William of Walworth

Does that mean that the intense-looking low shown on the charts knocker posted, is more likely to be an outlier, I wonder?

I haven't checked the most recent output in as much detail as I'd like, but re the above disgreements, may I gently suggest that the idea of some sort of breakdown for next weekend (that of Saturday 6th Sept) is far from nailed on yet. Not supported by all the models anyway. May happen, may not, we all now that as ever, there's plenty of time for positioning and detail to change between now and then.

Yes, the suggestion of a rainy breakdown (however transient) for next w/e -- that of Sat 6th September -- in SOME recent models (not all) is annoying me a fair bit as well. Good weather for 'back to school' is unimportant to us (no kids, no school connections) but I appreciate that we're in the minority there. Still, that very same factor means we have lots of free weekends, and the number of times since June even, that it's been the weekends that have seen rain, even during relatively settled periods generally, is bound to impact on festival going types like us. Or other times, we're, beer sampling types -- we have places booked on a small coach for a proper beer pubs tour of the Gower for next Saturday (6th) ... NO RAIN PLEASE!! These pubs have gardens ... My main wish/hope right now is that next weekend. and some other ones in Septemnber too, become more settled with any rain confined to weekdays.(Or to the North/Scotland ... ) Saying that, prospects for this coming weekend, Sat 30-Sun 31st -- just when we have no particular plans -- offer strong hopes that rapid improvements are coming our way so not everything's all bad.

Of course those 12z ensemble mean charts that Frosty posts from ECM are for the moment only a snapshot possibility for later next week, but charts like that should provide just a small note of caution to those tempted to assume (as I was over previous days/runs) that trough persistance is bound to win and that any efforts at HP encroachment will inevitably be thwarted. There've been odd hints of possible returns to more HP influenced conditions at least for the S (albeit in FI) in some runs for a little while now. Who's to say that such trends might not become a tad stronger than we originally thought? Notice I said 'might'! And of course later runs may well send all that back in the opposite direction too. But beyond the next few days there seems to be plenty still up for grabs (for now). Appreciate that I'm speculating.

On those rainfall charts from SteveB, tomorrow looks closer to a washout for a lot of places than do the subsequent three days (at least in the S).

Well, I refuse to be too disheartended (and I'm actually more focussed on the upcoming weekend than Bank Holiday time). Far from a washout on these latest outputs for this weekend, at least not in Devon (where we'll be). Even with such a shortage of summer in current forecasts/output, Friday and Saturday in particular look they may end up pretty pleasant. Just need a modest improvement with HP lingering a little longer (and yes I know that would be temporary) to keep Sunday a bit drier, delaying rain until Monday maybe? and I'd BANK given the trough dominated scenarios we're looking at now in general.

Excellent posts from Tamara and John btw. I find it hard sometimes to follow that level of detailed analysis, but guidance from experts is always good for less informed amateurs like me ... And more selfishly for me, I see only quite limited scope for extreme August washouts from what both of them are suggesting,

Surely not just a plume that PM? (To me the term 'plume' suggests short lived, UK-clipping heat/instability. Or am I wrong?) If anything anywhere near the above came close to verifying for that time around mid August. we'd surely be looking at somewhat more resilient and widespread HP domination? Or am I misunderstanding that chart .... ?

I've given up on strawclutching and hopecasting for now, what with both anomolies, means and ensembles all currently continuing to show the start of a pretty unsettled (and often wet in places) spell froim about Friday onwards. My earlier hopes of this being transient/shortlived with aswift return to HP influenced conditions next week, I'm starting to give up on. Unless there's a pretty big turnaround or radical shift in the rough's position for next week, over the next few days/sets of runs. Don't see it, nothing supporting anything lie that in today's output anyway. Couldn't be worse times for our wek away involving two festivals and a week under canvas. Everything's peaked too damned early!

At mushy : Not time to go into this now but yes mushy, I believe 00z models are looking rather unsettled. Does that mean though that# the possible trend spotted by phil nw above (post #743) is likely to have been been superseded/outdated already? ETA : Just seen I'm dreaming of's post too. Unsettled city then, unless there's some further changes in the next few runs. Always possible, at least in the detail.

It certainly has been in past years yes. Is there any reliable support yet, synoptically, for this August turning out similar? I'd be very cautious about calling a washout or not for the month one way or the other so early on.

Beautiful Days down Devon-way maybe? Or is it V? We're due for festavals for the next three weekends (including that of Sat 16th August). Cheshire, Shropshire and S Devon respectively. Absolutely not the right time for conditions to turn more unsettled, and that's exactly what's currently suggested for next Thursday or Friday. Hence my losing it a tad the other day on this thread with 'writer offers' of August -- apologies for that, but some posters do seem almost to take pleasure in ramping up unsettled for periods of weeks on end once the models turn more unsettled for a few days from now! But nothing's nailed on for later than this coming week yet, or at least not beyond next weekend. I'm praying for a swift return to HP influence, and that's by no means impossible in FI. Who knows?

Thanks for those NHC explanations, John and Gael_Force --- I'm not often a stormwatcher so that earlier post caught me out really. Interesting post from Alex re possible (?) trough retrogression. Just been looking at some recent output and for now, I'd be very reluctant to predict any kind of detail for next weekend and beyond. So I find myself agreeing with ANYWEATHER ...beware of FI, for the moment.

