William of Walworth

I've been out since 1 pm, and I was desparate for the 12z runs to show somne more positivity, possibly strengthening some UKMO hints from earlier (00z) that conditions would be reasonable enough in the South. Instead, I come back and prospects look like they've significantly worsened for next week. Glastonbury week. Any (SW-focussed, or any) reasurrance for us Glasto-goers? Anywhere? At all?

You're clearly not going anywhere near Glastonbury. Next week : literally the WORST week of the year (for us Somerset-goers) to be a washout (as currently threatened on latest runs)

Frosty : if even you, ever the optimist, is unable to mention anything ahead of Monday 29th June, then I greatly fear that next week is going to be a washout. Everywhere. J10 is already warning that his forcoming Glasto blog (expected around 9 pm tonight, Thursday) is likely to be X rated ...

UKMO seems least keen to me to bring the deeper/more trough-influenced weather further South next week? Other models appear more unsettled more widely. I'm still only on 00z runs though.

But for the last week of it it looks very likely (right now) to turn wetter or at least more showery. Glastonbury week is the week most in need (for 180,000 festival-goers) of being driest. Yet from some very settled FI outlooks for late June coming up prior to last weekend, changes since then have been big, and output now seems to show a massive amount of uncertainty. I have the Somerset mudbath fear just now, and I will have to wait a while before J10's next update in his Glasto blog. I am seriously in need of some reassurance for the SW at least. That ECM chart in Captain S's post above doesn't look in the least bit reassuring to me ...

Those anomolies above look truly grim for later next week. Might there be any hope of slightly more benign changes as we get further into next week? Haven't really seen much of the 00z output yet. Thanks. </Somerset mudbath fear> Really?

I'd bank that, given the less benign looking options for next week currently more likely on the other operationals. But JMA is surely a minority/more unlikely evolution?? than others.

All I want is for model runs to evolve in a less wet/more HP influenced/drier direction. For the SW at least! Still a lot of uncertainty.

Second of the two images you posted looks pretty unbenign to my eyes, for Saturday 27th (and I'm presuming thereabouts, either side of then). I really wish the 'extended period' you mention for Azores muscle-flexing could kick in a good bit sooner than that. But my reading of anomoly charts is still quite elementary-level -- any straws to clutch next week/weekend generally, for drier-weather preferrers**?? **(and needers of it, in the SW?)

Those Met Office snapshots still show HP influencing the South though (in line with Gibby's summary?) -- or am I reading Polar Maritime's post wrongly?

Bricking it at the moment. PLEASE don't go all pearshaped for next week, synoptics!?

Not properly synoptic, this, so apologies, but did anyone watch the Countryfile forecast tonight, about 7:50 pm, BBC1? Forecaster there, presumably basing his BBC forecast on UKMO projections (?), was wanting to place HP influence continuing closer to the UK (based West of it more than SW, but main HP centre pretty close) for the remainder of June. Countryfile forecasts as I recall, when they include synoptic modelling, tend to avoid going beyond next Friday from the broadcast date unless they have more confidence. For what little that's worth! </strawclutching>

Permission to rant please. Over the four days prior to some of the 00z runs (Friday 12/Saturday 13), pretty much ALL runs and anomolies seemed (to me) to be showing consistent High Pressure dominance, or at least influence, for the UK, for this coming week onwards, and into weeek 2 as well, that is the week starting Monday 22nd June -- Glastonbury week. And yes, before Saturday, I kept telling myself that FI was FI, but prospects prior to yesterday seemed in the vast majority of modelling to look pretty positive for the rest of June. Where the hell has all this operational variation and uncertainty suddenly come from? Charts seem all over the place at the moment. I'm in need of some improved runs, or at the least, some non-washout-focussed reassurance. I don't like messy either, but I don't really care about hot. I just want dry!

My hopes are the same as yours, Weston-super-Mare poster, but even more so. In our case hopes are focussed entirely on Glastonbury -- we'll be heading there early before the official festival starts (ie we're going down next weekend).

As far as my list above is concerned, I only left 1992 out because I wasn't there that year. Nor 1989, 1993 <hates self for missing 3 full on scorchers ... with massive parties going on all over site 24 hours in each one of those years ... or so I'm told by veterans ...>

That last anomoly chart posted by philnw above, looks slightly reassuring for more settled weather preferrers (especially in week 2!) Am I right? I struggle sometimes to interpret.

15th is great! Congratulations. In mine and festivaldeb's case, 19th and 18th respectively. But more respect to deb because her first one was in 1985 -- one of the worst mudbaths in Glastonbury history, and it still didn't put her off returning. If (as seems likely) there's no mudbath this year, that will up the total of non washout years to as follows, in my case : Sunny (mostly, and predominantly or completely dry) 11 (1984, 1994, 1995, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2013) Borderline/mixed : 4 (2004, 2005, 2011, 2014) Complete washouts : 3 (1997, 1998, 2007) So if my years are in any way representative, Glastonbury actually has a better weather record than many people think and this year, we hope and pray, will add to that.

Thanks so much for all the great research and work, J10. I'd even be saying this if the prospects were a a lot poorer.

People following just this thread may like Gibby's latest thoughts (8 am, Friday 12th June) in the Model Output Discussion thread :

As crew, we'll be onsite early (Sun 21st June and leaving late (Tues 30th June) but for now, there's every possibility that conditions should remain benign throughout. J10 said at the end of his most recent blog : which as things appear at the moment, looks a tad overmodest to me!. So long as complications don't emerge (please not!), there's a fair chance this year might resemble 2010 in niceness ... .... or (for oldschoolers) 1994 and 1995! <prays that current models/forecasts hold and don't downgrade>

Very sceptical about the wording ANYWEATHER uses to summarise that, I have to say. Possibilty there of a little bit of over-eagerness to ramp a downgrade of High Pressure influence? Eugene looks like he's being a tad more sensible here!

And again BANK! Us mid-Somerset goers (especially) in the last week of June will salute all the synoptic gods (and their high priests reading their runes and edicts here on Netweather). IF it all turns out to be true </religious sceptic>

BANK!

Brief glance at the BBC forecast just now and it looks like it has changed somewhat -- reflecting the models? BBC shows it likely to be pretty wet here in South Wales both tomorrow (afternoon onwards) and for a fair deal of Saturday. Dry Monday onwards though.

Looking good to even better than good there Frosty, and I'd BANK that like you would! But we have to hope there's not too much downgrade the nearer we get to week 2** ... <**Somerset goers' paranoia showing there ... > ETA though : J10's latest Glastonbury blog from today, full of anomoly-focussed and other technical analysis, might be well worth looking at (and positive!) for those generally interested in late June's prospects, as well as specifically .... https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4890-glastonbury-festival-2015-24-to-28-june-forecast-no-4/ The above not only of interest for festival-going people like me.