William of Walworth

Which of those two near-opposites will back down first for next week, everyone must be trying to work out. Tough job.

Yes, S.I. : and no huge washouts either -- at least further South. Yes -- like all Johnny Cash fans (?) you talk sense. To me, 'typical' means 'haven't any idea ahead of the last minute' IMO, a broadly zonal N/S divide seems the most likely compormise to hold onto pending more ...

Edited on reflection -- last night's silliness removed. Have hopes now that Captain S (below) and GFS really are onto something.

Those snapshot 12z charts that ANYWEATHER posted contrast quite sharply with the ones that Frosty posted. It's all too early in the day (and again, I'm short of time) but how do people reconcile the different messages?

As Frosty says .... Quite right -- seen a whole lot of worse! I guess I was guilty of combining shortage of checking time with panic, earlier on.

Well this thread's gone worrryingly quiet. I haven't got time right now to check latest output properly myself, apologies. But do I conclude that no news is bad news (in summer terms). Or just that our regular model watchers and readers are just busy for now as well, and waiting for more evidence and pointers?

Points taken. I'm not very good on reading/understanding anomoly charts so I tend to rely on interpetation of them from others -- as you say john knows his onions on them very well. Still, my point from before remains, lets check further operational and ensemble runs over coming days and with caution, because we just don't know yet whether or not the suggested Atlantic fireup is being pushed too early or too much (or too universally perhaps, in UK-geographic terms -- my money stays on a zonal divide of some sort).

I thought mushy's post of what the 006z runs are showing just now, along with his reading of the anomoly charts was a very fair summary, and yes ECM 006z certainly didn't make pleasant reading for summer preferrers. But I have to say as well that Tamara seems to me to be absolutely right to apply caution (FI caution!) about what may actually happen beyond the coming weekend. Some runs (individual ones, at that) can be just as over-progressive about removing any HP influence and firing up the Atlantic, as others can be to over-emphasising ridging. I see that mushy and john are both pointing to the anomoly charts to predict more in the way of upper trough trend than an upper ridge one from those signals, and their reasoning makes plenty of sense, but all the same we may end up with more of a NW/SE divide (or a N/S one) in reality, than looks likely just now. I admit there's some speculation (even hopecasting!) in my post, but let's see.

Some pleasant looking recent runs indeed with some nice Azores High ridging ... personally I'm more than happy to see earlier trends for the forthcoming week more or less being confirmed. Next weekend, and maybe? beyond, looking very acceptable for settled weather preferrers -- further south at least, Who needs heatwaves?

But you're in Bristol, which could share some very acceptable conditions. I take your point that the North remains likely to be more unsettled, but still, recent runs do suggest a non-washout for quite a wide area over the next week to ten days, After Monday's done with obviously ... then sunshine and showers for mid week, then likely to be drying and warming up over quite a large area of the S towards the weekend.

I don't really get this 'bog standard summer' idea for the next week or ten days. In fact I'm with Frosty on the glass half full interpretation, maybe even a bit more than half full, for pleasant summer weather preferrers towards the S. Not sure how representative the GFS 06z is for general trends, more runs required etc, but IF the Azores High influence really does get as strong as that run might suggest, then that to me that represents somethig far morte positive than bog standard. Admittedly not anywhere near to the same extent for those further North, but at least it's not just the furthest SE corner that's could join in with the sunshine. Compare it to last summer, or to 2007, when sun cravers would have killed for runs of that type.

With reference to the links BALE1 posted, and East_England_Stormchaser91's post too : That ECM has developed a violently deep Atlantic Low far too suddenly for later next week to be realistic, surely? As well as the usual FI health warnings, it's surely reasonable to be very sceptical (at this stage) about the chances of it developing as severely as that? I suppose its strength and severity being so out of the blue is what's making me go 'Hello? Where did that come from?' Looks far too 'dartboard' for August, and far too sudden after recent conditions/output/trends. Perhaos more of N/S (or NW/SW) divide might? be the somewhat more likely outcome when you compare ECM to other recent outputs. Maybe the more confident analysts and signal readers can help out here. (Trying not to panic about washouts for next week ... )

I'm somewhat fearful from the latest range of output that we'll end up at frequent risk of storms and downpours in what looks like some pretty serious heat in coming days and into next week. This especially concerns me for the w/e around Friday9th/Saturday 10th August, but thankfully we're still too early to be certain. Us festival goers prefer stable HP driven warmth rather than hugely unstable heat ...

I'm keeping an eye on that large area of High Pressure shown to the UK's SW on the later frames of Frosty's post. Hard to be sure yet how strongly? that might build towards us in FI but IF it were to do so, prospects for early, August, maybe for mid August too, could become very pleasant and summery. That would please many, including me who likes warm and settled more than hot and unstable/stormy. Taking on board what shed has just said as well, as he correctly says nothing's nailed on yet. I'm also taking notice too of john's warning that the anomoly charts allow different evolutions to be possible. And as he says, once you get into August, ex-hurricanes often render everything unpredictable in Atlanticland.

