gottolovethisweather

We do Pete before t+12,800 minutes have elapsed, it's fresh and crisp mornings on occasion for most, bright gin skies sometimes and some cloudier ones at other times. Temperatures will barely breach double-digits by day, and there will be little if any rain. I best go, as the first chart showing the inevitable breakdown has less than 12,798 minutes now to come to fruition. Timescales guys, have faith in the here and now and come D8 maybe then we can start believing in some of the various outcomes chucked up these computer generated pieces of guesswork.

Yep, in April, beautiful.

I think most people are over analysing things and judging their expectations on developments post T+10,080 minute timescales. Yes, guys and gals, a D7 chart is really that far way . Anything can happen in the next 10,079 minutes (although we've lost many since whilst I was in the land of nod(, yet we are still in the very high thousands of minutes as I type this. HP influence largely rules the roost until then with variations in Air Temperatures and cloud cover by day and by night until D7.

Fair dos, I'm Dreaming Of, please take heed of my subsequent edit in red text in the original reply. Different ensembles are chucking up differing options right now, none of which show SW'rlies or rainbands hence my predictions of much frost and fog by night as and when cloud cover permits. Regarding surface cold, I think it will trend colder by the day for several days yet.

First of all, apologies for bumping the above post from earlier yet, "all right stop, collaborate and listen" I think the ECM has latched onto something here and it doesn't want to let go of this emerging trend. For fans of active Atlantic weather, I guess you take a few days leave of watching the models. For fans of settled weather, enjoy and those into Vanilla Ice go check the daily forecasts. "Ice ice baby, Ice ice baby" is going to be the main weather headline as we move into the first month of Meteorological Winter.

I prefer the relationship status of "Not Telling" which is presumably more accurate.

Yes, the first proper cool to cold spell (below average for at least 3-4 days consecutively next week) upcoming for London and the SE area in general. Nothing new for parts due North of the Midlands and parts of Ireland as they've endured several cold days of late. Judging by that graph as others have stated don't put too much faith in any model outputs past the 1st/2nd December right now but look for interconnected scenarios across the 12zs and days past. A long haul to snow filled conditions but the cold is a-coming in. Over to the ECM and I'd suggest you shouldn't panic if it diverts back to an alternate scenario past D7, as it's simply toying with all the uncertainties at that timeframe and beyond. Main takeaways to hope for if a coldie, is a blocked Atlantic and an increasing depth of cold over the nearby continent. EDIT: Oops, the ECM operational is having none of the above, so far it seems. However, we should never take the forecasted 850s as gospel, whether looking for either milder or colder solutions as lingering FOG will result in huge differences at the surface.

Yep, Peregrine. Unless it's an escaped falconers bird such as a Lanner or somesuch. Certainly looks like a Peregrine to my eyes.

And everything beyond t+168 on yesterday ECM's went awry too in terms of warmth hence my suspicions. Another reason why our fabled northerlies or cooler/warmer spells (whichever happens to be your choice) need to get within the reliable before being given any special attention. I think the pros refer to this as macro and micro scale forecasting, although I may be wrong, lol. Macro being the upper air global viewpoint and micro being the specifics at the surface i.e weather fronts, surface lows and highs etc. The ongoing hints at an extension of the current spell of HP influence have been there over a few 12z runs now in particular. Matching intra-operational runs teaching us much more once again than when observing the consecutive inter-model runs.

No further comments necessary as it appears I was on the ball. Here's hoping the 0z is the new trendsetter. If this is the new evolution (difficult to judge on simply one run in isolation as this doesn't tell the full story), if you're looking for the white stuff, it'll be ice rather than snow for a while yet. Longer spells of HP dominance as I've said several times before should be welcomed by coldies as they are often precursors to something special down the road. I'll vouch for a CET well below normal this December now even at this stage, game on!

That's a Mistle Thrush, Kevin. Not far of a Song Thrush either, but certainly not a Fieldfare I'm afraid.

Post D7 tonight's ECM has lost the plot! Still, all to play for IMHO and will reanalyse things again come Monday after the weekend wobbles, but I do think HP dominance will likely continue into the first week of December.

Supposedly replying to Matt's post above and not Knocker's knock above at colder weather through D6 to D10 timescales, but the Beeb are showing an Easterly is likely as soon as this coming Monday, not a cold one initially, of course. Thereafter, who knows but currently we have a chance of an extended period of HP influence or a flow from NW to NE, only time will tell. It won't be mild and there is still no sign of a rampant Atlantic. All good news for coldies. Ditch jumping on every run and put more trust in the 0z and the 12zs is what I say.

