William of Walworth

Very sensible bolded words there IMO. Nothing is certain yet even as early as for the coming weekend. There surely remain possibilities of more changes in coming runs/days, and not necessarily towards even stronger trough domination. I made the point earlier today that the contrast between previous and more recent ECM runs looked quite an extreme downgrade. Surely caution should also apply in analysing such big changes/switches -- just as we should apply caution towards more positive model run upturns?

Well I did say last night that I was becoming very cautiously optimistic for the coming weekend! Am I alone though in wondering whether the switch between the previous and most recent ECM models is so extreme as to warrant a bit of suspicion? Is it possible perhaps that the downgrade may yet itself get downgraded in coming runs? I appreciate I'm strawclutching (indeed speculating!) but I'd put a modest punt on the possibility that the trough domination shown right now might -- emphasise might-- be a little overdone, and that the eventual outcome might still end up featuring a bit more of a N/S divide. Going no further.

Or at least confirmation in further runs over coming days, and most importantly, no downgrades ... Recent runs are leading me (as a summerlover) to be very cautiously optimistic about prospects for the end of the week and next weekend. Particularly in the South but maybe more widely. Also, I think sometimes in the summer on here, natural caution and pessimism, often based on the failure of previously predicted HP-influenced spellls to materialise in the end, can lead some people to underestimate the strength and longevity for HP incursions. Sometimes!

Thanks John -- very informative-- and Frosty. I may well take you up on that PM suggestion before too long John, but for now ... keep the synoptic updates coming, everybody. Very educative and interesting..

More pragmatically/personally, our weekend from next Thursday (near Trowbridge) would rule our world if most of Frosty's charts above end up being confirmed(ish). Especially after the failed HP influx that was at one point starting to be predicted for the last weekend of June for the S ... but which never turned up!..... More runs needed, FI unreliable, etc etc but still!

I keep trying to understand the disacrepancies between knocker's anomaly charts, and charts posted by Frosty and others today, which do seem to show distinct increases in HP influence or even actual usefulness! for summer lovers -- in the South at least. Are short term run-to-run charts utterly unimportant compared to longer-period NOAA caution? I know John H would say yes, and knocker too, but I still don't get how big the discrepancy is today. Or is NOAA anomaly a 'lagging indicator' as they say in economics?

I'll take the odd crumb. Some runs have been hinting at something of a N/S divide towards the end of next week, with possibilities of some HP influence (I go no further) in more Southern areas towards next weekend. Other runs, particularly the ECM 12z horrorshow, showed show scant hope even of that. Lets hope with further runs over coming days, that the trough retreats ever so gently Northwards or NorthWestwards. That's happened before at this time of year <strawclutching!>

Is this consistent across the board with all the different outputs though? I appreciate Frosty is a professional optimist , and finds charts to back that up, but what you've posted there seems to be completely ignoring the chances of increased HP influence later in July, that some recent output seems to be starting to support now. ETA : Just noticed you're in Oldham, and OK fair enough, it does look like further South is more likely to benefit from any more summer-like conditions. Possibly!

The above was posted by Man weith Beard yesterday (Thursday 30th) at 11:29 am, but most model analysis since on this thread has been a fair bit more unsettled-trending for the next week to 10 days, at least. Is his general thought though, that we are not yet in writeoff territory, not hold any valildity any more? To my mind there's still room for some of the detail and poisitioning to change. I wouldn't yet completely write off the weekend of Saturday 9th before we've even entered that of Saturday 2nd July. Agreed plenty of recent output is showing low pressure domionance, but still.

Any chance of a non-washout Glastonbury (mid-Somerset) next week folks? Everything still looks far too uncertain! I'm onsite down there from Sunday (19th) onwards .... and out of the house/completely offline from about 9 am tomorrow (Fri 17th) I'm glad England won this afternoon, but these latest outputs are so mixed that I fear the worst ....

Thankyou for all your updates and expert interpretation (or at least informed speculation!) everyone. Such a wide variety of projections between the different models are confusing me massively for next week right now. Us Somerset bound folks are going to have to wait yet longer before we can predict much with any confidence. There does seem to remain some hope on some recent ouput that a N/S split may turn in the S/SW's favour -- at least partly -- HP influence wise. I'm going to postpone my next synoptic checks on here until after returning home from watchng England/Wales tomorrow. Might weather prospects for next week seem clearer by about 6 to 7 pm Thursday? I have severe doubts ... I'll be mainly offline for the duration (except occasional smartphone checks from friends) after about 8:30 am Friday (17th).

For next week, I would bank the images on Frosty's most recent post but would sack the image above on koocker's most recent post. All still to play for.

I'd bank a High Prssure incursion from the SW next week too, but it has to be said that any HP-influenced prospect (on SOME recent outputs anyway), is very far from certain yet. In fact all in the balance still, and all still to play for. Squeaky bum time is right now.

