gottolovethisweather

Was tucked up nicely in bed at that hour but it appears that I might have to note a SNOW falling day then PB, Thanks for the local (very) report.

1-0 to Mulls's little hill then it is and now for the rest of us. Next snow scores coming in Dartmoor/Exmoor perhaps?

4.2c AT 83% humidity resulting in a 1.8c DP so on the wrong side of marginal here. I suspect the period roughly speaking from 3am to dawn when that band of organised bits and pieces of rain, sleet and snow comes down from the North will be the timeframe for our best shot. I expect a few reports from the Welsh folk elsewhere and maybe from some in the East but away from elevation in our region there isn't much chance of any white stuff settling. Nonetheless the first flakes will fall in some parts and for that we can be grateful especially so early in the season as well.

Let it sleet, let it sleet, let it sleet. "practising reverse psychology here" of course, it will largely be rain or sleet at best for most BUT.... Those exposed to the Northerly and with elevation on their side might well see a dusting by morning. A few surface features in the flow showing up on the media forecasts so the next 36 hours may well bring surprises for some. FWIW I expect my local Wessex downs to have a slight dusting by morning. Out of interest, I think most of the organised stuff, mainly further East but not exclusively so will come into the overnight period.

Yes, agreed. Some nice pleasant reading and well thought out analysis posted up on these last few pages and the signal I take from things is that the Jet might be ramping up again post the weekend's wintry uncertainties and of course, therefore deeper into the start of December. I made reference to the more active Jet profiling predicted for the Pacific region on my last post as copied below, does anyone believe this might be the main reason for those deep depressions reappearing in the mid to long-term outputs again? Here is the link to my original post in its entirety and below that I've reproduced the relevant section regarding the Pacific region comments. "It is a bit pointless looking beyond D6 but if I were to look to D10 (0000hrs on Friday 27th November) it currently states the following regarding the NH Jet profile. This appears to show a continuation of things as per where we are now, so a return to Westerly flows and occasional passing depressions but hopefully not as ferocious or worryingly wet as the current ones. The most active part of the Jet appears to be over the Pacific regions by this time. I imagine this will have an impact on our shores come early December but just how it will affect us I will leave to others to ponder." It begs the question though in my mind whether this will bear any resemblance to what we've seen so far this Autumn, in fact I'd imagine spells of wintry precipitation will feature more often than otherwise would be the case. The main reason I suspect the colder than average scenarios will be more to the fore is due to the pretty unprecedented (well let's say odd looking) stratospheric feedback signals in addition to much touted NH snow cover situation. Both intriguing and difficult forecasting times ahead, marginality might well be the buzzword for December proper.

Again, I am looking at only the one run in isolation, that being the GFS 6z outputs, but Saturday is "where it is at" when searching for any snow prospects currently. The highest peaks in the SW look most favoured by things right now and beyond Saturday I wouldn't be getting your hopes up just yet. The English Channel disturbance for Friday is still there but this system only affects the far Southern coastlines and has no cold air entrenched within it. Although way off in FI land, next weekend could see another opportunity for wintry synoptic discussions but let's get this weekend's events out of the way first before contemplating such a scenario please. Many a run needed yet to firm up on those potential disturbances in the flow for the weekend but I'm afraid I'm not as optimistic as I might have been previously. Nonetheless I'm looking forward to watching it all develop and seeing just how cold it might get this weekend and just where the snow reports come in from.

A brief period of back-edge snow is possible come Friday evening but with so many factors at play, unable to consider this scenario until within 24 hours I'd suggest, so later Thursday before we get much idea on that. Showery bursts and disturbances in the flow are the better bet right now and location, location, location will be the key detail again to concentrate on, I imagine. With an individual's knowledge of one's own patch either promoting or downgrading these chances given the wind direction, ranging NW through to NE during the crucial period, it will differ greatly based upon that. The warm ground would never stand a chance against the polar air in stopping a build of snow if (a big IF) should the conditions be ripe for it. I hope that answers your questions Mulls and as for you and anyone else in here, I bid you nighty night. A wise woman you are.

