gottolovethisweather

Agreed, there has to be some concern over the forthcoming weekend's newsworthy event. I have seen this event being discussed on current BBC media forecasts but uncertainty remains as to where and how much is in reality likely to fall at this range and quite rightly they're being very cautious. As Capel Curig in Snowdonia has received over a meter of rain during the space of 44 days another 200mm wouldn't be great news for that part of the UK, for sure. Also, should the latter stages of the GFS 12z came about, Spring like temperatures would seemingly be possible on a couple of days in the run up before Christmas and before that, further deluges and windstorms amongst some drier periods. The Cuckoos might well be on their way back from Africa at this rate too. Any chance the GFS operational is off on one beyond its' D5/D6 timeframes, YES 100% sure it is. SUMMATS UP THOUGH METHINKS!

Indeed now we know why the individual member spreads over recent runs in the ensembles have diverge greatly from the 12th onwards. A pattern change albeit one that might last no more than just a 4-5 day period is on its way I feel. Beyond D8-D10 there are suggestions that we might revert to type but after the weekend's troublesome rain and this week's further spells of rain and wind, I think a calmer more settled period of HP could be a reasonable prospect to hope for. Who knows, we might get a reverse flow out into FI, which would warm the cockles of a few coldie's hearts in here. The more models struggle with their mid-range to longer-term evolutions the better I say, as it all smacks of a pattern change to me. Yes some inter/intra-run differences of late, I expect our friend Shannon is playing with us, nothing much changes my view from previously, if I'm honest. Previously

Hmm, yes best put some words against this post, erm you never know it might actually do just that.

Cross model suite confusion still as has been the case over many recent days and at as early as D6 then, speaks volumes for me. Sadly, there are much more pertinent discussions to be had around the next few days' rain and further flooding potential. Beyond this weekend, it is with growing confidence that I see next week as a turning point in the UK Winter. I'm not predicting entrenched bitter cold air lasting for days upon end or for equally Blizzards in Barnet but I do see a change a-coming, one that coldies and/or those seasonal types amongst us will enjoy. Not much difference Northern Hemispherically speaking from this post except that things might start ramping up in here should these prospects remain in the outputs come the early part of next week. Personally, I still stand by what I said here.

Most informative post we'll see this year in here. What tickled your fancy as they say, jtay?

Remember this from the other day showing up on the ECM 12z at t+192 hrs, Now we're at t+120hrs (Saturday 12th December) or thereabouts courtesy of the overnight ECM operational and this is what we have. Not much change on the face of it for the anticipated t850s to that of three days ago, which is good, given we want some consistency. Temperatures in the Average to slightly cooler than Average category by D5 and hopefully drier over the UK as well in five days' time. The main difference to what was shown by the first ECM chart compared to now is the cooler pattern over the US than that previously forecast. Clearly they will be ramifications on our weather beyond D7 or thereabouts should the Atlantic train reawaken, but my question is will it? I believe we might get a chance to see a reverse zonal flow (N/NE/E influence to our weather) once the transient ridge passes by so watch this space in terms of that. My interest is piqued as with many folk in here by looking beyond the immediate more predictable timeframes into those mid to longer range timescales. Well, from the 13th December onwards, I still believe some form of pattern change (Should you be located in the NW or Scotland you'll be shouting Hoorah be gone flooding rains and winds at this stage) is on its way for the second half of December. Here is part of my reasoning based upon these 850s charts from the ECM 0z aforementioned. Come December 13th - D6 the view across the nearby continent indicates that cooler 850s should be infiltrating down from parts due Northern and Eastern Europe by then? Good, as it is not just that has seen a very mild and stormy pattern these past few weeks. Come D7 14th December you see this, yes still far from anything astonishing in our part of the world but the continent continually gets colder and potentially snowier conditions. D10 17th December sees a very cold pattern becoming entrenched across mainland Europe and it looks likely it will be much colder over our shores by then too. Arguably very much borderline wintry weather producing charts if at all, but I'd still suggest they will require a truck-load of salt to be thrown at them if you were to take them as given, anyhow. However, I do urge you to keep this time period firmly in mind as a potential game-changing date for this Winter thus far. Quickly then, do the GEFS ensembles from the overnight 00z run tally with this first impression of mine, well not far off as these ensembles show for Warwickshire. I decided on this choice as a location as it best represents the central UK picture at said timeframes. Here are the 850s, Maximum Temperature forecasts and precipitation totals expected over the coming 16 days. Yet again, 12th December is shown up as where FI (the period beyond which forecast uncertainty increases alarmingly) begins. This is clearly illustrated to us, Thanks to the ongoing divergence indicated in individual member runs from thereon in,i.e beyond the 12th. Also, again, the period from the 17th December as hinted at by the ECM does at least appear to be of interest to us coldies. Onwards and upwards, my thoughts continue to be with those in the devastated flooded parts of the UK and I do hope things work out for all of you. Cold, frosty, snowy weather or mild, wet and windy weather, it keeps us talking and also keeps us all on our toes, may the weather be changing towards one's own desires who knows but we can live in hope.

