lorenzo

One for the road... Sinai & Sphinx Caption Competition.. What do you reckon this camel is thinking....??

Looking at the surface plot on meteo our low is just a meagre little dot in a big ocean, about to undergo some rapid transformation and a 40mb bomb in the next 18 hrs. 987mb > 947mb by 1800z Sat, taking evening fax from Met Office into consideration. Latest Sat Image Loop this when you get tomorrow morning - will be worth a watch.. http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

18z GFS is really firing up on all cylinders, couple of charts from the model thread here.. Mid Week looks like things are getting kind of sporty.. Evening Met Office Fax for tomorrow shows the system having bombed. This is currently 18 hrs away. a 40 mb drop awaits... Incoming on the brilliant yrno sat run. Pub Run serves a Vortex Xmas, and it has been something of a trend this week, GFS in mid-long range has been like a dog with a bone going for a cold incursion over Xmas. Control run has been on NCEP Xmas Night out and had a few sherries..

Looking through the ensembles the 18z op something of an outlier, question being will the pub run op be leading the ensemble pack or is something like the mean more realistic. The control run is also up to Christmas craziness here and delivers the PV for Xmas.

All that is visible on the output at present is a swathe of Met Office Warnings. Extremely active storm track, tomorrow the evening fax bombs the system to 947mb. Sunday's system travelling farther north has an even stronger core. Sat / Sun Out into mid-week as per other charts posted already, a really serious windstorm. Pressure gradient from the south coast to the Grampians spanning some 46-48mb. This from the 900hPa chart, 108mph peak. ECM mean jet profile - UK firmly in the firing line. Explosive model watching, almost like a switch flipped and the Atlantic slammed into full gear, pretty dizzying compared to the meandering euro high of the last week or so.. Fascinating to watch, dreading the hyperbole in the media from the usual suspects, also hate to think this gives any sort of credence to the 'sources' used by some of these papers.

Pressure ensemble for the Faroe Islands right on that corridor of systems. Wow.

Thanks for the link scotster, look forward to watching that, now that monopoly of telly by masterchef concludes !

Okay from the 18z pub run Ensemble - bombs away Three of the most extreme projections, general track is in place, another 8 similar in that run either further North or less explosive. This evening Fax from Met office and 12z ensemble. Going to be another amazing satellite reel on yr no from this one.

With the strong Polar vortex getting a lot of bad press with respect to the current output, thought it only fair to highlight the site below and the mechanics going on in the Stratosphere, this being one of the only animation sites online shows you how good Recretos videos are. The vorticity charts for different layers of the stratosphere are sometimes posted from the Berlin site. On Andreas Dornbrack's site, linked from Berlin page there is a run through diagram of this in motion. Link should be for 600k others are available down to 400k. Completely hypnotic and gives a great representation of the complexity involved as the vortex shifts across the pole. Another great feature is the ability to loop the warming in the higher strat. allowing you to flick through heights to assess propagation.

18z thankfully tracks this latest bomb NW of the country. Rapid deepening 983mb through to 951mb in 24 hours. Comparison in decent agreement.

Couple of others from the same timeframe following on from LS post, this with the Atlantic view. Jet mean and control run 500hPa anomaly and also t850hPa anomaly. Couple of other tempting charts from Huug Van Den Dool site - cracking name that !! Pretty nice charts too if you like Greenland highs Just got to complete a Deadliest Catch grind through this positive NAO spell and fingers crossed the wait will all be worth it later on.. still lots going on to monitor within the reliable wrt. to the RACY systems bombing on the Jet. Edit - add ECM mean at 96 hrs. ECM mean charts Now on Netweather http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ecmens;sess= Also the postage stamps are back for folks who want to look through the entire run.

At work so cannot post charts, the 12z GEFS panel is worth a look for over the weekend, some truly insane systems projected within the perturbation suite. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=102 GFS spectacular at winding up low pressure systems, however many similar runs in this selection.

Great link, really mild, feels like late Autumn never mind December !!

Hope you were oot with the camera HC, always like the amazing pics.

Think Joe B has been following the activity on the 30hPa CPC plot as this is included in his tweet. Not sure if there is anything else making him so positive about how the strat will unfold. Still warming on the edges of the vortex, and it is looking solid, the zonal wind profile is frightening, hence my call to send in the nukes. ECM at day 10 and it is ramping along at 100 ms-2. Temps from early in GFS run then FI. Though these were worth sharing in the spirit of the festive season and in celebration of being bathed in African southerly air. EC32 / weeklies / monthlies - yes they have three names, for final week of December. Ensemble 2 please from here, perhaps a displacement. The block attempts this throughout the run, but it really is the vortex that is in charge here, no doubt. Edit ; Sorting images.