Obviously subject to much change with regards to the specifics but those wanting wintry potential should look no further than tonight's GFS 18z offerings. From Friday night into late Sunday there is potential for a fair few centimetres/inches of snow particularly at elevation, should the anticipated disturbances in the flow come about as forecast. The best places in which to position yourself are those exposed to the Northerly winds and I must say currently Wales is undoubtedly the place to head within touching distance of our part of the world. The SW moors and perhaps those Mendip hills coming in a close second. This is intended as the briefest of analyses based upon one run in isolation so NOT my idea of an accurate prediction for impending weather patterns, especially when it comes to snow. A heads up is all it is for now and I will await more input from others and give it another 48 hours before attempting a sounder judgement on whether those hills are to turn white for the first time in many a month within this region. Frosts though, are a certainty given clear skies and that biting wind-chill is another.

A 46mph gust a few moments ago here in my relatively sheltered valley. 54mph being the highest the Davis has registered until now, all records since 2008.

Hi all, I've posted my thoughts as I currently see things developing for the rest of November on the attached link. https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84434-model-output-discussion-cold-snap-incoming-16th-nov-onwards/?p=3285204

Four days on from previous post here I will once again look at the NH Jetstream profiles as currently forecast by the GFS 00z on 17th November. This is the present picture, globally. Moving on just 18hrs you can see why there might be some concern over Barney (UK's second named storm this Autumn/Winter season) judging by the deep kink in that Jet profile right on our shores at this timeframe. The wind speeds and Barbs chart replicated below at t+18hrs shows the potential by this timeframe for some damaging gusts being around by then. Other forum members will provide better details on this aspect elsewhere within this forum, I'm sure. Right, onto the period of more interest for most in here, this chart from my post four days ago shows the anticipated NH Jetstream profile for midnight on Friday 20th November. Here is the reality as predicted by the GFS run overnight now at t+72 hours for Friday 20th November. The key differences to that forecast previously are a stronger more active Jet profile over mainland North America as highlighted. There is also a slightly different appearance to the anticipated Jet profile for our neck of the woods but all this results in is a delayed start to the colder air incursion. By late Friday and more appropriately into the weekend period it will have well and truly arrived over all parts of the UK. By Monday we were previously expected to see this NH Jet profile. Now the overnight runs predict the following by 23rd November 0000hrs. Even at this range, this is some 144hrs away which is a long time Meteorologically speaking and the key changes from the post from 4 days ago are over the North American continent, once again showing a more active Jet than previously. Also, over us the NH Jet profile is not as ferocious as hoped so this might suggest more of a colder blip than a potent polar blast. As for the "why, when and wherefores" regarding any snowfall predictions, I'd leave them in the back of your mind until later this coming Thursday at least in part due to more pressing issues occuring in the more immediate forecast which will potentially have ramifications on the outlook as well. It is a bit pointless looking beyond D6 but if I were to look to D10 (0000hrs on Friday 27th November) it currently states the following regarding the NH Jet profile. This appears to show a continuation of things as per where we are now, so a return to Westerly flows and occasional passing depressions but hopefully not as ferocious or worryingly wet as the current ones. The most active part of the Jet appears to be over the Pacific regions by this time. I imagine this will have an impact on our shores come early December but just how it will affect us I will leave to others to ponder. Now, just a couple of GEFS ensembles, Aberdeenshire and Warwickshire as per my previous post. Aberdeen precipitation forecasts show a generally unsettled picture once again (perhaps lessening in terms of impact by D7 onwards) with the wintry potential (as indicated by the 850s spreads enclosed) especially apparent through the period from late on Friday through to early hours of the following Monday. Warwickshire precipitation forecasts show a slightly less unsettled picture than further North with the wintry potential more likely through the period from start of Saturday through to the very early hours of the following Monday. All in all, a fascinating spell of proper Winter-like weather coming to our little island's shores from Friday onwards. The potency and longevity of which is open to question but by next Tuesday I believe it will have passed us all by. Even then, for those coldies amongst us, in which category I include myself, we can safely say we never expect to see those dizzy tropical-like maximum temperatures of 17c and 18c until the coming Spring season. Good riddance to you and Hello Wintry weather.

