gottolovethisweather

And some 24 hours on, the D7-D10 charts continue to paint a similar picture, the trend to build heights over us and to our NE is definitely the new trend and the trend is our friend. Slowly slowly catchy monkey but potentially I forsee a more settled spell coming to our shores post Christmas. Boxing Day is the key timeframe for when this Winter might just start to turn around for the better for coldies (well, at least this one who wants some crisp frosty nights if nothing else). No freezingly bitter cold Temperatures on offer yet but watch this space, just give it plenty of time for that aspect. The Christmas period according to the ECM is certainly more festively average to cold feeling with Boxing Day yet again proving the most likely day to see any wintriness up North beyond Northern England.

And it is as if tonight's ECM has read the script, my script that is. Baby steps and tis but only one run, nonetheless the signs are there for something better, colder, drier and sunnier at least post Christmas. Might help keep nature and its pests in check, who knows we might even get a frost for once down in tropical Southern England. My bets for the big day (Christmas Day) now would be for a wet out West, drier towards the East type scenario with mostly average Temperatures, always warmest towards the South and West. As for snow, only on those ole Christmas movies I reckon , Boxing Day might offer more hope for those at elevation.

D10 mean with mid latitude HP cell in your example above, yeah, but if there were a D16 mean I would strongly suggest the HP cell would be rather dominant across Scandinavia/NE Europe rather than where its been for what seems like weeks upon end. IDO, I do foresee that in a week or so's time your posts will be bringing us much joy i.e. post Christmas cheer to over 90 percent of this forum's followers, that being the cold brigade. By then, the trend alluded to by GP, Phil NW and several others will surely be our friend. No, I'm suggesting entrenched bitter cold anomalies and snow-depths of twenty feet, just something merely a wee bit more seasonal. I say, bring it on, keep a close eye on the ECM for a possible first hint at this? Happy Christmas to one and all, even if does turn out to be a mild mushy one, there could be some hilltop/mountaintop snow yet for some.

Thanks as ever GP for your insights but what the heck are "Branstrator ridges", are these more characters out of Star Wars, perhaps.

Don't know about Frosty being kidnapped but Frosts have, these past few months for sure, only two, potentially threesince something like last March. The grass and crops are growing in the farmer's fields over yonder and the pesticides and fungicides will be in full use, the downside to having a currently abnormal climate setup, being that nothing shuts down for Winter. Nevermind, these record-breaking Temps will surely be a blip and it'll soon be Christmas anyhow. Added to that, there isn't a lot anyone can do to change the way things are, except perhaps buying more local and British produced food re: the above. Oops I'm now straying way off topic once again, sorry. Back on topic, our attention and our thoughts need to be drawn towards the NW come the end of the week and with all this hot (well, unseasonably warm) air about, increased storm activity is a nigh on certainty past the weekend into Christmas week itself. Something for everyone, aside from deep cold snow-loving enthusiasts.

Not a lot of model output discussion going on in here but each to their own I guess. I'd like to suggest though, that for personal one to ones, why don't some of you kindly use a direct PM to other forum users. That way we don't fill up the thread with non-model output related discussions such as the post I'm making now.

It provided us with something similar last Thursday/Friday if I recall, hence I never place too much faith in the wobbly weekend runs (as I like to call them) and luckily I am able to view charts during the week so can scrutinise them as I see fit. I think the period through 22nd to 24th as above is a timeframe of note for a good shout at some storminess and temporary snowfalls somewhere, as I alluded to on Friday and during other times beforehand. This 12z is possibly a rogue run but as the dates under discussion are coming ever nearer it is worthy of consideration. Perhaps, after viewing tonight's full suite I might attempt a Christmas weather probabilities type posting once again and see if much has changed.

Whilst I think I understand what you're saying we also cannot overstate our personal expectations based upon these seasonal forecasts, no one individual forecast will be correct in all its details. Additionally, when looking at shorter-term projections, each model's operational run diverges from another from t+0 hours and counting, whether you are considering charts at t+96, t+240 hours or whenever. As an example, take last week's frontal band for instance (Friday/Saturday) saw differing placements and/or intensities of precipitation to that previously forecast, only the evening before. To my mind, this is precisely why those beloved models, be they seasonal or standard outputs, should be seen as simply tools or best guidance for us mere mortals. Beyond that, another skill is interpreting precisely and accurately what each NWP output is actually showing us, as in anything, things are always open to over-analysis and misunderstanding. With plenty of focus on Mother Nature within this threads in here today, I suggest she might be our guide as to what the end of December or beyond may bring us. Again, what will be, will be and things will change for better or worse before we've barely had time to contemplate it. I think there may well be a few surprises around this Winter, possibly from one extreme to the other. Enough of this near off-topic stuff from me and back to discussing said model outputs.

