gottolovethisweather

Yep, a trend that the outputs have broadly stuck to over the past few runs. This is our best window of opportunity for wintriness and I feel it will be nightmare forecast for those trying to work gets the rain, sleet or snow mixture. A messy, transient picture perhaps but I'd take it, bring it on.

Indeed, credit where credit due and his latest post was more informative as stated. Must move discussion on now.

Thanks IDO, that is a much more reasoned post and most welcome. If you're optimistic now I'm certainly glad to see it.

I think there are many better ways to start a post off and as you are an experienced poster, I'm tempted to say WTF. Two points, broadly speaking next week starts with unsettled spells of rain and sleet, limited snowfall around with average to cold Tempertures over most parts of the UK. As the week progresses the wintry risk spreads South, to my mind the end of the working week is most interesting with potential for snow almost anywhere before the High is shown to move in towards the beginning of the forthcoming week. This analysis are also my thoughts of the GFS 12z but it does certainly indicate the growing problems the inexperienced model readers will face when we have such differences in interpretation. So to finish. Do I believe the end of the cold to very cold spell is in sight, NO! Do I believe and trust the GFS from beyond D8 over all other known outputs, NO! (might need a rethink on the wording here, lol) The torpedo is priming up I say and this first spell is a potential precursor to something much better longer-term. Am I overegging things, for others to judge but it's well known I like appropriate weather conditions in their rightful seasons. One thing I'd never do is start a post with a bombshell of a sentence writing off the next 21 days . Besides, I seem to recall such words as once retired old one-liners anyhow and surely we have all learned from past mistakes by now. Roll on tonight's ECM in the hope of us seeing the end of all such knee-jerk reactions to rogue operational runs.

Yes, by way of longevity it is looking nailed for seven days at least and I anticipate a much longer spell of cold weather. Initially a wintry mix is a good description of what we can expect but eventually deeper cold will filter through as well. I'm just cherishing the thought of it being perishing and wishing for some drifting of snow in bitter winds in the days ahead. Banbury provides some sound advice there too. Eyes down then.

Before a plethora of comments about the 12zs arrive and further to some recent postings by one or two of our more experienced members, I can't help but reminisce on the above as it seems to correspond with their current thinking. The reality of this dream scenario will be proven over the coming days of course but I can't help but feel we could be on the cusp of something special. I don't want to get into the specifics of when and how much snow falls and precisely where, as this will chop and change. However, I do advise folk to keep watching as the daily details will change and I suggest that they follow the relevant threads. Intriguing times ahead and overall this is a very encouraging read for coldies from weatheronline as well.

I can see an angel somewhere, even though we're not there yet I always believed this cold spell would have some legs but it also appears to have wings. Soon be time to discuss the specifics of will it, won't it snow in my back yard but certainly not quite yet folks. Right now, a wintry mix is a good description for sure for most of Lowland England but my gut feeling is that the -6c isotherm/850s will visit more times during January and February than most would have ever imagined, just a week ago. Just goes to show, do not write anything off anyone not even angels looking down us from above in our weather charts.

Yeah, the latter one is the one I think I am still seeing on Karlos's chart. Whatever, its vastly removed from the 12z and proves to me we need to sort t96 firstly before worrying about t168hrs. Heck, there could be a widespread covering of snow UK wide before then. Next seven days nailed broadly speaking though and that is a cold to colder trend past Monday for all.

Was it your shortwave which I saw riding over the top of the mid Atlantic ridge heading towards Iceland Nick, as that would indicate a different Jetstream profile at D6/D7 which is to be expected I guess. This now being one which favours prolonging the cold. What I'm looking at is on the chart on this post by Karlos.

Another to pin somewhere? Nice one Mapantz.

Amazing to think that the science of Meteorology could be so complex, er. not really as the more we attempt to take in, the more the weather as part of Mother Nature will treat us as fools. Now time for all these snow charts to start trickling into t24 to t48 hour timeframes. Thanks JH as ever.

Worth pinning this post IMO, check with Paul if okay to do so, will no doubt help many folk out.

