gottolovethisweather

I verify this as "Post of the day", nicely put together Aaki Khan.

I must say, that is an absolute perfect placement of the High-Pressure cell there too, couldn't have drawn a more perfect chart for the start of a new weather year. If such charts are still being predicted in a couple of days henceforth I'll be very interested, just not getting too excited yet.

What timeframe is that Steve?

BUMP. Not that I've followed the outputs of late as I've been otherwise engaged but it seems five days on, most predictions are still on course for a rather cold end to this year and potentially and even colder beginning to the new one. Glad to witness plenty of consistency in the modelling (based on other folk's analysis of it) as there often is when HP is ruling the roost somewhere nearby. Get outside and enjoy the beautiful weather away from parts NW while you can, people.

Well, the future must be bright given some of the outputs of late and the fact that the sun even came out briefly here in Newbury, complete with seasonal drizzle, so a kind of a drizzly sunshine, lol. If any the films I've watched of late verify, it'll be an interesting end to 20-16 and beginning of 2017. SNOWMAGGEDON and ICETASTROPHE If only? One never knows. Have a great day, all. Best Wishes gottolovethisweather

Blocked to the East of us, Blocked to the West, Stuck in the middle with nothingness. Deuce points.

I've got one question for you then, Pete. Will it snow in Wimbledon?

Orgasms aside, it is all weather-related discussion. Any pictures or the orgasm didn't happen? Second thoughts I'm off to the watch the ECM unravel.

Errr, nope. Winter is about a possible record-breakingly mild and pretty darn breezy Christmas day. Welcome to 2016. What of 2017? All the mildies might be screaming If only it could last and people wouldn't get their runny noses and frostbitten fingers and toes. I say be careful what they wish for, post-Boxing Day and onwards it might get quite nippy by day and night with stubborn fog returning instead of stubborn Jetstream drove depressions hurling themselves towards parts North and Northwest UK. All to play for by then, but primarily mild, damp and gloomy at times and very windy beforehand. The snow will return, it simply feels like an age before it ever does so that when it does arrive, REVEL IN IT! Make snow angels, run around naked in it, take videos, photos, the lot, its getting rarer in the UK for sure. Who knows whether my mate or my niece's kids will ever witness deep snow cover away from the highest hills in future, one can hope they will in this climate of extremes of ours, for now, I might send them on a one-dayer to the Sahara lol. We have to laugh otherwise, we'd all cry.

What have I started, lol. YouTube videos everywhere. Quietly yet quickly attempts to dig out a blocked scenario development, this from the overnight ECM 0z at t+168 hours (28th December). A doodle showing the hoped for "stuck in the middle with you" blocked scenario, not one that is currently on the cards, but COULD yet develop as the NWP outputs play about with all such possibilities over the coming days.

Yes indeed Legritter, I think some cold days ahead as we close out the year, a tad deja vu, but I'm not bothered, dry, frosty by night, chance of ice days all suggest it'll be fantastic for walks out in the countryside.

So in other words, BLOCKED to the West of us, BLOCKED to the East of us, STUCK IN THE MIDDLE OF YOU. Wow, a song from the year I was born. Happy Christmas everyone. I quite like the battleground atmospheric stagnation in the model outputs post-Christmas because it makes us deliberate what might come about as we enter the New Year, something we'll be debating over for days no doubt.

I personally don't understand all the debate over whether something is cold or cool or balmy as to me it's all barmy and doesn't do much to assist confused or those less-experienced in model reading. But today was cold in Newbury, Berkshire today with a 5.5c Maximum at midnight and a daytime high of 4.4c; that's cold enough for wintriness given the right parameters. As for the upcoming days, it is suggested the big day itself will be mild, but even that could change right now, aside from the more cool rPM air than anything else with the briefest warm sectors in between. Come, Boxing Day into the turn of the year, it may well become more settled and more appropriately less STORMY, not that the South should see much in the way of rain or gales, bar tomorrow if current expectations go to plan.

Ah, we should all realise that we can second guess the weather, just as we cannot second guess Mother Nature. Much respect to those who put their collective heads above the parapet, though, at least it always gives us something to whine about, lol.

Always is, always will be.