Another day of not much of a diurnal range this December, 10.3c the low, 12c the high. Only single-digit minimum this month came about on the early hours of the 4th. Several gusts in the high-thirties mph at home during the eraly hours, which in itself is somewhat of a rarity as we are well sheltered to our South and West. 41mph the high during the height of the day, often you can add approximately 10 to say 15mph to get an idea of what it would be elsewhere. Oh for a somewhat calmer perhaps frosty day or day, well maybe around the 10th December that might just happen and then I anticipate a differing scenario to the current one developing from the 12th onwards. For now though, I am saying no more on this latter aspect.

The ECM 12z for t+192 hours is bankable enough, whilst not overly astonishing I'd take it.

And beyond this timeframe I wouldn't be placing any bets on as to what the UK will be getting thereafter. Up until then, some usable weather about especially down South if on the mile to very mild side, frosts should return nationwide by the middle of next week and then the uncertainties increase. As far I'm concerned I'm happy with the bigger picture right now with usual degree of trepidation that it might not work out as planned. Plenty to talk about before the 12-14th December and anything beyond that remains FI so all in all, I think I'll just crack a beer open and sit back and enjoy this Friday evening.

Ha ha well done Summer Sun, also mentioned this in my post above.

Agreed, I have been looking at GEFS ensembles spreads myself and have been solely concentrating on the 12zs to see if I can determine a trend using London as an example. For any others who wish to look at them, they are available on meteociel and I made reference to them here. post referring to GEFS spreads on meteociel As to my forecasting attempts at that time, I proved way off but that's life. These charts are still of use though, that is for sure. Thanks for reminding about them again, Iceberg. EDIT: I obviously hadn't read the other posts when I posted this, so my apologies but same sentiments apply.

Yes indeed PM, see the following post from the last day of November. In there I made a reference to being cautious yet remaining optimistic. My view was that I'd like to see such Northerly teases in the reliable timeframe which still applies but we are slowly nearing those D5 to D7 timeframes to which I mention. December 12th remains a date to watch in my book but the significance of this date in my mind will only remain should we see consistency in the outputs post the HP ridge event mid-next week. I'm taking early bookings for our future emotional model rollercoaster ride events at a discounted price as of today, anyone interested, priced at 19.47 a ticket. EYES DOWN!