Thanks, so most of our concerns over shortwaves and phasing are within D6 to D8 timescale then. If that is the case, I'm happy to wait and see how the outputs handle those dates over corresponding outputs. I will however keep an eye on developments across the ocean by the 15th January or thereabouts during forthcoming NWP outputs. BTW I cannot see it phasing at t+168 as to my mind, it is either still there to the West of the North Atlantic Ridge or has dissipated altogether, whatever, nothing wrong with a bit of difference in opinion. Thankyou kindly Nick, cheers gottolovethisweather

Nick, if you have a chance could you do one of your famous circled paint jobbie charts on this. So much talk of phasing, shortwaves, upstream and downstream by so many posters that I can't even remember what I'm supposed to be looking for in the charts. Thankyou kindly. This will also greatly assist others as well I'm sure. What timescales are we talking about here too?

At D5 don't even think about where, when, how much etc. FI probably starts about then given the struggle for cross-model consensus. If I can have some snow in Berkshire, I'm more than happy to let you have some in Staffordshire. More generally spekaing now, I don't often trust these wobbly weekend NWP outputs out into FI and beyond. Also, I hardly ever comment half way through an individual operational run but so far, this looks a good ECM 12z for coldies.

Which was good or bad for coldies? I seem to recall it was a reasonable run but not as good as say two to three days ago.

Sorry BT, only read the first bit so far, pointless and snow doesn't go together in any way, shape or form, I'm desperate. I'll now read on.....

No shame in that, we all are. Take a global view firstly, especially in terms of mid to long range predictions, then contemplate only the shorter-term timeframes in terms of specifics, i.e whether the accuracy of forecast events will come off as expected. When it comes to snow, our little island needs everything, and I mean everything to be spot on to get that particular precipitation type, especially so should one live near the coast or darn Sarf, as I indeed do.

Leading edge wintriness certainly possible though, IF the timing of frontal bands and snow making parameters fall right for folk down South. On the whole, things are well delayed on the GFS but seemingly we all get the cold we deserve in the end if only for a few days.

ARRRRGGGGGHHHHH. Now that's what I call a one liner. Mind you, it was quite informative as to how I feel and us moderators obviously aren't likely to see a quiet Friday night in here then. Remember this - AJ's post here not good enough for some. One tip: direct mail is there for a reason and is a far better option for one to one discussions rather than clutter up the MODEL OUTPUT DISCUSSION thread. *clue is in title*

I'm not stressed over the whole next ten days if I'm honest once we get the weekend troughing to do one. Moreover, I think the increasing signal of a drier phase to arrive eventually will please most folk up North as well. Whatever happens, we can't do nowt about it and what will be, will be. This Winter is now taking us down an interesting path though, let's say that.

Only disappointing if at D10 (way out in FI) this becomes a reality for coldies. Meanwhile D4, next Tuesday through to D9, a week Sunday will be a period of varying degrees of below average Temperatures (current thinking 3c to 6c below normal nationwide) and some wintry interludes across a broad swathe of the UK.

And what would this likely result in down the line IDO, serious question? I'm talking about mid-range rather than D10 or beyond.

Yes based on one operational run, as Summer Sun's post above shows that would likely be the case beyond D9. Before that we have at least a FIVE day cold spell with possibilities of snow around for most of the UK. I'd recommend you take a look at Polar Maritime's post up thread to garner the ideas about the reliable timeframe. The reason I isolated both forum posts is that these come from experienced members of the Netweather community. I could have of course highlighted many others. Anything showing beyond D9 and more specifically from one run in isolation (GFS 6z) should be taken as a improbability right now. Just shows how easily people are fooled into thinking every chart is an exact replication of future prospects, er no... it simply doesn't work like that. Step back and enjoy the slowly evolving rollercoaster ride into colder synoptics.

Certainly possible that may well be the case but personally I don't buy into it, we are on the brink of a reasonably notable spell of cold weather in my opinion. Whilst I agree also with what you say about the dramatic charts as you call them, these were always just out of reach i.e. the charts which ranged from D7 to D10 on the ECM yesterday and the day before. I believe these were the ones eulogised over but also the low-res of the last two day's GFS 12zs were tasty throughout too. The cold is definitely now within reach and more appropriately it is moving into the reliable. Additionally, some snow-making 850 charts are within range from broadly D5 onwards. For those trying to gather a general idea, I'd suggest that too many folk over-analyse each run and they should simply sit back and check the actual progression of the runs, more especially those inter-runs 00z with 00z and 12z with 12z as each day passes. Slowly slowly catchy monkey yes, but it will soon be brass monkey weather for all parts of the UK, you mark my words.