Hello cheery one, good to see you back in this part of the forum, Mulls. I'm hoping for the best regarding the weekend and into next week but pointless dwelling over any details with regards to snow. The colder air is finally arriving which is good news as far as I'm concerned, it will be more seasonal given that maximums of 17c are likely in some parts of our region tomorrow.

Further to fergie's post above, having seen what I've watched on tv forecasts I'll reiterate the following about BARNEY, tomorrow's named storm as quoted on the status updates. "Its still looking grim for some or entertaining depending on your viewpoint with 70-80mph gusts forecast at exposure and potential for 60-70mph gusts over much of mainland England. BATTEN DOWN FOR BARNEY! Tuesday afternoon through to late Evening is the key timeframe according to media forecasts I've seen."

2010 reasons to think it might happen but 2010 reasons why it might not, anyway that's enough about 2010, there's about 201.0 hours to go before such charts come to fruition. Might see things go BOOM in here should these charts still be there come the forthcoming Monday/Tuesday as they'll be well within the reliable by then and therefore likely to verify to one degree or another. I await the weekend wobbles within the various Model suites in the meanwhile and wait with bated breath to see whether the media/MetO/BBC start ramping up the potential too. Some fascinating discussion to come whatever the outcome. As mentioned previously, a lot of newsworthy nasty weather types around well before the potential for an initial burst of proper polar air infiltrates our shores.

Oops, lost my previous post damn. I was attempting to reply to Nick F's post in response to me above but alas the rest is history and so was my post. Analogues are a good guide as you state and I am happy to place quite a lot of emphasis on them because in nature, patterns can repeat themselves to differing degrees of severity and familiarity hence warm Novembers preceding colder Winters overall etc. I agree about the situation in Europe and with slowly changing that indeed brings coldies a smidgen of hope too. Anyhow, I'll move things on as to how I see the next couple of weeks panning out and perhaps beyond that too. Here is the current NH Jetstream situation. Here is where we were situated approximately this time last year. Whilst remembering these were forecast charts, this was what was expected for the start of the final third of November (20th November 2014 in fact) back in 2014 based upon the same output. Now we have an entirely more favourable setup expected for the 20th November 2015, this time around. Key differences are that a strong SW'ly Jet flow over the UK is NOT forecast to happen this year by the 20th. Rather, it is of course the predominant Westerly flow with colder air over the North Atlantic occasionally being infiltrated into the passage low pressure systems as they hurtle by us or over us during the period in question and also over the coming days.Key difference number two is that lackadaisical Jetstream pattern over the Pacific region, which is quite the opposite to that forecast in 2014 as shown by the encircled red splodges on my charts. No rampaging Pacific Jet in sight. Moving on to the 23rd November, ten days from now, even more of a "chalk and cheese" comparison with this time last year. The rampaging Pacific Jet was certainly apparent there. There is no rampant Pacific Jet forecast, undeniably good news. And what's NOT to like about that Jet profile forecast for the UK by then too, far removed from 2014 at the same time as again indicated by my red splodges and my blue arrows. Another thing to consider are of course, the ensembles, these are from the GFS 0z GEFS ensembles spread. I'll put up two locations, one for Scotland by way of Aberdeenshire and the other for central England courtesy of Warwickshire. Aberdeenshire t850s and precipitation forecasts. Warwickshire t850s and precipitation forecasts. Whilst the above give some guidance at a regional level, they will continually change and at least four times a day in terms of the GFS but the key timeframe to concentrate on, to my mind is again when the NH Jet pattern has a tendency to align itself more frequently from NW to SE which is from the 20th November onwards. The milder blips up North will come in between passing deep depressions and the 16th and 19th November look ripe for these at this stage, other than that the Air Temperatures will be in the slightly cold to average category up there throughout. That will of course be cold enough for snow at times in these parts. As the precipation rates show however, this is the area for real concern judging by what Scotland in particular has already received by way of rainfall and even snowfall today for instance. For central England, nothing especially cold for the forseeable with the period around the 16th November looking exceptionally mild and perhaps another date record breaker. Beyond this, the game-changer could be around the 20th November for something colder still, albeit perhaps temporarily so. Again there is also a wet signal for sure and maybe this is not welcome news either, given the saturated grounds around some parts. All in all, pretty seasonal stuff with a mish mash of colder and milder spells to come, changeable sums it up but NOT a repeat of this time last year. Keep your eyes and minds focussed on the potential for wintry outbreaks during the final third of November because once that switch is flicked you just never know what might arrive upon our shores and hopefully over the nearby continent. Perhaps the Climate Change conference venue in Paris during December will become snowed up?