Thought I would have a quick look and see how the MJO was getting along.. and BOM evidently doesn't enjoy this set up either, it's gone to sleep, or maybe just can't be bothered plotting things in the circle of doom for another 20 days or so.. It's a strong euro high, a rather relentless ECM Ens run also way out to 360 shows very weak attempts at extension to Scandi, and even weaker attempts at retrogression. The control run here and the GFS / ECM heights. ECM spins up a monster low in the Pacific out at day 10, one to keep an eye on. Looking at the AO, the GEFS with the most positive run of the season. ECM asking some questions after the 18th. So while there is no point in denying the current malaise from our limpet high. Still things to watch.

It's just cruel seeing that - they are getting an utter pasting !!!

Okay here is an idea for someone before the ECM comes out this evening. In all seriousness, dull as dishwater output on the model runs, each to their own for weather preference, but it doesn't get much more lifeless than this !!

Derek the weather on Twitter pointing out source of southerly air for Wales is Morocco...... For Scotland southernmost source - Mauritania via the Western Sahara !!

Average temperatures, grey, overcast, derich, drizzly, dull - What's not to love? Has to be the most uninspiring, boring, lifeless, pointless weather you can get! Ach well, time for a Sunday Sesh !

Haven't seen the strat time series for a while, be nice to have a crystal ball.... Another way of looking at the Wave activity we keep searching for on the Berlin plots. OPI prediction A little more technical info on how the calculation is made ( helps if you have google translate..!).. http://www.centrometeotoscana.it/forum/index.php?topic=7364.0 Very much reminds me of one of Ed's good analogies for things the one about dripping in oil, can't remember it all ! Gist being eventually the Wave 1 activity culminates to produce an effect. Looking so far at the Wave 1 action on the plot above and comparing to the NWP Archive shows how important getting the blocking in the right place is.

Well it looks like a period of sustained positive NAO / AO with the classic harbinger of doom set up polar vortex hammering away at Greenland, zero shredding of systems at the Greenland tip, oh and locked in for 10 weeks, that would be February 14th btw. Hmm, can't see that happening, although can see this part of winter having a despondent effect on everyone.. Looking for cheer in the models, at the NH view both ECM and GFS have indications of weak High Pressure building over the the pole, during these runs there are also subsequent Aleutian lows. Can we get an Aleutian low anchored? Next 6 days also sees the main hemispheric driver the negative EPO move back to neutral, which will shift the pattern around, so whilst looking like a simple case of Greenland Vortex / Azores, there are other things to keep an eye on . The period of positive NAO was well predicted last week, and is still on course to be roughly the same as predicted, waning towards the 20th of the month, the control run from ECM again at either extreme of the ensemble set. It's positive for a period, but not rampantly so peaks at +2 deviations and the mean is more neutral. From the viewpoint of pure meteorological advance, this is also interesting , whilst it doesn't give everyone a blockbuster Greenland High / Easterly, it continues to validate the predictions put forward by the OPI. The ever loveable GEM has another take on things at day 10, am sure easier on the eye this morning than some of the other output.

ECM has hints of something on the Wave 2 plots, however this dissipates by day 10, still have seen these build day on day also, so worth keeping an eye on. The 30hPa plot below gives a good perspective of the other warming we have been tracking. Whether this is remains in the surf zone ( Ed can clarify if this is correct use of that term) is also worth keeping an eye on. Hints of something down the line perhaps. Found this on Joe D'Aleo blog last night, a nice depiction of the QBO / Solar base states & the JMA plot of 30hPa temps With such a concentrated vortex can't hep thinking we need that Asian MT event, frictional torques not supportive, a shift in GLAAM required. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltauf.90day.gif A case of patiently observing just now.

Ian, Please can you provide some clearer analysis or discussion to explain your view point. Or, it will just mean anyone can pick any chart and say right once we get to 264 on the GFS its nailed, or once we get to 144 on UKMO its a long way back, or that 300 chart on CFS is likely. It's cherry picking. It's clear you have a reason for repeatedly writing such 'long way back from there' statements, however until anyone actually knows why....we will never be in a position to either counter or support your thoughts. FWIW, wave 2 activity in the strat is looking interesting this morning, the slower jet profile at 168 on ECM will probably re-appear on the 12z, so long way back from wherever that is, I don't think this will be the case. Anyway hopefully you can enlighten us..

Morning all, bit wild out there today then ! Stay safe. Away to try and get a train which may be either running slowly, delayed or cancelled - Scotrail very informative !! Very strong gusts here, lights flickering a lot. A proper hoolie.