gottolovethisweather

Oh yes, I agree. I've been watching things regularly myself. I've referred it in my posts from previously, pretty much because you've also shown charts with the WAA around and about in the mid-range. I just didn't want the less well initiated in here thinking we were going to be in the middle of a heatwave before the cold had even descended. Out of interest, Knocker, where do you think the start of FI sits right now, (would you suggest somewhere around D5) ?

Note the dates, guys n gals. A five-day cool spell (with a fair amount of wintry precipitation around) all beforehand and most probably the start of another colder interlude afterwards, as hinted at by the 2nd chart above. I must admit the first chart covering the period 22nd to the 27th has the warmth (for coldies like me) a bit too close by for my liking. Nonetheless, can't paint the outlook in any other colour for now than with a blue hue. Interesting times and potentially frustrating times ahead to boot. My current of 0.9c below average Temperatures will only continue on a downward curve if you ask me. The ECM op currently keeps things as they were forecast to be (17th through to 21st) for a good week or so now, which is a cool to cold spell for the first five days at least, as if to confirm my assessment above. The latter stages to the run will be intriguing but as others have stated, past D5 the surface details, yet alone the bigger synoptical picture is one that's still baffling, even the pros.

One thing to bear in mind, while our eyes are firmly fixed on future offerings, first thing tomorrow morning looks prime for a few wet snowflakes on the wind., even down in parts of the South, especially at elevation. Plenty of hill snow opportunities after that as mentioned up above. Marginal, transient and hill snow are words which we'll all hear a lot more of in the coming days, especially from the Midlands northwards.

I don't get it either, Pete, telling it like it is, doesn't seem to work anymore. See below. It appears people only believe the unbelievable to the point that the believable gets ignored in the outputs. Day one of the cool to cold spell incoming tomorrow, enjoy!

Day one of this second colder than average spell this November starts tomorrow for everyone with widespread wintry type showers around. Should the ECM 12z op be believed, there aren't many mild days around to be had either for the next ten days. Marginal and snow at elevation are buzz words you'll need to get used to hearing in the coming days. Enjoy the fun guys n gals; some will certainly strike it lucky with temporary accumulations of the white stuff! A bit of a proper autumnal mix for most methinks.

Even at D4 we all know it can still go TITS up, so that's why I reckon.

Glad, you're thinking what I'm thinking, well matching up to my thoughts at least. Post Sunday everyone. Don't go looking into things in too much detail at ALL is all I'll say. WAA either side of the trough and will be in the middle or will we be under the influence of the WAA thereafter, we simply DO NOT KNOW the answer yet, sadly, although it's all part of the fun of chase. Gut feeling tells me my special November prediction could yet come off.

Not Frosty's post I'm attempting to reply too but MP-R's here. Not sure, all I know it ended up a cold end to November according to my Davis data but with variable winds, a couple of frosts to finish the month. We all know which recent November proved to be the holy grail for coldies, so something even close to that would be warmly coldly appreciated by most, lol.

Argggh, editing post problems. I'm trying to respond to young William's post up thread in as much to say, what happens after Sunday's troublesome low could yet dictate (well, give us several clues at least) as to how cold the rest of November might yet become. A deep undercutting feature diving quickly diving SE'wards in towards France and Germany may provide the perfect trigger for a colder spell of N'rlies and NE'rlies as projected by some of the output. Equally, the WAA advection either side of the trough might not position itself favourably for the UK, and instead, we'll sit in warmer than desired (by me anyhow) airflow. We will know more by the end of the week and into the weekend as to which side of the polar influenced airstream the UK sits. For sure, someone's going to get a fair dumping of snow before the end of November.

Bookmarked. Thanks, SylvainTV.

The ECM op suggests we'll get to the 21st/22nd before warming up ( milding out). I think that looking for the end of a cool to cold spell before it's even started (despite what the GEM model and Summer Sun's analysis might suggest) is well, add in the blanks........ Granted, it is valid to model output discussion, but it is kind of like peeing on someone's chips before they've bought them. 17th through to the 20th/21st November is going to be a cold dominated spell, how cold (i.e. cold enough for the holy grail ice crystals IMBY or your own) we'll have to see. I'm looking forward to cold spell number two, whatever. EDIT: Singularity's recent post suggests this probability too (an extension to the current 3/4 day cooler interlude). The weekend is set to get VERY intriguing and a forecasting headache for the pros I reckon. Beyond the weekend, all solutions are up for grabs.

It looks likely that most of us will get a 4-5 cold spell at worst out of this second colder than average incursion then, going by them. By the 21st November, anything could develop beyond that too for coldies, the cooler spell (wintriness about for best part of the UK on one day at least) might be over by then or might yet extend further into deep FI. With round three possible due before November is out. Exciting times ahead, whatever!

Lend me your time machine and I'll let you know, lol. You may well be right but you may well be wrong, I'll give you a 50/50.

Indeed I do. Which timeframe are we talking about? D5 , D6 etc.

Time for a Nick S doodling speciality?

As I've said before, ten days is a long time in Meteorology but who knows, by the 23rd of November in 2016, we could be on the seventh day of the upcoming cold spell. Incidentally, before then, the uninitiated might be wondering what all the fuss is about? With the next couple of days seeing Maximum Temperatures nudging the low 60s Fahrenheit in parts and the odd night with minimums no lower than the mid-50s. After that, forget the warmth for a wee while.

That is a fair point, the 17th through to the 20th November looks highly likely to be a cooler spell of showery precipitation, often cold enough for snow on high ground, alongside some drier interludes, Temperatures well below normal up North and just below average further South. The specifics aren't worth worrying about right now, as the 850s could end up favourably for more of the UK population at large nearer the time. As the Captain states up thread, I think a drier spell with bright sunshine and hard frosts might be the new trending scenario beyond D10 into the end of the month.

Conversely, we could have 14 or 15c with SW'rly gales so I'll take cold or at least below average conditions each and every time. Yes, often such conditions are deemed as imperfect (who wants cold rain) but when is the weather perfect for all? I like as much variety as the next man or woman but so often our weather gets stuck in a zonal train (winter 13/14) with fleeting glimpses of cold, this time around the dice are slowly loading towards favouring those who like it cold.

Yep, GFS and UKMO on board, now the ECM?

Thanks bluearmy, what timeframe are we talking about here?

The UKMO t+144 indicated the 528DAM line (wintry precipitation maker if in existence) was as far South as almost the French coast by midday next Saturday, let's see if tonight's ECM follow suit? I'd be more interested if said evolution is still there by Monday/Tuesday, but whatever, the trend is our friend!

Better to have NWr'ly flow than a broader W/SWr'ly flow which is rather more than norm for November and sadly, for most winters in recent years. Any flow from a Northerly quadrant is welcomed by me because it usually brings colder than average air, frosts by night and clear gin skies in between, a perfect winter scene, at least to my mind. The added bonus is that a NW'rly doesn't take much nudging to become a colder N'rly or NE'r'y given the increased chances of an undercutting low. For instance, from this at t+240 hrs three days to this from the overnight run at t+168 hrs. All the best, a colder spell is clearly on its way. Incidentally, these charts for next Saturday (should they come off to be relatively accurate) by then, we will already be into the third day of the colder spell. The details from Thursday 17th November onwards is where it's at, for coldies. gottolovethisweather