William of Walworth

Those UKMO charts that Summer Sun posted above look like the most positive for the earliest HP build -- from Friday. Plus the recent Countryfile BBC forecast (still UKMO sourced, for now!) for the coming week was also bullish about a HP build for next weekend, starting Friday.

Current model output beyond the immediate/short term, is pretty frustrating to this here model watcher. Inconsistent as ever. My focus of hopecasting for mostly dry/reasonably pleasant weather centres completely around the w/e of Friday 25th to Monday 28th September. For Gloucestershire/Forest of Dean -- our very very last campervan outing to our very last (openair) music festival (with beer n cider too!) of the very late summer, will be that weekend! After that, hibernation from this forum beckons for me so if fierce/wet/stormy/Jet-driven weather arrives south of Scotland from Tuesaday 29th, I can cope. But no earlier please! Some pretty nice FI candy from some models for the above dates has been posted on the main Model Output thread. But FI is FI, 'some' is the operative word, therefore nails continue to be bitten ... Some of my festie friends heading to the Alchemy Festival in rural Lincolnshire this coming weekend (from tomorrow night, Thursday 17th) look as if they might be in luck for dry -- again!

And thanks to Singularity for that nicely balanced and clearly explained intepretation of the 12z GEFS charts, just above.

Personally I'm hoping/hopecasting that those 6z and 12Z GFS runs that Frosty has been discussing above (albeit any optimism is strictly FI-based!) do come to fruition in some form for after next week. But I'm very sceptical, because several of the other latest models contradict much if any idea of another settled/summerlike spell like that for later this month. Still, sceptism about FI should apply equally IMO, to writing off the whole of September yet, or to assumptions that next week's almost certainly very unsettled prospects will inevitably continue throughout the month. As we know, storms/hurricanes, or the ex-versions, can throw a few spanners in the works at all kinds of forecasts.

Very last sentence about a possible rebuild of HP in very deep FI : any actual support for this Frosty? I see little model-backed evidence for that myself. But I ask as a hopecasting serial pessimist** ... (**who as a non-coldist, is going to hibernite until Easter from these excellent NW forums after our final 'outdoor event' of the 'summer', this f*st*v*l not due until w/e of Sat 26 Sept .... in Gloucestershire .... ) ETA : I don't seem to be able to bold or highlight anything here ...

The above to my mind is by no means nailed on (or at least not for so soon as suggested in those images ANYWEATHER has posted). Indeed by the usual rule, nothing is yet nailed on for FI which by its very nature is FI. For now, I'd say : approach September outlooks with more caution -- there's plenty of possibilities in SOME of current FI op output for this month, and even in some of the anomoly output, to retain its traditional quietness for longer. Is there not a risk of predicting full-on Autumn to come in too early?

Lovely charts Frosty -- for those going away in early Sept, rather than the coming weekend! </grumpy to be heading away with wind and rain threatening from Thursday, while confined to home when the traditional September UK High might take over>

I posted the above last night (21:42 Monday) more in desparation, than in expectation of any improvement. I'm seriously expecting a washout at points over the coming w/e. But, just to strawclutch (only!), the BBC basic forecast for Exeter (UKMO based but obviously much simpler) for the relevant few days, the most recent one updated at 6 pm today I think, does not actually look too wet. Is South Devon have any serious prospect of avoiding the worst? I very much doubt it, and in fact I'm steeling myself for deterioration in coming hours/days given how much wetter most other recent models are looking.

Looking like any chances (at this stage) of almost anywhere in the UK staying DRY in the Thursday 21st to Monday 24th of August period look pretty damned low** on most of the latest output. **being the operative word. My area of (personal) interest for the coming weekend is the South Devon/Exeter area. Any hopes of anything more benign developing for the above period round there? Right now I'm not seeing this ...

Re those charts posted by knocker at the foot of page 16 : Not sure I really understand those charts in that format. Is the above a threat to HP influence in the UK (especially South) next week?

I think I perceive a reason why I hibernate from these forums over the winter ...

Not completely disagreing with that, as on occasion the gaps he leaves frustate me, But your valid point that 'charts over 5+ days rarely become the reality' is also advice (ie FI is FI) that should also apply, and strongly, to the writer-offers, ie those who highlight/cherrypick the very worst charts within a run. And IMO, Frosty shows a wider range of output most often, and justifies them better, than those who present pessimistic charts misleadingly. They know who they are.

Respect to mushy's post above. Frosty has been much criticised for his optimistic predictions. Often these frustrate me (another summer-lover/hopecaster!) for focussing a tad too much on FI and not enough on prospects (usually worse, of late) for 'up to the coming weekend' This year's frequent inability of High Pressure to build enough has been a killer for those who want some properly settled spells away from just the SE. But on the main Model Output thread, I really think one or two other contributors relish a little too much the VERY WORST cherry picked charts and dismiss any possibility of HP influence at any time ever.