It's the mid (?) month developments for August that I'm most interested in personally, so as you say shed, we'll have to wait and see how that pans out. But some output does show some sign of HP possibly reasserting some more settled influence around/maybe after the w/e of 10th August does it not? That's very deep FI obviously, but many of us summer lovers would welcome this IF it were to verify. Will be watching upcoming runs with interest next week, once they start to firm matters up for later.

To summarise recent posts, and recent output, uncertainty rules the roost 100% So anyone hinting at a definite switch to a long unsettled spell, or equally if anyone is confident that settled conditions will reassert themselves any time soon ... well both trains of thought could have an equal chance of their predictions verifying! So that makes somewhere inbetween most likely IMO.

Sensible thoughts there mushy (edit : and from Captain S as well), I agree. Nothing's reliable in FI as we always remind ourselves, but perhaps one or two hints of possible HP rebuilding (at least for more S'ly areas) beyond the short/medium term? Certainly not impossible in some of the more recent models.

Chio and shed seem strongly convinced that early August will become much more unsettled. I'm a realist and I can see some of the signals lying behind this thinking, but I'm sure both those posters would also agree that notes of caution should still be necessary about anything beyond next week? I have my doubts that any full on pattern change is nailed on yet. As said above it partly depends what happens over Greenland etc. do we really know which way things are going to go up there yet, over the next few weeks? OK you've answered my point already really! Thanks.

Absolutely, the post you quoted looked like hopecasting from draztic, not forecasting. My earlier post last night was aimed at coaxing some informed/objective conjecture from experienced model readers about how early August MIGHT turn out synoptically. Finding this more than a bit hard to call myself. Thanks for any suggestions.

harryc said just above (sorry, can't seem to quote properly) : "No idea how the summer pattern will evolve but what I can see is in the reasonably reliable time frame of 5-7 days max, it is going to get hotter than what we have had so far". I agree completely with that on latest readings. I'm not a storm fan (unlike many -- respect to them), nor am I that bothered personally if were just to hit 24C, or 32C or more, or anywhere inbetween. But my own preference is for any breakdown -- and I agree some sort of one looks possible (even likely?) for later next week, as after all hot spells -- to be temporary/limited/benign. As ever, I think really firm predictions beyond mid next week are very hard to call at the moment. Do people more confident in predicting than me, still agree that High Pressure might still be the form horse going through FI and beyond though? Irrespective of exact warmth levels?

No, one can't 'assume' anything. Any 'breakdown' would be well into FI, and very far from certain IMO. Please at least try to be objective about the various model output, thanks.

'Breakdown' prediction details look immensely unreliable to me at the moment. Similarly so to HP FI 'predictions'/hopecasting in recent Atlantic/Jet driven years.

There seems to be plenty in the most recent runs contradicting any suggested cool down as early as that though, as far as I can see. (That was >> rory .... I tend to agree with Frosty ... )

Got back today at 2 pm. We were on site Sunday afternoon (23rd June) to earlyish this morning (Tuesday 2nd July). Apols for lack of onsite updates from my friend paolo, but he was very busy with Arcadia photography and other photos in SE corner. But I now see North.West was posting anyway. Overall we were were pretty lucky weren't we? Only 2 bad days -- Sunday 23rd June when very strong winds were blowing (pretty chilly too, in the wind), we had a nightmare putting up our very large tent in the afternoon. And then of course Thursday from the afternoon onwards. R**n between about 3 pm and 11 pm , with some morre overnight after that. But it was never serious-downpour heavy, most of the time light, even patchy at points, only occasionally moderate and the mud was easily dealable with -- thin, and nowhere near all over the site. And the combination of a good breeze and warm sun on Friday dried it all out very quickly. All other days were excellent, to get through such a long period with so much dry weather, and a fair amount of warm sunshine too, was pretty good going. The heat averse could handle maxes of 18C to 21C, the mud averse were not troubled. Oh yes and weather aside we had a thoroughly excellent festival (my 17th, my partner's 16th, and in both our cases our 5th on the crew). Will post on other sites about some of the many and various non weather aspects ..... Thanls again to JACKONE for all the good work.

CHEERS! Thanks for all the excellent quality model analysis everyone, just now looking largely very positive for those heading SW. Been packing all this morning pending festivaldeb's imminent return. We're off at 1 pm and that's me gone. Being hardcore crew types, we'll be on Glastonbury site (sometimes working, often not!) from afternoon of Sunday 23rd June to Tuesday 3rd July. My name will be absent from this site til then. Could possibly be a classic year. Wearing strong boots already, and have packed warm clothes and waterproofs anyway! Cider and beer too ... sunbloc and sun hat and t-shirts and shorts as well .... as for the past 16 fests, we're prepared for all conditions ... Have a great last week of June all. Loving it rright now .... if matters turn downhill I won't see this site to torture myself with, I'm offline. GONE!