gottolovethisweather

I haven't caught up with all that has been said about the GFS 12z and the UKMO equivalent but this isn't a bad chart within the realms of the reachable and achievable. Furthermore I had previously alluded to this snow risk in a past post, so worth considering should you be out and about when seeing the New Year in, please do also take a glance up at those lamp-posts. The post in question complete with obligatory Fax Chart.

Granted, the above quote is from two weeks prior, when there were absolutely no signs of a change for the UK, yet alone for Europe across any of the model suites (besides Stratosphere charts which are out of my league). I can't help but highlight just how quickly the broader picture can change. Even, just 24 to 36 hours ago, it wouldn't be in your wildest of dreams that lowland UK wintriness would show up in any of the outputs yet alone within the confines of the reliable, i.e. D5 to D7. Anyhow, a cracking ECM once more, hopefully the cool to cold trend is firmly set. We've hit the bullseye with our mid-term forecast hopes so now its time for a darting consolation as well.

All I can say about tonight's ECM besides worrying over the surface specifics is HAPPY NEW YEAR! Do wrap up warmly and consider getting a new coat, hat and gloves out of the closet as proper Winter might finally be on its way.

On another topic, as the vast majority are hunting for wintry precipitation in here we must not discount late Thursday (New Years Eve) as an outside prospect for some surprise snowfall. No doubt, this will only be transient in nature and very fleeting stuff but it is certainly worth a heads up I feel. Also, the following morning (New Years Day) could bring about the first frost of the Winter for many of us too. The attached Fax chart at t+84hrs illustrates the situation well. Before all of that, the same ole sh*t story, rainfall figures out West (Tuesday's/Wednesday's events) are suggestive of totals in excess of 80-100mm in places during this one event. Roll on JANUARY!

It is forecast to be, yes, but that is a different matter to it actually being a realisation come the timeframes under scrutiny. I'm been watching that prospect develop from prior to the Christmas period yet we are still a few days away yet. I do believe the main weather headlines as I've stated previously will come from continental Europe come January which will make a change from us being in the headlines for incessant rain. Tonight's ECM and its associated ensembles should provide us with further assistance in our quest for cold/more seasonal synoptics. I'll be waiting with bated breath.

Hmmm, I'm not expecting it, seasoned model watchers and experienced posters alike aren't expecting the cold signal to disappear either, so why are you? Ali, not trying to chastise you here as we all learn from experience but you are discussing but only one NWP run in isolation, look at the broader picture and a change of sorts is on its way come January. It will be a matter of just how long it lasts, where the air is sourced from and whether a drier picture develops. I am not anticipating brutal cold and snowfall but I am anticipating something much chillier for once. Take care now and eyes down for the more reliable 12zs later today.

One certainty, whatever one might say about the control runs of today's ECM, UKMO or GFS and moreover from the broader theme which is continuing on from recent days, is that January is going to much COLDER than December. Obvious you may all be screaming, but a while back, even this aspect wasn't a given as we seemed to be on a continuation of a theme. I believe dreamlike Christmas type synoptics will continually show up through future model runs and outputs and the SNOW will come eventually. We might not have to wait too long. Halt that Atlantic zonal train for at least a few days and then it might be Jackpot time. The prospects for Europe are looking much better as without a cold continent, things cannot change in the UK unless we get a direct Northerly and just how long do they tend to last, not for long that's how long. Get the cold in and the snow will come. Darts time and its only on that channel that I want to see bullseye lows and highs from 2016 onwards. Winter proper is set to start in 2016 but it still feels a long haul to get there for now, why, simply because we're all pondering over charts at D6 range and beyond, chill guys n gals, chill.

I'm not frosty although I'm hoping it'll turn frosty some day soon.

According to those charts it's still at least nine days away, nice to peer over but... That is not to say, something better isn't on its way, these charts are increasingly showing up in mid-range timeframes which can only be good. At least Eastern Europe has something to savour too, last snow they had was in October I believe, so its not just in the Uk who are snow-starved. Average to colder than normal Temperatures would be a good start, which is precisely what those charts show.