Here is a netweather guide on this very subject, so your answer can be found in there. Put simply; it is where the divergence begins between the individual member runs (29th/30th I'd suggest in your example), which determines where FI begins and where it's at which timeframe its's greatest deviation is shown is where folks should order the truckload of salt. In my case, I hope the salt is most definitely necessary this winter, and from the attached graph central Europe looks like needing that truck, and a bit sharpish!

Which is precisely why the overanalysis by a few members, perhaps those less-experienced model watchers is rather daft, all IMHO. When looking at charts in isolation, it is important to understand precisely where FI begins (i.e. D5 in Nick's doodle above), it can also be found on any GEFS or equivalent ensembles chart as well. Again, without doing so, this makes stressful responses like (just like last year, end of winter, bad chart, good chart, epic chart or whatever right into the depths of FI equally silly. This time people, chill, let the ECM op run past D5 or whatever and then comment. Look for Nick's shortwave, look at NH profile, is it similar to yesterday's ECM 12z or other's 12zs. Please don't clog up the pages with one-liners as folk will learn nothing from them. Where possible, post a chart especially when making comparisons. Over and out. Eyes on the prize, my friends.

As long as GP's ducks weren't born in last December's crazy mild and wet spell (perfect weather for ducks) I'm hoping his far superior forecasting skills are onto something. With last December providing me with a mean of 10c, it is something I NEVER want to witness again in all my life during winter. Those ducks once lined up, better be Siberian migrants and I hope they've followed the Waxwings in. My percentage chances of a wider wintry spell prediction for the turn of December has risen from 15 -20 percent around 25 to 30 percent right now. Will should know more by the beginning of next week when the dates in question are firmly within the reliable timeframe. The HP cell is set to increase in both strength and its dominance over the coming days, so all is as predicted so far.

A Nick F doodle, what could be better. Sometimes, perhaps it's my age (mid-40s), but I'd prefer a lot more posts such as this to help describe what are often complex terms and impending scenarios as the outputs unfold. So far then, it seems the GFS 12z is similar to yesterday's is it not? And I haven't heard any complaints about the UKMO. Onwards to the ECM in the hope that it doesn't divert too much from yesterday suggestions. Mid-range in the outputs is very encouraging if not slightly mundane to a few, and as for the turn of winter, it's a case of as you were, with several tempting charts being thrown into the mix. Am I taking any of them at more than face value at this range, of course not. I'd suggest a 15 to 20% chance of wintry Synoptics affecting us come the first few days of December just now. More to be revealed over coming matching runs.

As for trends, no trend is worth nailing to the mast past D6 or D7 at the moment as mentioned last night. With high pressure in charge for most from the middle of the week, this pre mid-range scenario is perfect for the cold brigade in here (if not a little tiresome for a few). If things carried on as per where we are right now in my neck of the woods, rain, murk and 7c by day and night, I'd be well annoyed. The fact is spells of calm, dry weather and a distinct lack of Atlantic driven weather are just what coldies should be welcoming with open arms. Throughout history, they've provided a base from which the coldest episodes have started. Mark my words, nowt much will be going on with the various outputs if you're looking for the holy grail of widespread falling snow for a few days yet but I for one, aren't looking past the drier evolution yet, bar some colder polar signals at the turn of November. A crisp cold frosty last few days to November is what I'd be wishing for, and I may well get my wish, but for now, I'd suggest we all back off from jumping on every run and look for evidence of matching 0z and 12z runs.

Yep, very much agree with CC and damianslaw's assessments above with HP influence being the primary driver of our weather by midweek and for several days after that. I wouldn't look much past D6 for any signs of nailed outputs as that's precisely where divergence in NWP outputs is at their greatest, so FI must broadly begin around the 26th/27th November right now. Given a bit more consistency across the 12z and 0z intra-runs, we should soon know where we are for the first few days of winter proper. Personally, I'm pleased to see the fixed pattern of HP nearby allowing things to dry up and aid further attempts at chilling the ground, given the fact I've only had one air frost thus far this autumn, despite Novembers current CET mean being 1.2c below normal at home.

Dew points? I know I'm rather snow obsessed as a great many of us are, but I didn't mention the word. At least for once I didn't, I hear you cry, Knocker.

Hello, my friends. As posted over on the SE regional thread, I don't think we'll see much action within this region here, but you never know, still worth a heads up! "Angus incoming then. Might be a tad windier than my latest video clip on naturestimeline suggests, I'd say."

With Angus incoming. It might get a tad windier than my latest video clip on naturestimeline suggests, I'd say.

Angus incoming then. https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2016/11/19/angus-the-first-named-storm-of-autumn-2016/ Might be a tad windier than my latest video clip on naturestimeline suggests, I'd say.

The trend is our friend. This is the most likely outcome now, to my mind.

Frost and fog and a chance to dry things out before the first winter month. I'll bank that chart with open arms! I actually believe this will be the form horse as I mentioned in a post a few days back. It'll certainly bring the CET mean down.