Hello all. Just thought I'd ask whether we are soon to enter the Summer Solstice period rather than the Winter Solstice, lovely Summer-like conditions forecast for Europe later this week, so clearly its not just US! Its also a extended dry scene across vast parts of Europe as well, so not many violent Thunderstorms, no wait I got my seasons wrong again. Soon be Christmas, things will change but if its prolonged cold you're after I'd wait until well after the special day. Certainly, a rampaging Jet bringing along with, its associated storms is looking a high probability in the run up to the 25th, with brief periods where the Jet might dive SE'wards too. Basically, brief shots of NW'rly influenced air bringing brief wintriness mainly up North is the best hope for coldies judging by current signals.I still say something's got to give, christ I heard a Blackbird in full song this morning and believe me, when it does, things will get very very interesting. I know I'm a bit premature with twelve days of Christmas business but the pipers might be piping before we know it, things can switch around very quickly indeed when it comes to our changing climate.

I was thinking the exact same thing, surely the moisture levels are going to very high indeed given Temps some ten to fifteen degrees over parts of Western Europe this coming week. It could just be that it is Southern England's turn for something of a deluge, who knows, again I hope I'm wrong but I feel the weather headlines will be all about us and those large European continent Temperature contrasts this week.

Well maybe, just maybe, the twelve Drummers have just started Drumming up some Christmas Cheer, given the more optimistic charts by D12 over recent runs. In reality though, I wouldn't even attempt to contemplate the surface conditions by then. Anything is possible obviously, not least we could see any of the following options judging by current outputs by Christmas Day itself. Atlantic in full zonal mode (albeit with the Jet trending South) - 60% probability A more benign settled pattern with potential for Frosts even down in the tropical Southern parts of the UK - 30% probability A Northerly influenced airstream/somewhat reverse zonal surface pattern with associated wintriness - 10% probability Rather a simplistic overview I know, but at this rate, I'd say the chances of Southern UK being dry with cold/near average Temps on the big day are 40% probability with a wet, mild and windy setup at 60% probability. Further North including Ireland and Scotland chances of them being dry with cold/near average Temps on the big day are 30% probability, wet, mild and windy 30% probability yet I'd suggest a snowy scene a 40% probability right now. Happy Christmas but before then note two days in your mind as these look intriguing in terms of their synoptics, the 18th December (noteworthy for its role as the peak in the warmth) and the 22nd December (for short term wintry opportunities). Hopefully that Partridge in my Pear Tree will stay out of hibernation and go back to its rightful place just in time for Christmas as by then, the weather will have surely changed for the better for those of a cold-loving and seasonal weather disposition.

No need for meat on the bones from me, I'd stated my beliefs in several posts previously. No issues with your posts either of course, as I believe in, the more information/forecasts posted up in here the better. Its just a "come in January" type comment hardly sums up the overall NH/global picture and it was mainly taht which I and several others took exception to. Keep up with your analysis and yes, providing charts against your posts is definitely the way forward for one and all where at all possible. This post from me yesterday might interest you IDO, more especially the first paragraph is precisely how I currently things out into the far reaches of FI. As for noting where FI might begin, I always use the ensembles as a guide to this and from memory, the divergence in individual member runs increases greatly from around the 17th/18th December as things currently stand. The bigger H500/troposphere/stratosphere picture is of course the key driver as to what we might get down the line, I agree.

I think I sense a need for a tutorial coming on, as I admit I'm a little bit lost when it comes to such discussions as these.

Nope, that's called wishing your life away, things might not look good for cold weather enthusiasts right now, granted. However, a pre-Christmas week switch around in fortunes is more likely than not, given past climatic trends around that date (more specifically Christmas period itself) and D6 or thereabouts is where FI currently resides anyhow.

Around the 17th December again then CC, certainly intriguing to see the ongoing confusion from that date forward. That date is consistent with its potential for a pattern change, maybe not a long-term one and potentially just a watered down one but most would take that currently I'm sure. Air Temperatures touching 60f over parts of the South or a Northerly polar influenced short wintry snap anybodies guess right now down at the surface. The trend is key, the details are much harder to tie down as ever. These types of weather headline are becoming entrenched in my mind of late, even if the cold air isn't. First hint of this game-changer here on Monday and then on Wednesday and its still there now Thanks to the GFS pub run. And all of this is simply from quoting my own posts and not those of others. I still believe summats up NH wise and it might not go the way we are currently expecting judging by the model projections. A fascinating second half of December is on the cards for sure.

Indeed, the ECM is the most likely to verify too, as denoted by those earlier stats.

