gottolovethisweather

March 2013 saw twenty foot blizzards in parts and that Spring took an age to hit even respectable Temperatures, frosts occurring in almost June back then. So no, I don't buy that analogy but fair enough if you believe in such things. Every year is different though and who knows what might happen yet.

In the reliable, it is a case of depression, brief ridge, depression, brief ridge and so on and so on. After the usual weekend wobbles in the models, according to the GFS 12z some transient back-edge snow opportunities might yet turn up even for parts of lowland England in the coming fortnight. Early hours of the 3rd February could boast a wintry surprise for a small minority of us, plus I'd put a brief watch on things around the 8th and 9th February as well. Deep entrenched prolonged cold still not in sight but mid-February can and often does deliver even down south at times, despite these globally warmer times. I remain convinced that February will deliver what coldies want for more of the population than the rest of Winter has so far. Keep an eye on those Euro heights and Arctic heights, one of which we want to see dissipate the other we want to see build to unimaginable heights. An intriguing week of model watching coming up!

Mind you Nick, even in generally tropical feeling Central Southern England this winter, I had an ice day on the 19th and went damn close again on the 20th January. I did see some transient snowflakes too so something to cherish amongst the dreary stuff. More importantly, moving onto my thoughts for the future. I have always been relatively optimistic that February will deliver some cold and snowfalls for a greater part of the UK and who knows perhaps for SW France too. Even last weekend, my mind was set upon the first few days of February becoming the start of a new period of unsettled wintry weather for increasingly longer periods, broadly atypical of NW'ly airflows. Granted, no deep cold in sight for the reliable but this remains a reasonable option longer-term providing a deep freeze hits the nearby continent and that darn Euro High dissipates. So, to sum things up, a NW/SE split with regards to wintry precipitation chances for the forseeable but with the odd few surprises along the way. Some oddities this weekend for a starter with thunder, lightning, hail, gales, sleet and snow and even a bit of frost thrown in. Nice to know, the UK weather isn't too boring for long.

Some four days on and I'm still keeping the faith for coldies, based upon what I've heard via the BBC forecasts and through one or two of our long-term forum users in here. The main reasoning behind my confidence in the above aspect at the time was what I was seeing within the GEFS and ECM ensemble spreads at around D8 to D10 and that was a trend to colder 850s. More information is often gleaned from the ensemble spreads than by simply chasing around looking at individual operational runs in my opinion and trying to base an opinion on that. So, a continuation of a well-known atlantic based theme as we enter February yes, but one with increasing shots of polar air at times. No long-term embedded harsh cold prospects around until roughly mid-February (again also picked up by the BBC) which is hardly surprising given the state of the weather conditions over most of continental Europe, where it is equally snowless. A few reasons to be cheerful as far I can tell but for settling snow in the South we might need a bit more lady luck just yet.

90-95% of folk in here would no doubt prefer seasonal weather and to my mind, that is where most forum user's interests lie. There is no secret agenda and those well established forum posters will post outlooks simply how they see them and quite rightly so. Currently, its ultimately widespread wet, mild and windy for all in the reliable. Back to more on-topic posts we go please............

What like the weather? As for forecasts at t+42,000 minutes from now, that pig flying past my window might just be right, yes the winds are bitter out East but are they heading our way.................................... To be continued. ECM is rolling, will it bring us some good news, some signs of cold and dry weather would be more than welcome for now if you ask me given this week's dreary and damp outlook.

Fair enough but even then I'm speaking of FI when considering things from beyond 1st February as that is eight days away even now.

Ah but I think a disrupted and/or split Jetstream, irrespective of its strength can also be regarded as a bonus, so eyes down for that particular aspect too should it start showing up in the near-time to mid-range outputs. Granted this wouldn't bring about the holy grail such as an Easterly, but Easterlies are more common around this time of year and right into early Spring, so although none are currently modelled, they can and do still regularly happen from this point forward. As Nick Sussex and a few others often state, look upstream firstly for changes in the Atlantic pattern and then hope things fall just right for us a few days later. A warm start to the forthcoming working week and then a cool down to nearer average more seasonal Temperatures come the middle to end of the week. The period from the start of February is where my interest lies right now, watch this space!

Yeah that surface feature coming out of the Americas on tonight's ECM t+96 - 23rd January chart (cue Nick Sussex paintjob) is riding along the Northern arm of the Jet appears to move the Azores High towards us over South and Western parts of Europe. Will have to see how this is modelled over subsequent runs as yesterday the BBC 10-dayer suggested the Scandi/Northern Europe Block might yet hold firm into next week and make a comeback. Time will tell. All in all, I am but talking of one operational run in isolation here and am not necessarily looking at the bigger NH picture here which is of course, a dangerous thing to do. No more from me on the ECM having looked at the rest of the run now.

Yep, if we can't have snow then I'm more than happy with frosty nights and sunshine by day. And of course, those rare ICE days like today.

Added to that, I went sixteen days of January on top of another thirty-one in December before I even saw an Air Frost this Winter. More about that here. Than some three days on, I'm getting a sub-zero maximum (i.e. defined as an ICE day) day. Weird weather, at this rate we'll probably get hail, gales, fog, thunder, freezing rain, sleet and snow before the months' out, down in our normally tropical air influenced CSE &SW England region. Well I can live in hope.

As I've stated in my status update.... High hopes of an ICE day in Newbury, -1.1c as I type this. Don't get many of them, these days, so most pleasing.

