gottolovethisweather

24 hours on and nearly down to nowcasting times, in another 36 or so hours, a number of us even in inland parts, could get a dusting it seems as the local forecasts are now mentioning the word, SNOW. Regions as stated above, the most at risk but Friday morning could be an interesting commute if all goes to plan. Take care all, as Storm Caroline starts to ramp up as well.

Precisely why I think a fair few will wake up to lying snow come Friday morning as stated earlier, the current Fax charts back this up. Still plenty of time for things to go either way but I'm hopeful, and not necessarily speaking IMBY here, either.

Well, the Fax charts are still proving their worth as we head into the period of greatest wintry (snow) potential. Come dawn on Friday, lying snow could well be affecting much of Scotland (including lowland parts of northern England perhaps?) and also parts of Western England, maybe into central parts too if conditions are ripe for it. Our first lowland snowfalls of the winter season 2017/18 are on their way, according to this D3 Fax Chart. As to my percentage chances of something significantly wintry occurring and lasting, I'll give it a 70:30 percent shot as no mild air is likely to kill off the wintry flavour for a good few days yet. The strongest depth of the cold will be felt from the 8th to 10th December as anticipated, previously. The more the snow settles, the greater our chances are of prolonging the cold spell IMHO. Timing is key with regards to the settling of any snowfall and the attached chart needs to come off as suggested for a coldies best hopes to happen. Bring on the chill and take care all, a certain Storm Caroline to deal with beforehand. Winter is just about to show its energetic and more seasonal side!

And a couple of active fronts chasing the 528DAM line southwards. As stated in my previous post, I think this might also improve coldies hopes rather than anything else, as it might well produce deeper cold 850s than currently modelled. A lot for the professional forecasters to consider this week. Also, I just saw my local tv forecast, goes from 13c Thursday to a max of 4c on Friday. Who knows where it'll go from there, but Fax charts will give us sound guidance as ever, thanks for sharing.

Certainly, something to be mindful of, but I think it'll help the cold air dig in deeper still behind it, that's what history tells us anyhow. I'm sure others can dig out some charts from the past which were precursors to colder snowier spells which looked similar.

Agreed but I'm not looking that far ahead. A few of the old-timers (my reliable set of forum posters) suggest things are looking very favourable for coldies, overall. As things stand, prior to the ECM 12z rolling out. My 60:40 (bordering on 70:30 right now) percent swing towards something significantly wintry happening by D4 remains, as most of the usual suspects will see SNOW by the end of the week. I will give it another 36 to 48 hours before readjusting that valuation for the rest of lowland England including London itself (and IMBY) as it is just possible their 50-60 percent chances as shown by @Summer Sun's chart will become a much higher percentage chance of SNOW given a few more runs. It certainly looks like a 3-day spell of bitter cold and wintriness is on the table from the 8th through to the 10th December, could we possibly extend that further? The perfect scenario would be for us to get settled snowfall before the HP cell topples over us before a potential reload once again. GAME ON, IT'S SOON TO BE WINTER PROPER!

Get the cold air in place and then worry about your regions' chances might be an old adage but it IS a sound one. Same goes for everyone else wondering over the specifics. Even now, the bigger picture could change but once down to D3 timescales we should get a clearer idea on the surface specifics, so that'll be Tuesday evening's model outputs or thereabouts. During this range, i.e. less than 72 hours right through to almost zero hours, Fax charts and local media forecasts come into their own when trying to second-guess precipitation types (will it snow IMBY?). All I'll say is that my feet on firmly on the ground, we've been here a million times in the past, so I'll be waiting for many further runs yet. Tempted to go 70:30 in favour of a significant wintry event, but will stick with 60:40 chances for now.

Thanks, @s4lancia

What is all this PNA talk about, please? Pacific something I'm guessing. Google doesn't help me much. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PNA Perhaps, we can have it added to the abbreviations, MODS? Seems like I nailed it. For those left wondering, check out the following. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific–North_American_teleconnection_pattern

And "energy" to "post-Brexit", "shortwave" to "tantrum". Getting back to the models, at least the mid-range outlook is certainly still well and truly blocked and far from bolocked, or maybe that's our Brexit talks. D5 remains a thing of beauty and beautifully describes just what I mean.

Well, the breakdown to something nearer average regarding Air Temperatures makes inroads to all of us this weekend. That crept up on me, and the model outputs a bit sooner that might have been predicted at the start of the week, hence why I for one, do not look beyond D5/D6 when talking specifics at the surface. Some have had snow during the past week, nothing particularly long-lasting but a pleasant surprise for late Autumn, for sure. Admittedly, my interest as a coldie wanes over the next few gloomy, occasionally wet days but piques again by December 6th through to the 8th December. This Fax chart hardly screams excitement, does it, in fact, it looks pretty horrific for a coldie located IMBY. However, it is what develops afterwards, D4 and beyond which starts this coldies' heart racing. Check out the 528DAM line and follow that in subsequent updates; also the sinking HP and where it wants to go is also key. For an idea as to how things might get one's coldies' heart racing is indicated below and also by other forum users posts up thread by this timeframe. By D5 (still just about in the accurately forecastable realm), Synoptically things are moving very quickly, indeed. By D6, it is borderline FI but wow! Take said chart and its specifics with a truckload of salt, but it SCREAMS potential. Please don't stress over the details post D6 as they will change and certainly will do so in the run-up. However, I would say there has to be at least a 60:40 percent chance right now in favour of a significant wintry weather event occurring by the 8th December as this has repeatedly been modelled to happen over the past 36 hours or so. Enjoy the model rollercoaster ride over the coming days. Cheers gottolovethisweather

The theme of late Autumn for what seemed like weeks, but in reverse as we hit Meteorological Winter. Yes, please. Instead of cold weekends and mild rainy/showery working weeks, it's mild weekends and cold working weeks with copious amounts of...... wintry stuff, snow, sleet, cold rain for some, frosts, freezing fog and whatever Mother Nature wants to throw at the UK. Still BLOCKED for the foreseeable.

