gottolovethisweather

Cheers bobbydog, I'm just lazy yet I guess many others do wonder like I do, thanks for confirming that.

Hi Mucka, which location is that graph supposed to reflect?

Yes, I can see the irony Yet the experts can have all the supercomputing power in the world and even they, don't always see what's just around the corner, ten days it seems was a long time in Meteorology, especially when looking back at 2010. I will continue to go on my gut instinct and the hints through the Natural World and via my matching analogues. I do hope you get stocked up on the necessities for life in what might become a cold snowy winter and things sort themselves out sooner or later for your home. All the best gottolovethisweather

The next time is clearly that memorable winter of 2016/17. I can dream, can't I? For anybody else, worrying over the specifics, I'd suggest you don't. Questions remain over the precise details of how cold the 850s are, will we get an Easterly flow, is the continent cold enough, will the Russian Block push far enough East. Don't concern yourselves, look the global NH picture which indicates trending scenarios of a mid-Atlantic block, an NW-SE tilting jet, increasing amplification, a lessening of any SW'rly wind flow predictions in mid-range. At this range the intra-run trends 12z to 12z and 0z to 0z of the NWP outputs at the timescales of D4 to D10 are those we need to concentrate on, in order to determine whether this spell might last more than just a couple to three days, I think it will. As I stated yesterday predicting the weather some ten days ahead in late November 2010 made a fool of us, so trying to second guess things this time around, will likely do the same. Patience, Grasshopper! A colder spell is on its way, will it bring snow and ice before autumn is even finished with, watch this space!

I think it'll be at least a three-day spell as things stand and being as by then it'd be the 20th November (darkest FI after that, basically unforecastable), I do not see any reason to be getting worried about the return of Southwesterlies for instance. Bring it on! I won't be up to much NWP output watching this weekend as they'll probably be all over the place as per usual.

Yes, the 17th November once again showing up as the key timeframe for start of another nationwide chilly interlude, perhaps? The 528DAM line is as far south as the North Midlands by then as well.

Yep, echoed my thoughts as well, I was ahead of myself on last night's post as it is tomorrow's UKMO t+144 which is what I want to see but it's today's D7 (17th) on the ECM which will be equally important., Slowly does it, bound to get some backwards steps again soon but the overall picture for the 2nd half of November is setting up nicely for coldies if you ask me.

I had to chek the date twice on that chart, lol. I thought it was 2010. When the UKMO Met Office blog updates went from this on the 19th November. Rain, rain and more moisture-laden Southwesterlies than you could shake a stick at! To this, just over a week later. Why is it so flippin' cold, it's the weather, extremely cold weather at that! As we all know, as they say, the rest is history.

Thankyou GFS 6z, the 17th onwards is where's it at once again.

And the ECM 0z continues to back up my observations from last night's post too. The 17th to the 19th November is my watch period! as it is with a few other netweather members in here. We just need some consistency in the coming days of how the NW'rly is handled and whether the winds do indeed back around to the North/Northeast as I've been hinting at for a few days now. The ECM 12z and the last frame of today's UKMO run should be telling. Here's hoping the good news continues for coldies, although we are a good few days away yet from said timeframes becoming a reality!

Kind of what tonight's ECM operational run is suggesting. D8 through D10 H500 NH Profiles D8 through D10 850 NH Profiles Yes, it's in the realms of early FI being the 17th November onwards, but the same signals were broadly there yesterday evening too, and I feel it is one to watch. Revisit this post in three to five days time, and if they're still there I'd be relatively hopeful of a quick switch around from the very mild forecasted Temperatures to start next week. Even if they're dropped in subsequent runs don't panic as the 12z by 12z and/or 0z by 0z is the more relevant trend to watch!

Yep, I'm confident it will trend colder from the 16/17th November (as the above indicates) with the NW flow, hopefully backing around to a polar source as we head further into FI. Before that, coldies such as myself will have to deal with a few milder days, some potentially wet but still seasonal frosts about from time to time too. Kind of what I stated last evening.

And a well below average November, prior to that, with bouts of wintriness for a fair few of us. Well, so says Gottolovethisweather. Personally, I hope the dry if not briefly warmer signal currently modelled for mid-term remains until D9/D10 (cue tonight's ECM) as that should assist in bringing colder air to the surface more readily thereafter. We don't want soggy mild ground conditions to ruin any impending colder spells down the line into the second half of November and beyond.