Rest of this week largely unsettled for England and Wales, some respite at times further into Scotland and Ireland, Temps average to colder than normal in spells up the North, milder than usual down South. Mild wet and windy for most parts of the UK at the weekend. Next week, a more settled picture at least on a couple of days nationwide resulting in a patchy frost in places and hopefully some much needed sunshine for a few of us. Never cold perhaps near average for most and possibly milder than normal again in the South during the latter part of the week. After a potentially troublesome Monday for folk in the South, Thanks to strong winds and prospects for further flooding rain, things will dry out for most of us nationwide as the week goes by. Beyond this, placing confidence in any surface conditions and corresponding surface features would be folly, which stands to reason. Whilst the default SW to NE Jet flow up above us in the atmosphere may well be a fair bet once more, I think an Atlantic driven Jet based set up with a higher incidence of NW'rly incursions is more likely than not. NO changes broadly speaking before D10 then but mid December from perhaps as early as the 12th is where I'll be focussing my thoughts about any potential major pattern change. Things to watch. fluctuating Pacific Jetstream activity and associated troughing and just how this in turn effects the US weather situation Where next week's developing HP cell positions itself over our part of Europe and how long it might hang around for Whether this in turn allows for upper High development in the Greenland region Stratosphere changes affecting the longer-term signal for the 2nd half of December and whether something more traditional might pop up just in time for Christmas Will tonight's ECM backup these thoughts of mine or will I be facing prison time for wrongful forecasting tendencies? Cheers all and do play nicely, whatever the weather.

Indeed and so few realise it, it seems. Can be as early as early November as this article states. http://thedaffodilsociety.com/wordpress/daffodils-in-full-bloom-in-balmy-cornwall/ Cornwall's climate isn't balmy for no good reason.

Yes, sound enough advice but also, no one person is able to forecast FI timescales accurately yet alone earlier conclusions. With FI beginning as early as D4 occasionally and as late as D10 in other situations, perhaps beyond, I believe we need to watch our forecasting attempts, I guess this precisely why those with greatest experience don't get hung up on all the surface details beyond such timeframes. Same can be said for all those inter and intra-run differences from the ECM, Met O, GFS or whichever model suite one uses, Mother Nature will often have the last laugh at any of our own forecasting efforts anyway. Not to say, we cannot try though as that is simply human nature, eyes down to this afternoon's and evening runs we go then. Officially the start of DECEMBER tomorrow, wahoo.

I think it might also please a couple of Netweather members whose forecast was in part based around these suggestions too. Some useful analysis in your post as ever Singularity, Thanks.

I'll start believing it when it comes into the reliable so I will need to see such charts pop up within the D5 to D7 timeframe. So at that rate, it's going to be a long wait yet and therefore will taking those charts with a truck-load of salt instead of the usual pinch for now. I'm not saying yay or neigh here by the way, just wanting to keep my cards close to my chest for now. What I'd like to witness firstly is my foreseen settled prediction and with that, the removal of next weekend's low from the various model suites. Time will tell, but give things another few days yet and we might well see those charts of wintry potential coming into much more reliable timeframes and the second half of December becoming one to remember for us coldies. Not to say, things aren't wintry right now up the North with a heck of a lot of snow about for some folk and then the eventual thawing come midweek. Nothing boring about this weather set up currently and perhaps this cold air/mild air battle will abate after a few days too as NH changes filter through into the mid to long-range outputs.

I do believe the NWP outputs will revert back to a more settled outlook from D6 onwards for at least few days come tomorrow/tuesday afternoon and evening's runs if not before. I hope this scenario comes to light as the current forecast for most of next week looks a wee bit miserable for those out West in particular. The following link showing GEFS 12z spreads hints at a cooling down for London from that key date of mine, the 4th December so all is not lost in us seeing something less unsettled as we head beyond D6 in the outlooks. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=306&y=141&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0 There is a good spread of heights on the pressure spreads too which kind of backs up what I'm saying, obviously uncertainty increases into week two of December and that is definitely up for grabs right now, be it dry or wet, stormy or otherwise. Either way a wild and cold/mild split to the UK's weather as we into the first few days of December.

Bar a milder blip during a couple of days within the next seven, courtesy of mild sectors within passage surface features, the outlook remains as currently expected for some time now. That is somewhat average Temps by day, minimal chances of frost by night with some brief spells of wintriness over the far North. D7 is still the timeframe by which things look set to change to somewhat more settled weather, at least for 4 days countrywide maybe longer. All in all, two days on, things remain on track as per my previous post I'd say. https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84434-model-output-discussion-16th-nov-onwards/?p=3291242 Eyes down for any differences to this scenario in the ECM and UKMO runs beyond D7. December and Meteorological Winter will only be four days old by then and my best advice is to SIT BACK and enjoy the rollercoaster ride ahead of us. Butterflies will have hibernated but the butterfly effects will remain as we attempt to decipher those day to day predictions of our global climate. Do not get too hung up on the details and simply enjoy the ride. Take care now.