Indeed to my mind, one word sums up the outlook as far the forecastable outlooks can go within the realms of all our model's expertise and forecasting abilities. In general, it's a cold BLOCKED or BLOCKY type pattern, with wintry potential, be it icy mornings or wintry spells, there ain't much mild mush around. BLOCKED I say, not BOLOCKED.

A reasoned post if there ever was one.

Edit: post edited below as I lost original. Hopefully still makes some sort of sense. My one paragraph summary would broadly be as below but holy moley, maxes of 2-3c on Thursday now being quoted by the BBC, snow prospects too with those sort of temperatures, for sure. According to our main model of trust, the ECM, the first half of the operational 12z output is that of "as you were", wintry precipitation for most coastal parts for a time, arctic blasts of air nationwide (pretty much) and a potential wintry event for the SE on Thursday. The second half i.e. post t+144 hints at complicated natural forces at work, could go this way, could go that. In summary, no double-digit maxes bar the extreme West and Southwest likely for the next ten days, a lot of dry weather around, freezing fog where skies clear, some wintriness. The interaction between those Euro Heights located where us coldies don't want them and that pesky energy (haven't got much now after reading ten pages and learning little really) only takes a grip on the projections by D8 or thereabouts. Is this nailed, no? Will it change, yes? Is my glass half full or empty? I am a happy-go-lucky type of guy and this current setup within the reliable is making me happy as the only comparable years, synoptically-speaking were probably 2010 and one or two others in the last twenty years. Bring on the start of winter!

The period through D4 (Thursday) through to D7 (Sunday 3rd December) looking potentially cold enough for some wintry stuff to fall in London right there as well.

Yes, but they do invariably quote city Temperatures which these days are said to be, up to 5 degrees higher than surrounding areas. The peak (if you can use that word) of the current week's interest for inland parts is around about Thursday. See my post here for more on that aspect. But if the 850s are to believed, they could be at snow producing values by then, even away from the hills.

And as if to illustrate the upcoming situation this next working week, from a European/Northern Hemisphere viewpoint. What a way to end November and start the Winter season? Actual Temperatures will likely struggle to reach 2-3c in our bigger cities even down South and a lot of us will likely see an ICE day, should this mean 850 chart come off as shown. Wowzer. I'm not looking post-Friday 1st December but I am hoping the cold pool lingers and the blocking High largely remains in-situ out in the Atlantic and perhaps it could be a case of looking towards the action out E/NE by then.

Best headline summary of the day of the current situation, thanks, @Frosty. My ramble above was basically attempting to hint at the same, this forthcoming week has good/great potential (oh yes, that word again) for coldies. Two points to watch in the reliable out to D6-D10 or so. The longer the colder Northerly flow can be sustained, the better and the longer the troughing can remain in-situ over the continent, the better.

"I still feel good" like James Brown and now that my D6 and beyond range of charts from my post earlier in the week have come to forecastable timescales, the overall consensus is that it remains cold, in fact, borderline cold for snow even in my neck of the woods during the following working week. It's just the sort of scenario one could only dream of in late Autumn, three to four days of Northerly incursions and if not, longer than that. The fly in the ointment being the 850s aren't quite forecast to be deep enough to deliver snow for everyone, as still the usual suspects mentioned in here remain best favoured for snow, hilltops and moors. Nonetheless, the chill is descending and with my eyes on lower than normal heights across the continent, the general picture has to be one which eventually favours early snowfall for many. Watch thsi space! The next particular timeframe of intrique comes about next weekend, well there's a recurring trend.

Or better still the actual weather, they are all but predictions/forecasts after all. But like James Brown, "I feel good" about things, currently as a coldie. I'll await the UKMO 12z and ECM 12z with interest tonight.

Agreed, all coulds, if, buts and maybes. However, I'm liking the trend towards something we haven't seen much of in Novembers past, i.e. something colder than the norm and with some snow potential. I won't even bring up that year we all talk about. Expect the usual inter-model and inter-run upgrades and downgrades and focus on the 0z and 12zs daily, would be my suggestion to the less knowledgeable and experienced forum readers in here. Maybe save a chart or two to your pc, laptop etc. and see if you can see which way things are set to be developing into the end of November and beyond. Here's to the ECM 12z, will it be a moment to celebrate for coldies, even if the actual timeframes are still some days ahead.

Agreed and whilst I'm not one for delving into discussions over deep FI charts, the short-term Synoptics are favouring more of the UK to see November wintriness than during most recent years. The usual suspects will likely see the largest amounts of snowfall with even some temporary accumulations. A right ole wintry mix for the rest of us up to the timeframes denoted by those later charts. We should see a colder than normal November this time around and that in itself is something coldies should be happy to witness, historically-speaking. The ECM version above, denoting a cold continent is much needed if lowland parts of England are to witness their first snows of the season and some further seasonal frosts might also aid the cooling pattern. @Bring Back1962-63's post from last night is an excellent read if any folk had missed it. If you're pushed for time in reading the frantic updates in here, please do check that out.

WTF

I suspect it's their idea that Atlantic fronts will be trying to make inroads after Sunday but bumping into cold already in-situ. Kind of what Knocker summarised in his post, but with the usual caveats, D6/D7 and beyond is only to be used as a guide IMHO.