Indeed. Absolutely bang on. The UKMO are suggesting a colder than normal start to winter I believe and as you say, with snow falling as we slip only into week two of November, I think things are most favourable for a colder period upcoming along with the odd milder day or two thrown in, especially darn south. My gut had an irregular feeling about this November as early as way back on the 24th October. Note my words "I think November will bring some quite widespread cold and wintry Synoptics to all", best wait and see before agreeing with all that of course. It's going to a special few weeks prior to Christmas for sure and I feel some will get a lot of snow.

Indeed. Just stated that myself. Should be interesting. Best move back to broader model output discussion (although, I'm not helping things) I assume there is a wintry potential thread somewhere on here. Also, can somebody direct me to the winter forecasts thread by DM me.

Hi AJ, It'll be down to the wire and a nowcast for some, no doubt. FWIW, BBC forecast earlier stated East Midlands as a likely place for some of the white stuff. Pennines and NE the only other areas in England being worthy of mention. Nonetheless, it's only the 8th of November so it'll be a pleasant surprise for many NOT expecting winter autumn to bite just yet.

In fact, despite it only being November, lowland snow is possible for a brief time on Tuesday according to latest BBC forecasts, currently favouring the North and NE, but a definite case of watch this space! This is precisely why I never stress over how developments might pan out into mid-term or beyond (right now expectations past D4 are said to be FI) , enjoy the next few days, today through Tuesday guys n gals, if you're into the colder synoptics.

Like you, I have the same feeling about November rather than Winter as a whole, easier to predict I guess. Whether these early Easterlies should be called a waste of space or not, I welcome them over the usual Southwesterly onslaught. By tomorrow morning, and throughout the weekend they (Northerly/Northeasterly winds) are bringing wintriness with them and raw feeling Temperatures to the Eastern counties in particular. I do feel the predominance of Northerly and Easterly based winds will continue to be a feature during November as they were throughout October. Hence my predictions of a special November upcoming. Granted, we get milder outputs showing their hand from time to time as we should do but come next week, the weekend wobbles in the outputs will restore back to colder scenarios mid-term once again. Bring it on, I say.

If the inevitable breakdown comes mid-week as hinted at by the overnight runs. Judging by your GEFS spreads, the forthcoming spell of below average Temperatures are nailed on to stay with us through D2 (6th November) to broadly speaking D6 (10th November). During this timeframe, we will see quite a few places getting an early dose of wintry precipitation (moreover rain at lower levels down near my neck of the woods). I imagine this is just the first batch of polar interludes with several more to come. So in all, not a bad first ten days of November with the CET mean held at suppressed levels when compared to the norm. Whilst I've not got a lot of time to check over the outputs, I will follow your wise summaries as ever Phil and also those of several others on here who've been around since the inception of netweather. I'm pretty sure this afternoon's ECM and UKMO will differ quite markedly to those overnight runs as well, with the mild/cold battle ensuing that bit longer, perhaps?

Time will tell. I'm still sticking to my guns as per my recent status update. Yes. the road ahead will have its ups and downs like any other winter (mind you, I keep forgetting we're still in bleeding November too), enjoy the ride!

Well I be burgered. Sounds good news for coldies.

A polar (pardon the pun) opposite to what we've seen in recent winters too. WIth us, consistently mild, wet and stormy and Northern US and Canada under the snow-fields. Must surely be a relevant part of the overall hemispheric picture when looking for something akin to some of the famous winters of the past. It's simply a case of being patient and watching where the coldest of the cold dice land, Northwestern Europe (i.e. our part of the world) or elsewhere? Further East or over in the good ole US for instance.

Can we hold you to that then, Pete? This is no bog-standard November upcoming. I have to be careful of putting the horse before the cart but I might well start stocking up with extra hay for it soon. Early wintry scenes about this coming weekend, a most festive scene for Christmas Bonfire Night. Some hail and sleet in them there showers for a few prone locations and briefly settling up at the highest elevations. Brrrr..........................

While we're all chasing around attempting to decide which model is right with its timing as to when the inevitable Westerly breakdown comes (at least to most extremities of the UK), it is worth everyone NOT taking their eye off the prospective forecast conditions beforehand. As predicted for a while now, Saturday through Monday, maybe Tuesday will be the chilliest spell with wintry type showers (including hail and perhaps thunder) penetrating quite a way inland as far south as Southern and Eastern counties. In fact, some BBC forecasters have suggested it will feel raw in the wind, no bad for the first week of November.

That chart could easily be atypical of a February 7th chart, nevermind a November 7th chart. Winter's coming early to a whole host of countries over in Europe, will it spread its cold-loving hands over our little island as well, is the big big question. I think it will, especially given the propensity for Northerly based winds over Westerlies and those continual progressively colder dry blocking air masses around nearby as Glacier Point also alluded to.