Intriguing comment and a brave one at that, its not to say that you won't be right either. I can't pretend to possess your level of knowledge over things such as the stratosphere processes and ENSO, QBO and all that jazz but..... some memorable past mild Novembers were followed by significant spells of cold. 1946, 1962 and 2010 appear to match up quite well with what we have now, based upon what I've read elsewhere. Climate change is not a topic for this particular thread but our changed world certainly adds an extra dimension to any predictive analogue matching attempts. Your comments seem to echo this last aspect as well so 2015/16 may well be a memorable one. Of course, at the same time I'm not saying we'll get anything in that league this time around but the forthcoming seven to ten day's climatological setup is ripe for something both nasty and newsworthy. My thoughts based around what Helen Willett's latest BBC latest long-range forecast suggested, we are about to witness something of everything, more headline worthy will be the very strong winds and those deluges of rain in certain regions which clearly don't desire them. Impressively mild in the warm sectors (16-18c at extreme end quite often) and then darn chilly during other times, so a proper mish-mash. Something is up and the dice are being loaded so temporary snowfalls and wintry spells further South becomes increasingly more likely than not in my opinion. As I said though, I'll await your more knowledgeable approach to the impending period rather than predict it myself as I am largely going on gut feeling as I haven't looked into all those factors aforementioned to any great length this time around.

Yep, proper Autumnal conditions today, roll on Winter which will hopefully not be more of the same as what we have now. I want some sunny skies again and clear frosty nights, plenty of time to wish my life away yet though.

I was going to say 2009-10 looked the closest matching dataset and if so, well we all know the score with early part of that Winter. Gut feeling, nothing scientific but based on few hints here and there is that we could see a similar set up. If a much colder spell is also due later in Winter then between those two impending scenarios offered up, it could well be a long ole for those hoping for something mild and wet. 2009/10 a close correlation there, is there not? In early November, matters not I'd say.

Not sure if anyone picked up on the following quoted section but its is certainly mind-boggling. Explosive cyclogenesis in our part of the world is defined as maybe a couple dozen millibar pressure drop during six hours or similar but in this beast, there are some crazy figures mentioned, see below. http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-patricia-mexico-coast "During that same time, the minimum central pressure of Patricia also decreased 100 millibars, from 980 millibars to 880 millibars." *the above occured within a 24-hour window, as well. Glad I'm watching this from afar, if truth be told.

Not even Usain Bolt can do that, but then again if the Daily Excess says it is possible you just never know.

Ouch.

I'm not saying a word. Simply view my post from yesterday evening again for the potential. https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84124-model-output-discussion-18z-300915/?p=3271925 SM and a good few other coldies might yet pay a visit to these forums again within a couple of days, should these types of chart outputs continue to show up within the mid to short-range timescales. Patience grasshopper should you be of a wintry disposition, when it comes to your choice of Autumnal weather as we might just be seing history repeating itself.

Thanks and by some strange coincidence, having never seen this post, I've just mentioned that particular event in the MOD thread a moment ago, given some of the Model Output hints at D7 onwards.

Just diving in here and haven't looked at the models myself but have read some of the commentary about potential snow up Norf come the weekend. This much colder weather has been mentioned of late on the BBC forecasts too on occasion. All conjecture when discussing wintry stuff at t+168hrs as it truly is even in the heart of Winter itself but........... and here is the thing. Back in 2008, there was a late October snowfall of temporary nature which also provided a decent covering up on the local downs, so do NOT be surprised, should the various models firm up on this briefly much colder signal in a few days time. The date for the record, would be the equivalent of simply ten days from now, the 29th October 2008. Wintry showers were filtering down offshore towards Rye Harbour in Sussex back then during the height of the day. Certainly some food for thought, for any coldies.

Yes the current setup is a bonus to be fair, with these early snowfalls for some across the nearby continent, it has to be positive I guess.