Sadly this doesn't appear to have been far off the mark then some three days on, especially so given the general air of excitement about the place that evening which I broadly wasn't understanding at the time. Tis easy to get lost in the hype sometimes in here, take note if you struggle to read the many different chart types or a complete novice at this forecasting game. Back to the here and now, it does seem the milder incursion of a breakdown will pollute all parts by Friday now. By my reckoning that still made this a ten day cold spell, broadly speaking. Before then, some cold days and cold to very cold nights for a lot of the UK when overnight conditions allow. The dry signal is most welcome as is the abundant sunshine which will hopefully come with it. The longer-term prospects I haven't been contemplating, so I will stick with the trusted few in here and hope that us coldies who did miss out on the snow will get another shot at it before too long. The milder blip has incidentally been well modelled by the strat guys and by those well versed in the MJO etc from a good few days back now. If we can believe them and trust in them, our next shot at cold won't be too many days and weeks away. I reported a snow day (flakes seen falling but didn't settle) on Saturday so can't complain too much when you think where we were, barely a fortnight ago.

Indeed within 24 hours of the event, I and a great many others will and should be revisiting that thread. Thanks for the reminder John.

Nice link.

Ah, yours and Crewe Cold's post which I missed from earlier, in part answers my question above. Thank you. I still say it looks damn borderline and the further East and with elevation on your side you are, the better your chances come the Monday event. Anyway, enough of all that, on with the pub runs before long.

Yeah I know, SaffW which is why when I looked at -7 850s being forecast at the most extreme end and no more than -5 ahead of the approaching breakdown on Monday, I couldn't understand why expectations were so high, especially from some of our more respected posters. A genuine question and one which when answered I hope will keep the majority in here on the right side of their own expectations.

Anybody got any ideas? This might aid the newbies in their search for snow too, or any other weather which might yet develop next week. It just seems we're all clinging onto the 850s right now, if they were high single-digits or double-digits then I'd be all up for a snowfest, perhaps I'm missing something here. Anyway tis still three days ahead of us yet.

Indeed the forecast 850s aren't astonishing in truth though. Bar the weekend when parts of the East of England will feel genuinely bitter with Maximum Temperatures around of only 2c or so, especially on Saturday. The main story other than a dying front moving through will be the dry frosty crisp picture, overnight minimums of -10 or lower in some parts. Come Monday the warming uppers (relatively speaking) very very slowly transfer their way Eastwards to all parts come Thursday. During Monday the only snow-producing 850s left are out towards the North and East of the UK. However, I ask this of you Mucka and perhaps one or two of the more experienced posters in here, am I painting a realistic picture here? The 850s aren't everything, they are simply one of eight suggested requirements needed to guarantee snowfall yet, there is so much hope and excitement at this prospect (which is still 60-72 hours away) which is why I'm not following the hype just yet. Taking the ECM control literally (not a wise thing to do in isolation btw) the -6 850s have vanished from the UK which suggests rain by then but again, am I likely to be correct in my analysis? I am NOT being deliberately unrealistic or realistic here, yet it looks such a difficult forecast ahead, I'd still suggest a slow demise of the cold by mid-week is the main certainty in all of this. Should the snow fall and more appropriately settle during the early part of the week, what with stalling fronts and all that, I guess the inevitable Atlantic breakdown will be a slow-burner itself, a week NOT to be a media forecaster.

Yesterday's BBC 10 day forecast showed the breakdown affecting parts West of the UK no earlier than before next Wednesday. That makes this a 8 to 9 day cold spell at least by then. The only downside the proper snow-making 850s for lowland snow down over Southern and Central England weren't drawn upon which suggests we could do with lower 850s being forecast over coming runs. I'm picking holes with the latter but I also don't want to raise the roof off in here suggesting otherwise about snow potential. Right now its not so great in that aspect but the longer it stays cold the better.

Imagine predicting those Temps for anywhere at the start of January when we could see nowt in the outputs. As I've said before a week to ten days is a long time in Meteorology. Hence why I often play the game of "get the cold in, the snow should/will come sometime thereafter". With a wintry mix and snow probabilities being mentioned for parts of lowland UK (mainly the hillier locations currently favoured) within t+48 to t+60 hours and again at around about t+120 to t+132 hours, I for one won't be looking for the BREAKDOWN just yet. Obviously the Atlantic will win out eventually but I'm more intrigued by the entrenched cold and frosts before any of all that rubbish. This is a nailed on seven day cold spell at least, right now.

Ok I think I get it, its just these differing descriptions being offered up for the same things again, different people use different wording which confuses me in my old age of 43 years young. Basically, I take it we want it dive as far SE into Europe as possible which then allows for the Ridge to move North and block the Atlantic? Anyway, I guess we need to move on. I think the good Captain (Shortwave) refers to it too in his post if I'm not mistaken describing it as a "low pressure cutting in underneath the remaining heights". ECM is trickling out so better go take a looksie.

Not sure where my question went, deleted somehow, anyway I'll ask again. Are we referring to the same surface feature/low out in the Mid Atlantic then due West of Ireland on the chart dated the 16th which similar dissipates due SW of the British Isles come the 17th in your examples above?

At what timeframe is this so-called undercut mucka, where should my eyes be drawn to it on the charts?

I'm starting to believe that might well end up the case too re: the maritime flow next week. However, nothing to despondent about for the cold-loving fraternity, chins up, the above scenario still leaves us with another six to seven days of cold days and very cold nights to come. The transition back to Atlantic driven is a better (or worse) bet in the long run than the likelihood of a short-lived Easterly would ever be. Besides, there is a certain degree of inevitability about our weather, is there not? We've done well to have pulled this spell out of the fire given where we were a week ago and a week is a long time in UK weather so knows what the future holds but I'm still very hopeful about January and the end of this week in particular.