Neilsouth
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Posts posted by Neilsouth
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A few snow flakes in the wind here
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Just now, throwoff said:
Having messages from people convinced Medway about to get snow and I just don’t see it…
Upper air temps -10 -> -14
Convergence zone
Shower Risk
etc
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ICON has upgraded for snow potential for tomorrow, South East. 1-3CM widely! Again this will be a nowcast situation, so wake up, check radar tomorrow and see if you're the lucky or unlucky person to get snow or not
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6 minutes ago, Bogman said:
Had enough of winter now, roll on spring warmth.
But we haven't had Winter??
It's been mild and wet throughout
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How things have changed, as I said before a week ago people were forecasting very little in the way of snow, if at all! Air was too dry etc
Yet here we are!
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18 minutes ago, stewfox said:
BBC are suggesting some accumulations now for South East. Will be down to window watching for you lucky folk down south. But you don't get settling snow at 5c,od
Want a laugh?
Met Office - Rain/Sleet/Snow mix, Wintry Showers
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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:
They look great ...
Let's hope the worm has turned and upgrades follow this evening..
We've already had upgrades in the short term which a lot of people are not talking about :)
-12 uppers moving across the south east, weather warning for snow and it's already sleeting now! - Go back a week and people were expecting hardly anything because the high was too high :p
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It's looking even colder than first thought for Monday "Small pocket of -14 uppers into the extreme south east on the latest 06z ukmo". I always say for us in Kent, and towards London :p That for snowfall I prefer -10 uppers or below. Usually a good start point for snow streamers to set up. Keep checking the radar tomorrow! ( To that one poster, will get Swindon get snow? Just check the radar :p )
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10 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
The theme remains generally. There’s no upgrade or downgrade at day 8+, just variations. Like I said last week, we won’t resolve the detail for midmonth until into next week
BFTP
Case and point look at the upgrades in the short term for the east and south east...
" DRY " " High pressure is too high " people said, and here we are with rain/sleet and possible snow tomorrow! - I do wonder if after all this we get a true scandi high down the line rather than a more dominate greenland high?
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Getting the odd snow flake amongst the rain here!
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2 minutes ago, snowray said:
Way more showery activity this evening around the SE than what was showing on the met office app, think it will be the same on Monday.
Not just that, but now reporting sleet!
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Does anyone know what model the BBC use for their forecasts? As looking at the EC/GFS/UKMO I don't see a low pressure coming up from the south increasing temps, and later "Wintry Showers" from the north?
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20 minutes ago, Jason M said:
2. Impressive cold pool early next week. If only air pressure wasn't so high, it could have dumped a whole lot of snow!
Well there's also a chance of troughs and polar lows in the mix, with such extreme cold further north!
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Day after day there were a few people here posting the Ensembles with much delight, but again as I said before they can go just as wrong the next day, and so they have! An almost complete u-turn!
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3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
Very good ensemble mean so I’m afraid the “winter is over” party has been cancelled.
After two unbelievable GFS det runs it’s not a surprise we’ve had a slightly less good one. Det is also on the milder side of the ensemble pack.
Why do people keep posting the ensemble mean as that too changes as much as the models do? Such as in the case of the 18Z GFS
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7 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:
I'd argue that it's clear that now that the minor SSW has occurred, the models are handling the -VE NAM imprint very well. The development of a minor SSW can still imprint down onto the trop via wave reflection and if displacement was enough for an Arctic reversal I suspect. So the EHF still pushing into the Strat from the remaining eddy-driven jet in the Trop along w/the large waves pushing down the temperature processing, the minor SSW is still having a wave impact on the Trop because of that reflection rather than wavebreaking because of the T-S-T setup that caused the minor SSW in the first place. That appears to deepen the -VE NAM imprint already on the Trop and the surface response to that looks to be quite strong. Major SSW's have a tripole of -VE NAM interactions and though this isn't a major SSW... Probably not but if you've never had a dream, then you've never had a dream come true.
So it's no wonder we're seeing what we are on the models.
Explain to a noob like myself, are you saying that as it's a minor SSW it's why we are seeing charts like this, but if it was a major SSW we wouldn't be?
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Just now, Catacol said:
Pfft. This is getting ridiculous. Getting bored of all the constant north easterly charts and anti-zonal flow. I'm hankering after some good old fashioned +NAO and a mild south westerly feed.
Not.
Well one thing I've noticed which has been different to most winters, is not just the rain but how far south these low pressure systems are! So much so they tend to cross the south and pound so many areas with flooding! Here's to a long dry spell with hopeful winter wonderland in the near future too
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Hope we don't get stuck in no-mans land for weeks with the high over us!
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You lot do make me laugh... "LOL" " WOZERS" "BOOOOM", come on all level head! We still don't know how this weekend is going to pan out with that high pressure, further north the better!
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1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:
That 15th date again!
Wasn't it the 8th originally? I mean I do hope the high does move North/North West! However I'd also hope for some dry weather! UKMO deffo looking meh compared to even this morning
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Just now, MJB said:
That's a bit of an over reaction if ever i have heard one ..................Disaster LOL
How isn't it? It's been at the top of the pile for a good week, while others have gone for a UK high. Now it's following the others
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1 minute ago, Derecho said:
That's a BIG u-turn for the UKMO, bit of a disaster with the model to be honest.
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Just now, Ali1977 said:
Yeah, winding up that PV east of Greenland ready to unwind it south around Xmas Eve!!
Looks MUCH stronger via the 12Z
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Considering the high pressure at the moment and then the possible greenland high, I'm expecting a Siberian high pressure to become a real feature down the line. Although not till end of Jan/Feb!