I'm reasonably and cautiously inspired as it goes! ... but mostly by the lack of rain and cold shown for South of ... erm ... the far (far-ish?) N/NW? And with that ultra cautious question, I'm reacting only to the most very recent output. As the last few days swerves have shown already though, it's all about how relatively minor alterations in detail/positioning day to day, can affect surface conditions massively, UK wide. Combine that with the usual FI rules and there's a LOT of room over the next two or three days (or more) for move-arounds in the op runs especially, but also with other signals, to suit both improvement (for warm-weather summer lovers) and deterioration (for select-a-bad-chart doom-mongers), And a lot, if the doom-mongers (realists?) get to gloat, to frustrate those desparate for a bit of light warmth (20C?) and moderately warm sunshine (4 hours?), without much rain and wind For now, hopecasting suits me for next week! (Away in the Shropshire hills). As does relying on the more objective and well-informed interpreters here. Note bold.

I'm remaining pretty cautious at the moment. It will take a few more runs over coming days to give us a clearer picture. Some models do suggest that there MIGHT be a reasonable degree of HP influence (aka 'improvement ') later next week though.

You seem pretty confident, knocker, on the longer term trends.

That 'cold shot' should be a shortlived one anyway, even in Scotland.

On the sound annual grounds that slight changes in detail/positioning can lead to very noticeable differences in surface conditions, I'm refusing to 'write off' next week (specifically, w/e of Saturday 18th July) from my own summer-lover's perspective. At least not further South. In any case, anything much beyond this coming weekend is FI. A rule applying just as much to pessimists as to optimists (OK hopecasters ... )! Not just some of Frosty's charts that are leading me to think this, but also those parts of Tamara's reasoning that I can understand. As she rightly says, this is no 2007/2012.

Can't answer the above question, but very belatedly I just want to report back. We were onsite Sunday 21st June to Tuesday 30th June inclusive -- as crew, we arrive early and leave late. We escaped very lightly by comparison to the more serious amounts of rain threatened on some model output/forecasts immediately before we left. The rain on the night of Sunday 21st until about 11 am Monday 22nd, was very light -- often just drizzly and intermittant. With just crew onsite at that stage, and probably no more than 50% to 60% of them, very little ground damage was done. Only little bits of mud, which soon dried up once the same came out Monday afternoon. Tuesday 23rd to Thursday 25th were completely dry and mostly warm and sunny. Not debilitatingly hot either -- generally around 21C to 23C max temperatures, I'd guess. Great for all the public arriving on the Wednesday. The sometimes heavy showers of Friday 26th didn't do serious amounts of ground damage -- surprisingly, given that this was round the time when the maximum number of people were on site, and moving around most. There was some mud, but not by any measure a mudbath. Towards the end of Friday afternoon/early evening, the sun emerged again, leading into Saturday 27th which was a gorgeous day -- once again warm(er) and sunny. The rain of Sunday 28th was lighter than Friday's -- again, like the previous Monday/Sunday, light and intermittant, with only trivial amounts of mud coming up. And by early afternoon, we started to experience warm sunshine again (very soon drying everything up). Monday 29th and especially Tuesday 30th were hot and sunny! So overall, I'd give the whole shebang 7 out of 10 for good weather and lack of rain/mud. Oh yes -- we experienced some great music, sights, walkabouts, food and cider and partied a lot of the time!! We loved having our campervan for the first time (we'd only bought it on Easter Saturday) and big thanks to our crew bosses for sourcing us an onsite vehicle pass. Yay! Our shifts also went very well, with the sad exception of one woman at out Info Stall who collapsed in the strong, warm (almost hot) sunshine (23C to 24C?) on Saturday afternoon. Help was swiftly called though, and she was looked after firstly by my supervisors and then by paramedics who were brilliant. Looks very much like we'll be back next year, if nice and encouraging words from our bosses are anything to go by. 2016 will be our 20th Glastonbury each. Let's go for another one like this year weatherwise, but without the rain and mud altogether. Not impossible!

From which I conclude that a summer containing prolonged, dry, settled, breakaway-Azores-High dominated spells (1989 being a conspicuous example) needn't contain 90F temps very often (if at all). I approve.

Absence of updates?

We're off tomorrow (we'll be gone by 10 am) and I won't be able to go anywhere near online until 1st July after tonight. I've now decided that I thoroughly hate synoptics, modelling, meteorology, and weather, in all categories. The only weekend of June this year to become anywhere near a washout JUST HAPPENS to be likely to be my biggest (working) holiday of the year. Just remember what was showing across the models for right up into the end of June just a week ago. I'm trying really hard, but failing (now) to forget what most/all models were showing until last Friday (12th). Then last Saturday happened. Downhill ever since. See J10's blog. Please forgive me for offtopic-ness, thread regulars, but feel my pain ... <kills self>

Currently, none whatsoever. <condemned man eats hearty breakfast tomorrow -- we leave before 10 am Friday and we're 100% offline after tonight until 1st July>

Thanks for that Frosty, appreciated. We just need some higher pressure to mix in with those 10 hpa lines. I doubt we'll see them though ...

Most likely out of date already though. Grimsville! I'm seriously censored-off. Up to last Friday, 12th June, ALL synoptics, all models, were showing a glorious late June throughout. No sign of that now.