I'm not a fan of any particular model, i.e. GFS over ECM and UKMO or vice versa as I try to look at an amalgamation of all outputs as to what I believe is likely to verify at a given timescale. The general cross-model consensus currently seems to favour some extremes in Temperature and increasing storm activity across many parts of the globe right now, with some big climatic upheavals when compared to normal (El Nino's final fling perhaps?). Deep depressions across the Pacific, more storminess in the run up to Christmas week for us too. A bitter cold blast across Central and Eastern Europe beforehand, currently, some UK snow from Northern England Northwards and into the weekend. Potential for deep cold in the US too. All in all, my consensus is that I won't be trusting anything beyond D6 and that our much-hyped (by me at least) pattern change is simply delayed and has simply dodged our shores for the time being. The second half of December and the rest of Winter itself will continue to make the news headlines for all the right and wrong reasons, in my opinion, you have been warned. I'd suggest we place our trust in no one particular model, but should place our trust in Mother Nature. Its as if, the weather models know that there is a climate summit going on Paris and that a deal is imminent.

For Chris or anyone else viewing this, the above is a prime example of when a direct mail/personal mail is more suitable, as this is the MODEL OUTPUT DISCUSSION thread, please take note all. I've gone close to the wire myself today so I'm no saint either, I know. Eyes down then for the most reliable model outputs and its ensembles, just what will it dish up tonight for us in the UK and our continental friends, we will find out soon enough.

I'll give you that one, maybe January though. I'll be watching Central and Eastern Europe's developments closely these coming weeks.

It's certainly not in its rightful place and time in the seasonal calendar, I think might I go looking and listening for those Cuckoos soon at this rate, nevermind the Daffodils. Verification chances aren't even that high or low given its only a six day chart so anything's possible, it might come off as shown who knows? I am however hopefully jesting about seeing our migrant African birds being back in the country by this time next week.

I'd say Mother Nature often is the bigger player in our globe's atmosphere, i.e. something beyond our control although humanity is inflicting greater changes per se. If there wasn't some sort of balance in place out there we and our wildlife and other living things would cease to exit I'd suspect. However, with all the recent extreme events witnessed in may recent years, the Natural World is fighting against an ever warmer world which makes that balance ever more precarious as the years tick by. As I'm another poster whose causing this thread to drift ever further off-topic I best stop right now. As for the current very mild outlook, that'll change to something more akin to average overall I suspect over the next couple of runs. I believe the weather headlines in future weeks could have an European bias to them, as eventually, I firmly believe something's got to give with regards to approaching entrenched cold and snowfalls over there.

Well the ECM 12z runs continue to be fascinating NH wise of late, in a similar fashion to this post from the other day in fact. On the above I stated, that we should be looking at what is forecast to go on across the nearby continent, well changes are a-foot over there for sure but they are just NOT in our favour yet. Again this maybe only one run in isolation but there are two features I want to highlight to you which are bringing about much of the model suite confusion in my opinion. Firstly look at this very late in the season tropical depression development over in the Pacific as early as D3 (my much lauded 12th December). Notice how deep in terms of mb it is modelled to be and also where the feature wants to track to, this in turn has three potential impacts for us beyond the reliable timeframe, ramifications of which could possibly make or break our overall impression December as a whole. changes in NH Jet positioning and ferocity come Mid-December Prevents the development of Northern Blocking, at least over the poles potential for a displaced Polar Vortex FWIW I have far from given up hope yet from a cold-loving perspective and I've always been a half-glass full type of chap anyhow. Moving on, below are the ECM charts showing said feature (encircled in Magenta) through 12th December to 14th December timeframes (D3-D5) The knock-on effect this has downstream/upstream on Central to Eastern parts of Europe from t+120 (D5) through to t+192 (D8) hours is quite dramatic. Just imagine the kinds of Air Temperatures (20c or more below average at the extreme end) some lucky folk might be receiving in those parts. The European Arctic blast highlighted in encircled Blue area, whilst we are forecast to sit within the milder Magenta encircled region. Having said that it'll only be a temporary blip in the overall scheme of things it seems before milder air once again rushes in. Whilst, I guess the same can be said of the Northern UK weekend's snow potential. A heck of a lot going on in the weather world right now and I suspect more NWP output melodramas will be incoming yet before we are able to reach general consensus for the weather over our little tiny island.

Ok cheers, Thanks for that, intriguingly this is pretty much where FI begins, to my mind, as can be seen by the divergence in the ensembles member clusters. We also have a split Jet out in the Atlantic during those timeframes too, which is usually helpful. Beyond these troublesome wave depressions who knows what might occur. I wouldn't bank on any chart being correct beyond the early part of next week right now, so in that fact alone, there is still hope for some watered-down kind of pattern change in my opinion into the middle of next week.

Sounds like the script of the Star Wars film to me Nick, especially as I think I need one of your diagrams to understand the point of your post. Either way, the gist is for us coldies to forget cold Winter synoptics for a while.

Alternatively, we could have a more benign Winter like last year with just a touch of snow here and there, I'd take that now. Currently, it feels like a re-run of 2013/14 Winter wants take a grip of us whilst effecting differing parts of the UK this time around. At least, some hope of longer lasting drier periods as well, which didn't occur for weeks upon end back in 2013/14.