William of Walworth

I take your point TWS but on latest output, I'm actually expecting a fair amount of (humid) sunshine between the promised downpours next week, and the previous Bank Holiday weekend reminded us that High Pressure could mean a pretty cloudy High. But given that this is the Moan thread, it's now starting to shape up for a pretty wet week at times after Sunday for many. Peoples' excitement about thundery outbreaks leaves me cold .. I'd rather have a dull cloudy cool High personally!

Lets face it, any hopes of avoiding a washout (and I'm thinking of the Bank Holiday weekend itself as well as earlier in the week) look distinctly low at the moment for the majority of places. Can't see many signs from recent output of the trough/LP complex positioning itself further West, or further away at all for that matter ...

Feeling highly grumpy about recent model output in the main discussion thread -- the vast majority of recent output threatening a wet and unsettled week next week (albeit mainly not especially cold) My main fear is that these conditions will last into the Bank Holiday weekend, and that we are threatened with a stick around trough/LP that can't be shifted for the forseeable. Still time to hope(cast) for some sort of weakening of the unsettled/trough dominated stuff in time for Bank Holiday weekend, but precious few signs of this yet. Washout Bank Holiday w/e risk is high for now, and every time I check the updates, there's very little positive positive there, indeed most recent runs have shown downgrades from the previous. And Frosty isn't posting at all ATM, and Milhouse very little = i.e. no optimism around! Grrr!

That's what I'm thinking too. Smallish shifts in position and detail van alter UK surface conditions significantly. There've already been a fair few modelling shifts over the last few days and there'll be more. Later in May = all still to play for IMO.

Too much writing off of the whole of May going on here on the most recent models IMO. I'm watching this space VERY cautiously. Chances remain for more changes in details and positioning.

Completely understand why people are holding back on predicting far beyond Bank Holiday Monday. Current models are as far from ever from being nailed on beyond the short term .. Delighted that we can be confident of a pleasant BH weekend though ...

Still time for more switches in positioning and detail before the weekend. But in general I'm agreeing with the consensus on here right now -- High Pressure influence likely to be more transient/shortlived than yesterday's (overprogressive?) models were pointing towards (I've only scanned 00z and 06z output so far though) On the brighter side for the rain averse, the actual weekend into Monday still looking dry for most, and even quite pleasant in some more Southern locations.

Early signals suggest quite a cool or cold High for now, but all's in the detail and we'll see.

It's all about the exact positioning of the HP for next weekend (Bank Holiday w/e) isn't it? Devil's in the detail. No warmth to be expected most likely ... lack of rain to be welcomed though I suppose!

I'd be surprised if those 3 am maximum temperatures of -3C shown in SS's chart earlier don't get watered down in the end, that's VERY cold for beginning of May nighttime. Liking the look of building High Pressure into next (Bank Holiday) weekend, if that modelling verifies many of us could see pleasant daytime conditions -- albeit not spectacular or anything.

Out of my post-October hibernation! Glad I can remember my password. Thanks for all the recent analysis.

Might have to delay my imminent hibernation if those very benign-looking HP influenced conditions really do come off in October .... I've just been scanning some latest updates. For this immediate weekend, our very last official 'outing' of the summer, prospects even quite well South (Forest of Dean area), look likely to be a good deal drier than were once progged (earlier this week, Saturday in particular looked like it was going to be an absolute washout for a muuch broader ara in the South. Not nearly so much now, really). The outdoor pragmatist in me is happy, and IMO it follows a consistent pattern over a lot of the summer too -- 'downgrades' to strength/intensity of the majority of any threatened LP attacks the nearer you get to zero hours ...

Liking the tendancy on more recent output for that earlier risk of a washout for the upcoming weekend in parts of the South. to look noticeably less pronounced now.

Thanks for updates, which I've only had time to scan briefly. My personal interest is strictly short term -- up to this coming weekend. Which on some runs shows possible signs of becoming something of a washout? in parts of the W/SW ....wondering whether there might be some changes in the detail of this prospect over the next few days. Can only look at forthcoming runs. (We'll be in Gloucestershire, nr Lydney, for our positively final outing of the season before our tent and us head into hibernation!)

