gottolovethisweather

I like the look of that, given it's at a D7 to D10 range and it suggests average temperatures at worse (for coldies like me) away from the rain-affected NW where it will be briefly milder. Kind of sounds like where we are right now in fact, temperatures perhaps a degree or two up on current values. With Europe looking cold and all that bottled up cold over the Russian territories, it'll be a mighty battle for the default zonality cup, it will likely go into extra time. A few chilly/cool days for most of us, with a brief interruption of a rainband/showers on Friday before a return to largely crisp and dry weather thereafter.

To the NW of the UK that is, is it not? Knocker. Defaulting back to the current pattern by then (D10), no panic for cold lovers for sure.

And during November. November currently set to warm out/up slightly in seven to ten days time, believe it when I see it. For now, some most interesting Northern European synoptics before we even get there as there was throughout October as well. A November with a difference is upcoming, I'm almost certain.

As others have stated, the Northern European picture has changed little for several days now, as my post from last Monday above shows and seemingly my attempt at a forecast still holds true as we head into the first 7-10 days of November. I do think most of us can make relatively accurate predictions (as can the models themselves) of the short-term and sometimes into the mid-term or further ahead, when High Pressure and associated blocking holding patterns rule the roost. As a result, I can't claim to be ahead of the game, yet when default zonality does eventually return, prepare yourselves for turmoil in here as inter and intra-run will chop and change like the err (forecasted) weather. FWIW, I see no reason to believe why we shouldn't get some early wintriness progressively heading south as we go deeper into the first half of November (especially favouring Northern and Eastern parts) as none of the model output suites are currently showing much else other than what I suggest. Wrap up warmly next bonfire weekend, is all I'll say for now.

I haven't been following the models or model output discussion thread of late, but I think November will bring some quite widespread cold and wintry Synoptics to all. I like most others like to attempt their pattern match routines, and so far this Autumn and in part the Summer CET mean comparisons lend themselves to a 2010 situation developing. Given the blocking and deep cold bottled up under the stubborn upper high, it wouldn't take much for the cards to fall right for once. Please regard this, simply as a "gut feeling" post from gottolovethisweather, and not much else. A frosty bonfire night would be a good bet right now, I feel.

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Yes, those 2015 charts indeed show a hint of "peaked too early". What to make of this year, I'll that to others to give us some insight on. As ever I'll get all the more excited about thinking the UK's snowy prospects come the second week of November onwards. Tis odd, though, how stubbornly the Easterly winds have persisted and so early in the season as well. Kind of reminiscent of 2013's early Octobers' snow-infested Easterlies in the US which devasted a lot of farming practices over there due to the early snowfalls. An interesting watch once again.

On the edge of the main precipitation band here and it will certainly snow and potentially settle up on the downs but down in Newbury, it might be a different story. Pleased to see all the snow reports coming in, tis long overdue for many. AT down to 2.8c here now and 84% humidity which translates to a dewpoint of 0.3c. Hoping it stays on the heavy side for a while yet before turning back to rain by morning.

Any analysis forthcoming on tonight's ECM guys n gals. Might be some snow overnight for a few around Central and SE parts, although not much likely to settle. Overall I am pleased with the analysis of my post from Tuesday as I didn't look too far past this week and so far all has gone according to expectations.

Agree with most you say there except the "pointless" reference as that seems a bit harsh to me, all imho.

Indeed, people whether experienced or inexperienced might do well to Google "The Butterfly Effect" aye Phil.

I think it will mainly be snow on the plain and rain or sleet for everyone else as opposed to rain on the plain, lol. The intensity and timing of the precipitation are paramount. Those in more central parts might fare best as most of the wintriness is expected to die a death by early morning tomorrow when it reaches the far Southeast.

How could anyone hate snow after seeing that, pure magic. A truly beautiful video William Grimsley.

I am always concerned when it comes to snow forecasts down in our region and equally, I'd be concerned when you're not concerned about any snow prospects. I take it, your hill got some of those magic white crystals today, Mulls?

I haven't had a chance to check all the reports in here today but further to my post in the MOD thread yesterday linked below, I confirm I had a "snow seen falling" day today alongside a "hail day". Can't be bad, onto Friday for the next action then!

Now I'm getting slightly more excited than I have all through this Winter with regards to wintry precipitation prospects. Note my use of the word "wintry". Over the coming five days perhaps beyond hold almost daily nationwide wintry interest in terms of blizzards at elevation, snow, sleet and ice. Of course, the usual suspects should fare best but there are likely higher chances of brief periods of widespread wintriness this time around. Parts North and West in Scotland and Northern England down to Central regions i.e. the Pennines are almost guaranteed to see some lying snow with thawing by day for many a day to come. Thursday the driest day this week for them. An 80-90% chance of seeing snow falling and perhaps lying especially over higher ground. Parts South and Southwest England can only hope for hilltop snow or overnight events, where snow chances are greater at such a time when parameters fall right. A 50-70% chance of seeing snow falling but only lying briefly at elevation Parts due East might also get lucky for the white stuff over the coming days with tomorrow morning/early hours of Thursday holding their best chances in the near-term. I rate their chances of seeing snow falling at 70-80% with little hope of lying snow, other than at elevation. I hope the above is of interest and my thoughts cover the first half of March in general and are taken from a number of sources from both in here and via some media forecasts. March will have a sting to it (note short-term strong wind potential courtesy of Storm Jake for instance). More especially I think it's safe to say that Spring warmth will be a long time in coming just yet.

