lorenzo

No chance, avoid them at the gym at all costs ! Did notice the scale was slightly different with the monthly composite having a higher range, was thinking more about the geography of the anomaly, with heights concentrated more on the Kara vs East Siberian sea. Either way the vortex is the important part of the puzzle, and it's bang on.

Re: Weaker vortex and Wave 2, Recretos made some excellent analysis on this very point a couple of posts back. Looking at Chiono's very first post and the composite for December and in comparison with December to date, could we be a little bit further on than predicted at this stage? With the vortex tightening wondering if it is using up all it's winter juice more quickly than usual? Looking at the zonal wind profile however, it certainly isn't messing around. Next few charts show the heatflux and wave 2 peaks in current output and a gif starting at the top of the strat. down to show there impact. Think we may need an anomalous Siberian ridge or any kind of Greenland ridge to eventually get in about this Winter's vortex.

Model thread into winter is the Hunt for Cold thread, which is fine as this seems to be what the majority of folks like in Winter - the potential for Frosts and copious snowfall. Where it gets tricky to read is in times like now where there is a bit of a N-S divide, our latitude helping by keeping us on the cold side of the jet and subject to colder air and more traditional winter synoptics. Can totally understand the frustration felt by folks further south, especially when that eurotrash high is sloping around. I think the upcoming active Atlantic phase will be enough to keep everyone pre-occupied. Guess what I am trying to say is that this is where the regional thread is brilliant as we can ramp away about storms and possible polar maritime incursions in here without grating anyone else ! Definitely into a cooler airmass now, feeling quite sharp out there today when the wind picks up. More wintry element to the higher clouds also.

Thursday beginning to look pretty extreme. Many ensembles deepen this low to 935-940mb http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-15-1-84.png http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-9-1-84.png http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-11-1-84.png http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-14-1-84.png http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-18-1-84.png GFS 18z has now trended toward the 12z ECM and another uberlow on Xmas day. WIld, wild charts, odds on a white xmas falling if these came to pass.

Hopefully the fu Berlin will get their stuff sorted out tomorrow. Looked about on the web and it looks like the material from ECM is not available anywhere else. Some poleward EP Flux on the stratospheric plot on the JMA Page was the most interesting thing I could find today.

Strongest part of jet perfectly positioned to engineer that low.

Amazing pic Cheggers - great find. Whilst GFS wants to take us back to the euro high solution, tonight the ECM serves up this.. 913mb..

Unbelievable.. Braer Storm all over again.

Got time to watch this programme today. http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b03l5lvh/One_Wild_Winter_in_the_Scottish_Mountains/ Brilliant and very poignant, really worth watching if you missed it earlier in the week. Good to see Scotster in there too along with some great footage of the highlands.

Met Office warnings updated just now for this one.. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=dg&from=rss&sn=D1C719B8-6F05-EE51-9E6A-F5CEC8BA6355_1_DG&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&tab=map

Met Office warning out for Thursday. Very quick off the mark with this.. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=dg&from=rss&sn=D1C719B8-6F05-EE51-9E6A-F5CEC8BA6355_1_DG&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&tab=map

Windspeed starting to pic up a little out there now. The nearest LP reading 955mb on the latest surface plot. K5 Data http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=64045 33.8 ft wave heights !! Hurricane force 12 on the shipping forecast. Wild.

A trio of sub 960mb lows in the latest surface plot. UKMO for comparison. Hurricane force winds into Bailey and accompanied by many more warnings.. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/shipping_forecast.html#All~Bailey

GFS relentless with the uber lows.. Continues firing the out on the 06z. Wonder where the UKMO and ECM will see things this evening, another 'lively' week. Mean Jet at day 10 from ECM

Found this earlier and it is a great site, extremely hypnotic, so HC beware http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-5.98,39.26,512 Click the word Earth and a menu opens for other levels in the atmosphere, you can also click and drag the globe around.

An interactive globe to highlight wind flow. Great site. http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-12.66,43.60,512

Not to my knowledge, ECM server needs a kick now and again..! Found this though.. http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-2.93,84.73,512

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IFOMIDVA2&day=14&year=2013&month=12 Faroes dropped to 935mb as that system passed North of the country. Amazing reel on yr no a trio of weather bombs. http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa.html

No escaping the weather.. just when you think you have had enough for one day and try to get some zzzzzs

Just when I had thought, that's enough weather for one day.. Couple of distant rumbles, possibly waking up the residents of Fife about now..

Little while back put together an MEI and GWO plot for the first half of December. Though it best to re-visit with re-analysis. Updated through until 11th December. Not a great correlation, the cold outbreak into CONUS has verified pretty well, the West Atlantic ridge which on the composite, and noted at the time, seemed a little progressive it did not establish, everything rotated slightly further east on the composite for our side of the hemisphere, the cold troughing for re-analysis right in our locale versus Russia. We also didn't see any Siberian heights, the North Pacific ridge a lot stronger than the composite dates, however this Aleutian High has been one of the strongest on record for 2013 as a whole. Composites for YTD and November to Date However, can see some similar themes in the general pattern of both, so not totally disheartened. Conclusion and learning point here for me is that in December vortex rules the roost and any significance from analogs can be used but only if weighted to consider the current state of play in the strat. Any thoughts welcome !

It's a trend to colder but impossible to nail due to the paths of the lows, when they initiate, how fast they travel across the country, the direction of travel, how much cold air is dragged into the low. FWIW couple of charts from Net Wx Extra GFS. 23rd looking like another windy day.

Some of the strongest looking wave 2 activity so far this year on the ECM plots this morning, monitoring - not a prediction.. Zonal wind profile appears to be tightening. Way up at the top of the strat. a nice run across 1hPa culminates in this plot at day 10, context provided at 30hPa. GLAAM forecast from 5 days ago has trended away from Phase 2 Nina state back towards the origin, little sign of frictional torque building and developing an EAMT, not sure where this will go from here to be honest having seen this plotted with certainty to move into Phase 2 then on through 3 - 4. Either way, indicative of pattern change, which I guess will take 7-10 days to settle in and then we can take a read on where it is headed through January, some thoughts on twitter mention the Pacific Jet cranking up will keep track of these. The 30hPa chart is the key one for me, it's a seemingly immovable object this year!

89mph highest gust recorded so far, albeit way up in the mountains Aonach Mor, 1130m. Uist and Tiree at just above sea level 68-70pmh. Midweek sees a variety of solutions on the low. GFS Hi Res UKMO/GEM/ECM - GEM for once NOT going off on one and the more relaxed of the three. GFS 06z Out into the mid-range the trend continues towards Christmas week. GFS, and in particular the control run, along with a couple of the wilder ensembles ensure us weather geeks will have plenty to keep us entertained over Xmas. Edit - fixing charts

Another big low for mid week, certainly cooled down back from unseasonably mild to seasonal overnight. Different interpretations of the low from the models at 00z, GEM for once rather calm looking. ECM / UKMO / GEM GFS 06Z Christmas eve still going for the uber low on GFS this time held back in the Atlantic. Control run maintains Braer status. Great to have some explosive output to follow in the run up to Christmas Day, the GEFS ensemble is simply loaded with storms for the 25th. These 2 examples on the more extreme end of things. Even whilst at 240 hrs, the consistency is there with the trend established, that is 60 hours now of similar output. Lively model watching. Aonach Mor leading the gusts today at 89mph, at altitude. Tiree 68mph at 12m. Trampolines for Christmas....