I don't mind a bit of stubborn fog, tends to make things feel more seasonal and can't often keep things chilly. It's the stubborn heights over Europe and due south of us I don't want in winter and those stubborn jet stream disturbances. Off to hunt darts action now, not chart action.

It sure does seem to struggle post D5 from what I've scrutinised of late, but I tend to only follow the 12zs of all NWP outputs and compare daily, which seems to provide more consistency in terms of understanding their evolution.

Thanks as ever Phil Nw for your input. As others might have missed my post as it lurks at the bottom of the previous page, I'll link to it below. I concur with all that Phil states above. The Jet is about to get big time FIRED UP!

Three days on and we can now approach the festive period with a higher degree of confidence in the forecast. A significant (memorable?) period of active zonality and not your typical SW'rly type is set to besiege vast areas of the United Kingdom during the festive period. In particular, if I were living in the Northern extremities I would be preparing myself for that "everything but the kitchen sink" reference above. As for the specifics nearer the time stick with the local forecasts and media updates as I think these next ten to twelve days will start getting a lot of media attention. We needn't be fearing for our lives here, but we do need to use a lot of common sense when making travel plans, etc., etc. This prediction of forecast conditions could easily get downgraded in time, but equally, with a ferocious Jet Stream going bananas spinning depressions towards the UK (Tomasz's words not mine) I would at least, keep tuned. Nothing overly mild except brief spells of WAA ridging between the lows, temporary periods of wintry precipitation are on the cards too. Cool to average, little chance for frosts and sustained dry weather, in other words, UNSETTLED being the key phrase to describe our upcoming weather pattern. Down IMBY it might not be much worth writing home about but matters not to me, there is much going on elsewhere for me and others to focus on. TAKE CARE. Let's see what tonight's ECM makes of the next few days now.

Can you please clarify your future posts with the timescales you are referring to, otherwise we end up with a lot of posts like this very one, querying what you mean. IDO, you are not alone in this as plenty of other folk do the same , anyway........ Onwards and upwards. Enjoy your evening, people.

Christmas Day looks mild, but the 20th, 22nd, 23rd and the 24th all look below average even in the temperate South for once. Are you cherry picking your comments now I'm Dreaming of A White Christmas? Anyway, I'm intrigued by what you think might happen by D16 and will await those analyses with interest. To my mind, tonight's ECM is something to be treasured given the flow is largely from off the Atlantic throughout. Much to be cheery about IF the ECM were to verify, not perfect for coldies but any means but NOT as desperately poor as some might think it is, from reading in between the lines on some of the posts in here tonight. Off to watch the darts, enjoy your evening IDO and everyone else!

A perfect analysis of how things currently stand, the good Captain I thank you muchly. At least that's a posting I've managed to take something from, given all the private conservations between individuals in public in here previously. However, I do believe wintriness is likely to feature more within the media forecasts as we approach the big day. The 23rd/24th December remains of interest for coldies away from my back yard, as does post Boxing Day. With forecasts hinting at even the remotest chance of a few people seeing some magic white crystals, I'd grasp that opportunity with vigour giving the far from perfect stratospheric conditions right now, so enjoy it as and when it does come about. How's the ECM unfolding anyone?

In six months time, I'd love those charts to verify (I bet you would too, Summer Sun), hopefully that's where they'll stay, come the more reliable ECM 12z runs.

Happy Christmas to you too, I'm Dreaming Of A White Christmas. You're surely too wise (like all of us old-timers), to write off prospects of some transient snowfall come the festive period, especially given we are talking timeframes of t+19,000 minutes or thereabouts. Yet, you did cleverly present an argument for all options being on a table, I say it a few more days of model runs before jumping on board, the nothing festive happening train. BTW I do think the 22nd into the 23rd December holds some wintry interest for a few as this period has held firm as being that way over a number of outputs now. Happy Christmas to everyone else too. Off out shortly, the ECM will likely restore some faith for coldies.

After tonight's cheerier updates (well, if you're active seasonal weather, they be cheery) I thought I'd BUMP my post from around midday. John Hammond's BBC long-ranger update was also an intriguing one. Slowly, Slowly, Catchy Monkey.