Yes I also agree with mushy, I too am expecting some chilly nights and early fog this weekend from these likely setups. HP strength does at this stage look as if sunshine would burn that off quite nicely in the daytime in most (?) places, but devil would be in the detail on that factor as has already been commented. Not complaining though -- for this time of year, models still pointing towards a very pleasant w/e

I take damianslaw's and Diagonal's points for sure, but another possible evolution would be more in the way of a N/S divide, or at least NW/SE divide (position of dividing line : anyone's guess!). Anything can happen that far out.

My moods can be dangerously dependent on the model output at times like this, but my current mood has cautiously taken a turn for the better. Chances of a washout/mudbath mini festival for my friends and I in rural Lincolnshire, next extended weekend (noon Thurs to Mon morning) now seem significantly diminished, yay!. May even be able to sit outside the beer tent judging by some of the charts posted yesterday and today ... But of course I'll have to continue to monitor between now and Weds, being a tad addicted like that. Please don't reverse yourselves, models!

I'll reply to my own post then by saying that it now looks like I posted that doomforecasting worry of a post somewhat prematurely as it turns out. Most current models right now pointing towards a much more benign/pleasant end of week ahead and with some possible actual warmth by the weekend itself.

Today's (ie Saturday's) model run developments lead me into actual hopecasting territory now, for next w/e ... was I so utterly foolish this morning then? We'll see! </hopecasting ... >

I'd say BANK** to the above for next w/e, there've been considerably less usable runs recently for those of us who'll be outdoors ... **Unless a trend is building for further HP encroachment in a week's timke, but that's foolish talk!

That ECM output looks severely dire in terms of a direct hit on the UK, but I suppose we'd better not rule out some version of it. Anxiously model watching for the Thurs 19th to Monday 23rd period (Lincs -- I've posted a question on the Yorks/Lincs regional thread about this.). The GFS above may not look too bad I suppose, if (like me) its less wet, less fierce weather you're after. Albeit nothing like the very HP dominated charts for the same period progged a few days ago.

Hi Yorks and Lincs folks. I'm heading to the Alchemy Festival (small one of about 2,000 mad hippies, party animals, live in vehicle types, dance and bands lovers) next THURSDAY (19th September). And I will be there until the morning of Monday 23rd. It's near Coningsby, about 25? miles from Lincoln. OK yes, utterly mad to be heding for my penultimate outdoor festival so late in the 'season' (our very last is in Gloucestershire, w/e of 28th September). But I would welcome some local words of wisdom on washout or not? prospects for the relevant period.. The current model output today (Friday 13th, unlucky for many!) looks pretty disturbed/disturbing, especially foir early next week, but also there seem to be big risks of that fierce rainy and galey looking Low Pressure clinging far too close for comfort near the East Coast, Any talk of High Pressure influence as far N and E as rural Lincs looks very faint at the moment. Especially not as early as Thursday 19th or even Friday 20th. But I suppose its not impossible that by Saturday 21st and Sunday 22nd, things might have improved. Your thoughts? Thanks ....

I think this post could be (?) a truly excellent summary of some earlier posts' warnings about seasonal Agendas! My own personal season, synoptic model-wise, absolutely stops after somewhere around about Monday September 30th. Have your Autumn, Winter or inbetween FUN after that, everyone, cos I'm unlikely to be back much until Spring once October starts ... But until then .... This very tail end of 'Summer' poster will 'agenda'-post and hopecast as much as I want for a reasonably non stormy, non rainy, non windy next weekend and the one after ... (Objective version of above : Obviously I remain far from optimistic at all for nice n dry, because the exceptionally volatile current 'output' realistically warns me not to be .... still, as many say, everything remains to play for in the short/medium term. For now ...)

As you all know! I want that powerful (and now undisputed) LP attack to shift away earlier rather than hang around,. One or two models still suggesting the possibility that HP MIGHT attempt to re=build as soon as next Thurs or Fri onwards. Can only hopecast that the slightly more benign models are correct, those wishes are contradicted or in part supported depending on which models you prefer. Last thing I want right now is for fierce winds and rain to be persisting in Eastern England (where I'll be) right into the weekend of the 21st. Could happen. Hoping not. Model watching very anxiously for the last two weekends of September ... (After early October -- you're all welcome to Autumn and Winter because I'll mostly be hibernating after that!)

For 26th or 27th September! Anything can happen ahead of that, and probably will. Not excluding some very autumnal looking lows I accept, many current signals do support this, but its all about tracking, intensity, timing, etc. As ANYWEATHER said, confidence on any detail, track of systems, etc much beyond this coming weekend even!, has got to be quite low.