chris pawsey

Temp here in kenilworth is currently 3.8°C and dp is 2.8°C and dropping, Rain still but I'll be looking at my brand spanking new LED lamppost this evening... snow by 5pm by my reckoning... Bring it on!

And also dew points maybe favourable. The Euro4 shows snow, could be a surprise for some

So fellow midlanders, the cold set to arrive tomorrow, precipitation is still in the balance as to where exactly it will fall and how much, I would suggest the main area to look for in terms of significant fall will be the front moving southwards on Friday morning, a slight westwards shift could bring a great deal for swathes of the area!! Bring it on, new LED lamppost has been installed, looking forwards to staring at it for hours and hours... it's been nearly 4 years of no snow! Let's enjoy it while it lasts!! Regards, CP

I ehco your thoughts and reasoning Dusk. Mine was edited to extract my dismay with regard to the aforementioned. Enough to said before I get barred. I love this forum and I'm attached to it daily and I do not want to (and have been asked politly not to) mention it further.

Can't post charts from my phone unfortunately but the GFS at 216hrs shows -8 850 uppers from a NW/N direction, if precipitation was associated with this would it produce snow to lower levels? Forgive my inept knowledge... still learning... after 9 years of model watching... eeekkk! Straw clutching!

... now, eyes down to the 18z, let's hope the trends continue for the upcoming NW/N next week. Rant over!! Lets hope for some nationwide snow in the forthcoming week... or so

Dear all, some truly great charts for coldies this evening. Let's hope these trends continue, after all its the trends that count! Let's hope that the start of 2017 brings the winter everyone craves.

There is a chance, we just have to hope the trend is picked up. Glosea5 still maintains the blocked last week's of Dec, let's hope the other models jump on board the polar express (not daily express!!). Let the GFS lead the way... can't believe I said that!! There is hope coldies!!

Can someone answer if at all possible? How often does Glosea update? I presume it is a long range and respected model (although new) only for Meto eyes and it's predicting a blocked 2nd half of Dec... when does it update? Also what are the verification stats of the said model? Thanks in advanced, Chris

I will await a trend... then comment. Quite happily sit on the fence and get splinters in my @ss .

Dear all, Rarely post in this thread in fear of being shot down as I'm a pure amateur. But a very long time lurker. Today's models have thrown us allsorts... and not the liquorice variety. Earlier alot of members posting "the hunt for cold... it's over for dec" and I believed them due to the fired up jet that is predicted due to the cold flooding into the US. But then the GFS then throws... a potential cold shot from the east. I really hope this is the case but learning from the past we need to see trends, future runs to back up this one run, alot can change in the space of a short space of time. There is alot of "winter" remaining, patients is a virtue and eventually we will get what all us coldies want. Keep up all the good work to all the seasoned and we'll established posters, you know who you are,your educational knowledge is very much appreciated and digested. Many thanks

Hi fellow midlanders... I've asked santa (the wife) for an amateur weather station for Christmas, can anyone please recommend one? I'd like to start adding my imbyism to this valuable and educational thread Thanks in advanced Chris

Is that an oooooo face

Might sound a daft question (from a long time lurker) but one I've pondered for some time. Can someone please tell me why a z is on the end of every time caption on all the models? Just curious... Thanks in advanced

Will the ppn up north pivot down to us before it fizzles out? Looking at the arpege 12z suggests it will be dropping south but turns to rain... could it be snow if the synoptics fall right?

Really big flakes here in Kenilworth, south of Coventry. Been like this for about an hour. Settling on cars and grass only but lovely to watch

As much as I would like to see these charts verify I fear that these snowy charts will get watered down due to the amount of variables involved when forecasting snow... like all the ppn charts have as of late. It will no doubt go down to the wire and we'll all be lamp post watching, some areas might do well, others will be disappointed like the many times this winter. I do however have hope that we see a flake or 2 this week.

Going down the depol office to get his name changed... or he's has a heart attack!! Big turnaround in the models over the last few days... the next few will be interesting! Still hope for coldies

Love it... That's 2 days in a row now it's been showing snow for mothers day... trends... trends... it's got to be a nailed on cert! Cancelling the visit to the in-law now although I fear she may purchase snow chains for her mobility scooter I readiness on the back of this chart. Keeping my trap shut and fingers crossed

Still on for mothers day then... trends, trends! Please, please, please!! Give me an excuse???

Amazing... out of all the charts in the world ever I would like this to verify... please??? A near nationwide snow event for mothers day will get me out of going to see the mother in law

Not buying it just now... need to see this trend continue before I get over excited. We've had so many amazing charts in recent past only to downgrade... upgrade... downgrade to cold rain. I will be watching with anticipation but not jumping for joy yet and certainly not reaching for the sledge wax.

That's at 75hr, move on a few frames to 81hr and shaky is right with the front stalling and fizzing out over the midlands, the roller coaster continues. This I'm sure will go down to a now casting event with more ups and downs to come ☺

Just a pea sized snowball by the morning I'll be happy! 97asl though here so unlikely but fingers crossed

Looks like it's stalling over Birmingham. Fingers crossed but I think unlikely