My apologies for limited understnding here, but can you (or someone else) please explain a bit more what that bolded bit might mean for us, and what the implications could be (or not)? Cheers -- entirely appreciated that you're referring to FI but still!

All points taken John, you are right of course. I hadn't had time to properly check all the models when I posted my 'hopecasting' post yesterday. Signs/support definitely growing now for quite an unsettled spell for many around next weekend, but the devil will still be in the detail, I suppose its not impossible that the strength of the trough might still get reduced somewhat, but the likelihood definitely seems against that for the moment. Trying not to pin too many hopes for now on POSSIBLE signs in some models of a rebuild of pressure later on into week 2, but those signals will still be worth monitoring over future runs to see if they remain/strengthen/disappear/get contradicted. For summerlovers, whether or not the upcoming trough-influenced weather lasts or is just more transient could make a big difference. I'd caution against assuming anything one way or the other for now, usual FI caution applies -- In other words neither write August off nor assume the month will be cool and damp throughout ....

Blatant hopecasting here, and generalising too, but on previous summer occasions that I'm sure many on here will remember, trough influence has weakened somewhat/stayed further North the nearer to zero hours you get, with HP influence SOMETIMES not weakening as much as expected, or even remaining more persistant than some models predict. Of course the reverse happens too, but nothing's nailed on for next weekend yet.

Would also quite like to be stopped the general summertime habit on model analysis threads (either here or on the other main one) of assuming that breakdown rampers are being realistic, and that settledness predictors are being overoptimistic. There've been plenty of occasions when serial pessimists have been taken aback (although trough lovers/Atlantic Low-wishers/breakdown merchants of this kind are rarely prepared to admit it openly) by how robust High Pressure influence can sometimes be able to persist ...

I'm allowed to do this because it's not the main model olutput thread where even the slightest frustrated post in reaction to selective trough rampers is denounced as 'offtopic' Stop, just stop, writing off August,. And please, if you MUST try and do that, try just a little bit harder to conceal your very obvious delight in ramping up a breakdown. Your desparation for unsettled/autumnal/terrible weather is obvious enough, even to realistic pessimists like me. JUST STOP IT!!

Could you please have a go at reconciling what's shown on the links you posted, knocker, with what some other runs have tended still to show? Haven't time to update myself with all the very latest output this morning (off to work v soon) but while I'm inclined to agree with Hathers post (just above), and mushy's too, for now, I'm also realistic enough to accept less good news when it's there. Still, what you posted, especially the bit I've bolded, looked a little out of line with other output to me -- explain please.

In response to my own post from earlier today, just above .... some of the more recent posts/charts from later today, over on the main model output thread, have been somewhat more reassuring for avoidance of a total breakdown and even for continuance of summerlike conditions. I'm partially reassured for now. I do tend to get far too paranoid at times. Apologies all ... (But still keeping my fingers crossed!!)....

Just back from a chunk of time away to catch up. Warmth and sunlover that I am, I absolutely love seeing this sort of post and the charts that justify them. Unfortunately its from Sunday 20th! What I absolutely hate though. is subsequently seeing a new set of runs only a few hours later, with some of them showing breakdowns and uncertainty later in the run. As one or two of the most recent posts in the main model discussion thread, eg in 00z output, seem to be starting to include signs of, into week two. Please can we start to have more reassuring runs again, for a revival of more prolonged settledness? Our main week away, with festivals at either end of it in Cheshire and Shropshire respectively, doesn't start until Friday 1st August -- the last thing I want is our weather starting to be be less settled/trough influenced/possibly even Atlantic trough influenced!! It really would be a case of summer peaking too early for us if that came about. More FI improvements once again please!

This is a an anti-moan (though possibly a ramp!) : current output showing some stunning summer prospects for most of the UK for at least a week, with plenty of dry, settled sunny. Possibly it could head into two weeks of it even! Just need to get rid of this coming w/e's nuisance-storms first!

With reference to chapmanslade's last sentemnce just above, I'm finding it pretty tricky to predict likely rain/downpour levels and locations, and the same for sun/cloud, for Friday and (especially) Saturday in the very latest outputs. Maybe a few people would care to hazard some some suggestions here (as well as just for temperatures). Which areas are going to be winners/losers in the sunshine vs storms wars this coming weekend do people reckon? Thanks all.

Agreeing to differ time once again then! I'd object much less to thunderstorms (and yes, they can be exciting) if they arrived midweek -- we seem fated at the moment though to have risks of thundery downpours/washouts confined to weekends ..... Not good to those of who head for our outdoor festivals regularly over the summer <declares personal interest!>

I'd be more than happy for a reduced heat (22C rather than 29C) and much less rain combo for next weekend (Friday to Sunday particularly). I'd be much more excited this time of year, about any prospects for settled with more sun and more moderate warmth. Rather less excited about thunderstorms and instability. 'Cape Values' and mega-convectivity leave me annoyed and shortchanged. No heatwaves please, unless they can be dry settled ones! .... Dry's where I want it to be .... But pretty much all the models point against my personal wishes for next w/e right now .... FIGHT BACK, HIGH PRESSURE!!!!!