Yes PM, something is a-changing up above us in the H500 pattern and for several days now, I have not once failed to believe that something better for coldies is on its way at the turn of the year. Obviously, at first a drier pattern would be nice to see and then we can worry about the specific surface details as we move on through time. Some runs drop the deepest cold patterns, some runs drop the Easterly signal, nothing new there. The wider view of things indicate the synoptic patterns are set to change across Europe (at last!) come mid to late next week and the Atlantic for once (at least for a few days) will struggle to push its fronts Eastwards over us. Watch Tuesday's low and look where that goes, up towards the North Pole? Tuesday through Thursday could be very wet out West unfortunately, which is one to watch. Thereafter other forecast surface developments seem to increasingly head towards France or Spain, which means the Jet is having a tendency to dive South. Baby steps, but hopefully some joyous news for once, for those desperately needing a change to our current set up.

Indeed and this is the biggest concern pre the New Year period. I couldn't believe the track the BBC forecasts were showing for Tuesday's beast of a low, it has it swinging NE at first as expected but then straight Northwards towards Iceland and onto the North Pole, very odd but supposedly feasible. I wouldn't look much past this date in any detail but hints are that the New Year will see a change to a drier spell, regarding Easterlies I'll believe them when they get into <t+48 hours, so no consideration over them from me right now. Storms, deluges, some drier spells (tomorrow looks nice) and then hope of a pattern change of sorts come the New Year is how I see things.

Re: a couple of posts above my own, move along the bus please, nothing to see here. Private mails between members are always best for these one to one discussions, Thank you kindly. As otherwise they add nothing to this thread, furthermore there is a LOT of weather discussion to be had, is there not? Overall, I'm pleased to witness an increasing likelihood of something completely different being offered up, come the New Year. Heights are lowering over parts of Europe as soon as the 30th December and once we get there, we will know whether the change and that hyped up Easterly is a-coming to our shores. This is the first piece of a very big puzzle, alongside this we need that second/third low during the upcoming days to dive SE into Western Europe, or at least fill/stall/peter out due South of the UK and then it'll be a good sign of a game-changer which will hopefully set about a new pattern for a number of days in January. A lot of water under the bridge to come yet, quite literally. Stay safe all, Happy Boxing Day and play and stay safe.

Indeed. We are all guessing in truth, professionals and amateurs alike. Furthermore, we have no control over it all. If we did, we wouldn't have chosen some poor blighters to up the heads in flooded misery. Anyway, lets get back down to the business of discussing the current outputs as merry and happy beings, always looking out for the ideal scenarios of sausage-shaped highs and pulverised PVs. Grub up!

A bit of kink for New Years Day is always good to look out for. January 1st is hopefully becoming the New Year New weather game-changer, one can only hope. At least soon we surely won't still be saying that it looks like further rain, dear. Unfortunately before 2016 there is a lot of messy weather to be had around a few parts of the UK, including that beast of a low come next Tuesday. Whatever the weather, enjoy yourselves, I'm must be off to eat that Christmas pudding.

Netweather can be a very empowering place with all the knowledge that floats around its towers and as a result, I wish you all (my friends) the very merriest of Christmases. As for the outlook, I agree with Frosty, forget 2015, 2016 is when Winter Strikes Back. Can you feel the force of good will to all men and women, the snow will surely come to those who wait patiently. Sit back for now, watch the runs (too many brussels perhaps?) unfold , put on those ole Christmas movies when snow was snow and it seemed to be even better than the real thing. <iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WEDboC4mBYk" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> <iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WEDboC4mBYk" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> https://youtu.be/WEDboC4mBYk

That is certainly a horrid chart but my interest is concentrated upon the New Year, suffice to say that the next seven days aren't going to worthy of talking about, just not for coldies. Gales, rain, further flooding, mildness, sounds like Autumn in Winter again to me, so no, I cannot get excited about that chart or anything showing up over the next seven days. Perhaps, the represented chart represents a final hurrah to the current setup, those folk expected to having received a Metre of rain in December alone, will certainly hope so.