I use the 850s as approximate guides to suggest what the surface Temperature might be in terms of average climatological Maximums during any given time. So for instance, -6 850s are pretty much needed for snow-forming synoptics IMBY come late November, which equates to 8/9 Celsius minus 6 Celcius dragging the AT down to nearer 2-3c at the surface which given other favourable parameters in tow, a snow-producing Temperature. Hope that makes sense? Basically the word average sums things up well based upon your figures above, in fact I imagine that is precisely the term the Met Office are probably using.

And over the last few runs from the GFS this appears to be a recurring trend, which I am certainly pleased to see. Should this NH setup continue over the coming days, December across a lot of NW Europe could well become much more favourable for colder than average Temperatures than currently forecast. A straw to clutch but I view the date of December 4th as a potential game-changer across a few runs of late. Most of this brought about a difference in behaviour of the NH Jetstream over the Pacific region which thereby affects the US and allows us to receive a quiet spell of weather. The Arctic High seemingly builds in strength around then and this then causes changes in the PV positioning. A few IFs, BUTS, and MAYBEs but it is a trend I have noticed which seemingly is gathering momentum. I thereby suspect a more settled pattern to things to develop across the UK by then and it will be a case of just where does the HP cell want to position itself over us, to our NE or to our West. Much agree as others have stated, there aren't that many milder days forecast over the coming 10-14 days so seasonally average it will be for most. In fact, the last double-digit Maximum at base camp was on the 19th November so hopefully we'll largely see a continuation of "how things feel" as to now for a while yet before something colder turns up later.

I think I went with 70% chance for colder than average, so I've stuck with that. A few things in favour of this occurring I believe so why not?

Oh well I did suggest a newer clearer trend might emerge via the various NWP outputs by midweek (at least that's what I meant by my post, sorry for any confusion there). It's just NOT the one I hoped for or expected to see, Euro High and potential for W/SW flows over the UK, yuk! See below. https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84434-model-output-discussion-16th-nov-onwards/?p=3289848 I've replicated below the most relevant section in reply to Nick F's original post who in my opinion has forecast the forthcoming set up very accurately. "Overall, the bigger picture NH wise and those stratospheric signals remain of interest though, according to those in the know, so let's see how things unfold as head deeper still into month end. I reckon after these usual weekend wobbles within the various NWP outputs, they might yet pick up on an entirely different evolving trend again as we head into the midweek period." Moving into our prospects post November then. Two things to watch in the run up to the start of Winter proper (after all, it is only 24th November even now) are whether the PV waxes or wanes and of course where it positions itself consistently within those latter FI stages in the outputs. Another aspect of note I feel is the NH Jet situation over the Pacific and just how it might affect the NH Jet position leaving the US as it heads for our shores. It was precisely this last aspect that was well modelled in the GFS operationals some ten days back or so and led me to think a complete change was in the offing and so it did, unfortunately for those looking deep cold for now.

And the latest operational 12z run from the GFS seems to back these thoughts of yours up too. Tis early days yet though but not much on offer for coldies yet in mainland England bar Frosty spells and perhaps a few wintry showers in between the passage lows. Next weekend does appear be our next best chance for something similar to what has just been, a few more runs needed to confirm this latter aspect. Overall, the bigger picture NH wise and those stratospheric signals remain of interest though, according to those in the know, so let's see how things unfold as head deeper still into month end. I reckon after these usual weekend wobbles within the various NWP outputs, they might yet pick up on an entirely different evolving trend again as we head into the midweek period.

Overnight low of -1.7c so that's another good ole statistic ticked of the list, first Autumn Frost. What with those first few snowflakes of the 2015/16 Autumn-Winter period mentioned by PB but not seen by me, that's not a bad start to things. I wonder whether next weekend's wintry prospects are still there? Best go have a looksie.