chris pawsey
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The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards
chris pawsey replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Regional
I think that Shannon Entropy bird is having a right laugh up there!! Forecast is mental!! -
The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards
chris pawsey replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Regional
Looking at this evenings Icon (i have no idea how to insert pic from phone!!) tomorrows event doesnt look great for our region. What is the reliability of this model? -
The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards
chris pawsey replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Regional
Going by the met app it has upgraded... heavy snow for 2hrs tomorrow lunch time in Kenilworth Maybe they have seen something we haven't... roll on the 18z -
The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards
chris pawsey replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Regional
We have to hope the 850s are cold enough over the north sea for convective showers to stream west enough for the west mids, and then hope for a northerly correction on the channel low Thursday by my amateur eye! At least we had snow in December! Looks like south of the M4 may do very well... makes a change for them lot! -
The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards
chris pawsey replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Regional
Looking at the current setup, i think we will be very unlucky not to receive enough snow to hit the hills with sledges! Roll on the pub run for potential further upgrades... if that is possible!! -
The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards
chris pawsey replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Regional
@Cov87 in reply to your post from the mod thread, at present it looks like the south will get the most of the snow but to be honest, slight adjustments north could occur which will put us in the firing line! Predicting precipitation where and when at this juncture is near on impossible given the current setup #PUSB -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
chris pawsey replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just love your animations The Eagle. Would be great to see all main models animated side by side for each run. Keep up the good work!! -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
chris pawsey replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Marginal at best Especially in Walsall In all seriousness i have never seen such a peachy run in a very, very long time... if ever Let's hope the trend continues on future runs and this volatility settles down a little -
The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards
chris pawsey replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Regional
Didn't see that, and with the continual southern shift on the models we could be in the game. I fear though that the uppers and DP will not be playing ball! -
The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards
chris pawsey replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Regional
South East Birmingham snow shield is in full working order... disappointingly -
The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards
chris pawsey replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Regional
Current temp here 2.5°C and falling, dew point at -0.5°C -
The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards
chris pawsey replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Regional
Meto just updated warnings to go further east of our region. As far east as Northamptonshire and Leicester. A slushy cover of 1-3cm below 100m asl... but some areas will not see any. Personally, i think the latter but ice could be an issue -
Model output discussion - into 2018
chris pawsey replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Thats it then, great run... lets bank it!! But peps, its 1 run. No doubt we will all be all awaiting the pub run with baited breath and then wake up in the morning with toys and dummys everywhere! Nice trend to see but more runs needed -
The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards
chris pawsey replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Regional
I think the Kmnamxinator2000 must be struggling with the Christmas data loss and lack of balloons -
The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards
chris pawsey replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Regional
NW snow radar may have a blip, Meto now have heavy snow here until 3am. NW radar shows heavy precipitation north west of Birmingham heading south eastwards, very slowly -
The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards
chris pawsey replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Regional
Meto app says I will have heavy snow from 10pm until 3am, but looking at the NW snow radar I can't see where this is coming from?? -
The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards
chris pawsey replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Regional
Temp in Kenilworth has gone up slightly, 0.3° dew point 0.1° snow is heavy and steady, around 6-7cm on the ground -
The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards
chris pawsey replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Regional
Just looked at the NW storm radar. No lightening strikes recorded... yet ? -
The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards
chris pawsey replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Regional
Woke at 4 this morning... not sure why as I love my bed. Perhaps I love snow more! Quite heavy here now with around an inch, radar shows heavier stuff on the way, just waxing the sledges ready for when the kids get up! Bring it on and enjoy fellow midlanders! -
The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards
chris pawsey replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Regional
Circle inside the rectangle? Loving the colouring MKN, what does orange mean? Not that I give a dam as I am in the red scribble... and what does red scribble mean?? Sorry, just got back from the pub. -
The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards
chris pawsey replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Regional
In the game for now, models have been like a yoyo with this "slidergate" scenario, too gar north, too far south, i'll be glad when its at T0z let's hope we all do get a snowmageddon! Was supposed to be going to winter wonderland on Sunday, hope it' our own winter wonderland here!! Sledge wax at the ready! -
Glamping in Croyde, North Devon from tomorrow night... the safari tent looks sound, and concreted in... but it's a tent... more worried about flying debris!
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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17
chris pawsey replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
For newbies 1knt = 1.151mph so gusts just short of 70mph