Overall they are trending the right way though Mucka, albeit still up and down but more downs than ups to my mind as we enter D7 and beyond. BTW, on another note, Christmas Day is set to begin colder than initially forecast, with some scraping a frost and with the approaching front bumping into colder air as it travels Northwards, some transient (not much worth talking about in truth) snow over hillier regions is likely. Again, this latter aspect should only effect folk in Northern England Northwards.

And furthermore I think that will won't probably verify as shown. At least it still gives us something to talk about.

Like you say PM airstreams look set to have more of an influence as we enter the New Year and as the ensembles shown back this up, it does look more encouraging to me. Before that, more miserable mildness and potential for bucket loads of rain where it isn't wanted. All the tropical type moisture laden airmasses serve to do is to bring us increasing prospects of record-breaking statistics, be it for rain or warmth. It's beginning to feel a lot less like Christmas. Aye IDO, I'm dreaming of a New Year weather switch-around in coldie's fortunes and it can't come soon enough. I'm not greedy, a December frost would simply do for starters.

For the forseeable, yes but with 80 days of post Solstice Winter to run from January 1st, I'd suggest the Scandinavian/Russian Heights might yet yield something tastier for us coldies for January and beyond. Granted, until we lose the heights over Europe and the PV displaces itself somewhere else (which should happen simultaneously) I have largely written off December for anything else other the continuing current conditions. I'm more interested to see if we can scrape a rare December frost or two.

Thanks for your insights too MPG . Yes, less predictable though is the widespread mildness, in fact it's looking increasingly likely that nowhere will be cold over the festive period, at least by what's currently forecast.

Well, with only three days to go now until the big day, I guess my prediction wasn't so far out after all, especially given this was at D7 range. Now D7 (29th December) was previously judged by me and few others as the date when things start ramping up again in the Atlantic, after a brief spell of calmer weather. Unfortunately, this latter aspect looks rather unlikely now which proves how we can't look too far into the future when either chasing cold or mild weather. For now, the milder weather continues and Christmas Day and Boxing Day is looking rather unseasonal down South in particular but also for most of the UK. The change to something colder has to come eventually and I live in hope that I'll see at least an Air Frost before the year turns.

Indeed Scorcher, my departure from the "norm" figure read something like +5.4c last time I looked and it's resultant mean lies somewhat ahead of this year's mean for April, which itself was 1.2c warmer than usual. Small wonder, nature has responded in kind (truly feels like Spring to them) with its butterflies, daffodils and growing crops in the farmer's fields, at least where they're not under water.

Quite right Karlos, and therein lies the bigger issue as also mentioned in my latest post. Not that I'm overly disappointed as even the coldest Winters had their mild spells and desperate looking synoptics at times for a continuation of the cold. We truly need to get some dryness to set in, yer know Mother Nature those cold Winter mornings of old. Once a succession of those come along then you just never know where the middle third of Winter might end up. Alas, I had forgot to remember (!) that is only the Winter Solstice tomorrow and as that is when Winter truly begins, I can start thinking/dreaming of something better from here on in.

Well, no surprise to me, to witness the 12zs return with the official trend of heights to our N and NE. When I say official I am going on what the tv forecasts have been stating over recent days in their long-rangers. A few questions remain as to what happens post Christmas even now though. What will the surface Temperatures will be, come the D6 to D10 timeframes I'm speaking of? With increasing chances of night-time frosts I'm more than happy to bank such prospects, whatever happens around then. Those heights aren't diminishing across mainland Europe, sadly. Furthermore, the Atlantic regime is forecast to win out eventually, but not without a fight. Several days of crisp sunshine are certainly feasible and foggy mornings might yet return. Could still be some wintriness around over the Christmas period for a few lucky ones, more especially for those positioned nearer the Arctic (UK wise) and with elevation on their side. Over to tonight's ECM and will it return to its main trend of late or back to those less promising outputs of last night. I'm not even contemplating January for now as that is for those with greater knowledge than I, of such indicators as ENSOs, MJOs, Kelvin Waves and close shaves or whatever else might rhyme. Time for me to put my feet up and stop stressing over what might or might not happen.