Latest chat on Model Output Discussion leaves me with The Fear (for Glastonbury week (next week,) that the BBC may have been right all along, and that the better outpurt (for next week) of earlier yesterday may have been wrong. Bummer! Still praying for a last minute switcharound for next week though </hopecasts>

Anything happening Glasto-wise? Apologies if I've been rubbish at finding the relevant part of this site.

Any hopes at all folks, of any shift back towards more HP influence, at least for the South, next week? Even a slight shift back with the trough being pushed back only a bit further North, might help for those preferring less rain in Somerset ... <prays> I'm sure some posters here love these synoptic roller coaster rides, but for the last week of June especially, I'm no fan at all ... ETA : The most recent runs posted on this thread seem to show quite an erm, dramatic switcharound. Not everything fully nailed on yet? I do appreciate that if the Met was sticking to its more unsettled guns throughout, they might all along have had a more accurate handle on it Still just about time for a possible further switch though?

More recent updates on the Model Output Discussions thread show a certain amount , on some models, of better prospects for w/e of Saturday 18th June onwards. Right now that's shown anyway, but as always, prospects for actual Glasto week will cause us a hugely tense roller-coaster ride over the next very unsettled/very showery week coming up (Mon 13th to Fri 19th). When the Official Netweather Glastonbury Festival Forecast starts happening on this website, can someone please put a link to that onto this thread? Thanks folks.

Thanks for those last few updates above folks. I was in danger of starting to get a little bit too optimistic for week 2

I'm still around albeit about to go.. Fervantly fkeeping fingers crossed here that beyond what you've posted above Frosty, the propects at/after next weekend become less Low-themed. We'll need a good few more days' output for that to become clearer though. Agreed though, that from those snapshots, prospects for next week could be looking less full-on washouty than some models back on Tuesday seemed to be suggesting.

Thankyou for all the updates everybody. I've been avoiding NW since Tuesday for sanity reasons. But then, when the medium-term synoptic output for the rest of June was looking VERY Low dominated for the UK, I was (as a summer lover) both pessimistic and sceptical. Sceptical that next week's Low and Atlantic domination could really end up as extreme as some of Tuesday's outputs (and posts!) were suggesting. And pessimistic that prospects might get even less capable of High influence than Tuesday's models .... More recent output looks to me somewhat more realistic for late June. Today's output (generally) does look like it might leave leave open the door for something of an HP build, or at least influence, from the SW at or after next weekend (of Sat 18th). And closer to reliable timeframe, less of a continuous all-UK washout over the coming week, too. Normal not-too-bad June returns???.

I'm as pessimistic as anyone at the moment/right now, but 'writing off' is (almost) always poor practice when interpreting synoptics. My only current strawclutch for later on, is that there's been quite a dramatic swing towards Low Pressure-dominating conditions over the last 2/3/4 days in synoptic prospects for later June. Overdramatic, possibly? With some alteration of positioning still possible? Is such a complete removal of HP influence for later in June -- influence that was still being modelled by some output pretty recently -- not still open to question? I suppose I'm just hoping that not everything's fully nailed on yet. I'm also hoping Tamara might have time to return soon, I always welcome her detail and analysis. Who's to say summerlovers would welcome her next updates mindyou ...

Well this summer-lover is severely depressed just now. Because of the sodding timing of the current spell and it's imminent finish. I'm not even that interested in hot/sunny weather just now (much though I enjoy it). All I care about are the prospects for the weekend of Saturday 18th June onwards -- ie Glastonbury week. We're crew, and will be on site for ten days Yet in the latest chat/models on the Model Output Discussion thread thread -- including those posted by Frosty --, all I see is extreme deep-low domination for the whole of the foreseeable, from this weekend onwards. What happened to prospects of a a nice late-June spell, that were still being mentioned as recently as yesterday? Any hopes? Or am I over-reacting/being over-paranoid?

The above is nothing but nightmareish (such as myself) for amyone focussing on medium term patterns, (ie, from the weekend of 18th June onwards, for reasons you know). It seems very extreme though to me. Surely there's some half-way chance of the extremity of these lows (and possibly the positioning) being altered/downgraded? Have we really lost all prospect of any HP influence at all for later in June? Only yesterday there was still talk of it. This is all FI I know ...

Hello J10, so glad to see you resuming this brilliant service, which is ALWAYS much appreciated. Especially by the Glastonbury crew amongst us. We'll be on site from Sunday 19th June!! And not leaving until Tuesday 28th ... Current discussion on the Model Output Discussion thread looks like conditions may develop positively(-ish!) for EARLY June, but as we all know for Glastonbury, the second half of June is that much more important. (A largely dry build period ahead of the official fest, if it turns out like that, will be a good thing anyway though, over the time that heavy traffic is moving around -- less groundchurn) Fingers crossed -- as every year!

All I can say is that the synoptic agreement between almost all recent/current models from about Friday onwards is very September-like. We rarely get such reliably settled spells so easily forecastable in July and August, but that's life! Don't let's forget either, that UKMO was most confident earliest, about a quick (Friday onwards), start to HP influence. Our juat this morning serviced campervan is happy, and so will we be in Gloucestershire, Friday to Monday coming up!