown. Touche those that were dismissed a couple of days ago.
Has the fat lady sung, as the song says it aint over til its over, furthermore the breakdown is way out in FI and maybe there will be 2 feet of snow 2 shift first.
I think I take a look at the GFS 850's first though b4 my foot is put in my mouth.
Gut feeling impression only here.
STORMBOY
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Hello all.
My 6pm reading was approximately 140mm, so 5 2/3 inches in old change. Although nudging 160mm in places, it certainly was a memorable event having only ended in the last hour or so. The total snow event lasting 26 hours, wow!
Accoring to some reports, the next action it seems could be as soon as Friday or even tomorrow for the south-east.
Now gonna watch the temperatures plummet, -1.3c as I type, my Davis VP2 record (only had it a year and a bit) being -8.3c should be at risk.
Take it steady guys n gals
Cheers
STORMBOY
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Hello people.
My measurements as of the official recording time for professional stations i.e. 9am.
My amateur observations were 135mm (approx 5 1/2 inches in old money) laying snow and technically bloody cold.
It still snows and snows.
Take Care
PS! Where should I look online for official reports from official stations I wonder?
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Post your reports and weather chat here please.
Hello.
I'll be the first then!
Ok, I've had a couple of alco-beverages so is there nothing to report in the south for example? just watch the news if not sure.
As of 00:55BST I would say 3 inches settled snow here in Newbury and many more dumpings to come.
This is potentially a SERIOUS spell of cold and snowy weather for the u.k in particular the south/south-eastern part where we are terribly over-populated.
Well done the NW forecasters who predicted this desperately cold JANUARY way back in early December, I forget who you are, GMG, TEITS etc.
Anyway I try best not to hype and as it stands my Davis shows a mean Temp of 5.5c below the average in the first 5 days of January and no let up for 2 weeks maybe or more.
Snow Joke
STORMBOY
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Hello all.
I do think I should be tucking myself into my warm bed by now, but I reckon the folk on SKY and the BBC N24 are taking note of our ramblings on these forums and no doubt others, so keep the posts coming all the way through this event please.
Readings as of 0:25GMT courtesy of my Davis VP2
Air Temp 0.1c DP -0.3c not moved much for 10-11 hours now so looking good for seriopus dumping in my area, interestingly MSL AP 997.5mb which is deeper than forecast.
Take Care all and keep all the posts coming
STORMBOY
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Can you go out with your ruler please?
I'm in my jim jams with wet hair!Nice, what an image.
omg, don't go out and get a newspaper in the morning or switch the news on, comparisons with 1947 and rationing within the next few weeks are possible i.e. as in 1947 etc.
Mind you as I suggested in another thread a few weeks back, remember the natural global cycles 1962/63, 1981/82, 1990/91 & oh dear 2009/10. and of course much better forecasters/intelligent folk than me did mention JANUARY was the month to watch.
Look after yourselves and those that need it, even the wildlife.
Snow Joke
STORMBOY
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can you tell I want work from home tomorrow ? lol
PompeyFC, you tell them you are working from home!
I believe as do the experts on here, would say this could certainly get serious in places by this time tomorrow. 2 more belts of snow yet to arrive in next 24 hours for parts of the south. I want to see those rulers out everyone, 2 foot anyone?
STORMBOY
heaving down now here in Newbury.
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At the back of B & Q off the A4..
No not going anywhere as the canal has been frozen solid for days!!
I see, not far from the 'Narrowboat' and where my mate works at the Business Park.
Still snowing well, I estimate 6 inches or more by the morning surely.
You got to love this cold spell, last time I remember anything like this and what we can expect in next 10 days or maybe more was the early 90's when 4-5 foot icicles hung down from my roof whan the thaw finally set in.
Take care all but i'm going nowhere, loving all the updates.
STORMBOY
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yes it seems its turning sleety omg i hope not id be gutted by morning my kids with be very upset:unsure:
still i have some pics.
sorry about the pics stupid camera.
Great, I couldn't figure it out but it looked like 4 inches or so, is that right?
I reckon we now have 2 inches here outside
STORMBOY
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I was out taking pictures in Ham Basin Marina ( live on a Narrowboat)
and it seemed to be sleet rather than snow...
guess I got all pessimistic and disappointed!!
Ha ha, many hours and days of fun yet.
Where's this Ham Basin Marina then? Nice to live on a narrowboat but I fear you may not be going far for a while.
Snowy Cheers
STORMBOY
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:good:im happy so bloody happy this is like nothing ive seen before 7 inches is the most ive seen back in the day
badboy, get out there with your ruler.
Come on folks, let's have some figures. I think I'll stay where I am and have another shot of brandy.
Lamppost watcher STORMBOY
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Hello, as per some quotes in the cold discussion thread (keep going Netweather)
Got about 2.5 cms here in Newbury but its stopped
and seems to be melting.... so might be very slushy here soon Hello fellow Newburyite, love the name btw.
I measured 5mm earlier at 6pm and it has been steadily falling ever since, as for melting I certainly wouldn't think it would?
Currently AirTemp 0.2c and Dp -0.2c albeit close to sleetliness at those figures.
Much more fun to come though.
Cheers
STORMBOY
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Got about 2.5 cms here in Newbury but its stopped
and seems to be melting.... so might be very slushy here soon Hello fellow Newburyite, love the name btw.
I measured 5mm earlier at 6pm and it has been steadily falling ever since, as for melting I certainly wouldn't think it would?
Currently AirTemp 0.2c and Dp -0.2c albeit close to sleetliness at those figures.
Much more fun to come though.
Cheers
STORMBOY
is waiting to bash us southern softies out of the way but be sure he has a battle on his hands. 
I'm in my jim jams with wet hair!
and seems to be melting.... so might be very slushy here soon 
General Model Output Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Posted Yesterday, 10:08 by TEITS
Fasinating watching this battle between the block and the Atlantic with F.I most certainly +72. In my experience of these synoptics the first push from the Atlantic usually results in a stalled front across Wales, W Midlands. What happens with the next push dictates whether it turns milder or remains cold. I would put the odds at 50/50 at the moment.
TEITS, if you're about. What are your latest odds having seen all the latest models.
Interestingly the flow is still very much from our EAST at current time and it will be more interesting within 24 hours of supposed breakdown.
Wintry Cheeers
STORMBOY