No low confidence in Temperature predictions though I'd suggest. It will be cold nationwide, whether it can be deemed very cold is questionable but I've seen projected maximums next week of only 5c down South which is nippy. Of course, these are town/city Temperatures which suggests a cold enough spell for nationwide wintry precipitation if only it were apparent. This prospect in itself feels me with joy and is a good enough reason to be watching this week's forecasting prospects very closely.

Hi Karl, my earlier post wasn't meant as a dig so sorry if it came over that way, just that for us down South, at least in the immediate term I see very little chance of this event producing settled snow. As for your reply here to winterof79 like you, I believe the best chance is when evaporative cooling is at its strongest and that is into the overnight period. The crucial timeframes are from midnight through to 9am on Thursday in my opinion, so whoever sits under the precipitation band at that hour COULD well wake up to a cover of snow. The clock is ticking for this event now and timing and location is key to whether one gets the magic white crystals or one doesn't. As for the medium to longer-term things for coldies might be looking even better, so no point in giving up yet on snow hopes even down in what is largely tropical lowland Southern England.

I don't want to be a killjoy but are these simply not charts showing the precipitation type expected rather than a prediction of snow cover? (granted you've used the word could Karl). The reason I ask is that I forsee the wet snow truly struggling on what will likely be wet surfaces in the first instance. Perhaps it is still possible but away from the South, Southeast and Southwest I'd be shocked to see any snow cover other than possibly at elevation, say above 200m or so. Northern England and NE England in particular, having a strong likelihood of an all snow event hence a much better chance of lying snow there and not exclusively at elevation. An interesting watch anyhow and the excitement building over the snow potential is good viewing in here.

And a couple of lovely crisp cold dry (aside from some wintry showers towards the East) days to start the week, I love Winter. Largely rain during the main mid-week event but back edge snow, especially at elevation cannot be ruled out at three to four days range.

Yes, from the media forecasts I've watched so far, they are expecting back edge snow (most likely from central to Eastern regions based on current thinking) on Wednesday through to Thursday. We shouldn't get too hung up on the specifics as the timeframes of said event are moving and if the cold fronts move in at a pace and catch up with the warm front an occlusion(!) occurs and snow will likely fall more widely. Questions then will be, how much can settle on already saturated ground, the heaviness of the precipitation, where and when and how fast the mixing out of air masses might assist in boosting the snow-making potential. Yep, far too complex and complicated right now to second guess anything with regards to the snow and it'll be a wait and watch until Tuesday for me. The colder that Northerly airflow is beforehand the better. Exciting times ahead, whatever.

Taken at face value, am disappointed at the poor prospects of lowland snow for those of us in Southern and SouthWest England. However, considering this is still at approximately t+6000 minutes range (see my post from last night) I'm happy to note you are considering the uncertainty in what must be quite a difficult and challenging forecast for the professionals. All to play for.

Karl is no model as far as I'm aware and this thread is purely for model output discussion, perhaps you could PM him Snowmut?

Indeed Frosty/Karl and another important aspect to consider are the timescales involved. A note to all................................................... When and if people get hung up about inter-run differences at t+144 which show those ultimately salivating uppers of +20 850s in Summer or -10 in Winter one minute and hey ho , they're gone the next run, why are they surprised at this? People are of course always going to be disappointed when they disappear from one run to the next, yet of course this random climate/weather variation of type is to be expected when speaking of t+12000 minute timescales (equates to only five days ahead if my sums are correct). What folk need to do is save their own charts of interest to the cloud or on their tablet/pc/laptop over a period of days and see just how much variation there truly is at such a timescale, yet alone well within the reliable say <t+48 for instance. Our old hand John Holmes among others regularly tells us to try this approach and to compare like with like (eg. 12z with 12z) operational runs and only then can you get a reasonable idea as to why things do upgrade or downgrade against one's favoured weather type on a regular basis. Enough of that, this is borderline model output discussion at best, I suspect very much like those borderline rain/sleet/snow events upcoming.

The air even then is not that cold sadly, to be fair either, so swings and roundabouts I guess. Mind you D5 range is still far enough in the future for things to favour some wintriness around before hand. Snow on the hills even down South is a decent enough probability, whilst for others it will be marginal at best away from those sweet spots such as the Pennines, NE and Southern Scotland. Monday and Tuesday look set to be the coldest days of the upcoming cool to cold spell.