lorenzo

BUS for GWO and GLAAM, Nick Schiraldi has an experimental product that updates using the GEFS output. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html

There is a fantastic Earthquake Thread here which is updated regularly by a few members, may be of use to folks wishing to monitor activity http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/62309-general-volcanic-activity-thread/page-91

More interesting model output now as models look to shuffle the Northern Hemisphere deck. MJO and GLAAM and strat wave activity all providing interest for January. Had a mad day, windscreen wipers all of a sudden stopped working whilst overtaking a Wickes lorry on the M.8 on the way to work, seriously don't recommend driving about with no windscreen wipers in this weather .. Sorted now, think a couple of beers to relax this evening are in order !!

Try these ones, http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/neatl.html this has the WV image http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/neatl/wv-l.jpg Also this site is good http://eumetrain.org/eport/euro_12.php?width=1366&height=768&date=2013122712&region=euro

Looks pretty much on track with predicted I think, not looked at satellite closely though. Afternoon Fax.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/georgemonbiot/2012/jan/26/weather-forecasters-daily-mail

Still don't get why the ECM weeklies are subject to bad press ? It's just model output and the best we have that science can offer at present?

Good questions, need some re-analysis or verification figures. Too confusing for me, would be good if the strat. charts had graphs similar to the usual model verification ones. Perhaps Recretos can tell us more.. There are these charts on the CPC page for GFS, but not really monitored them closely enough to look for trends. Temps Zonal Winds

RE : Map 4 8-10 day means to compliment your great artwork Nick, hints of Map 3 above in the ECM ensemble suite, and as SK pointed out this is where the ECM has been misleading.

The wave activity excitement on ECM, I cannot buy into yet, have developed a healthy distrust of the ECM this year, to dig out another phrase, jam tomorrow with respect to the EP Flux. Big Wave Activity but serving to concentrate the vortex and it appears to reform as robust as ever, absorbing everything. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_WAVE2_MEAN_OND_NH_2013.gif Some GFS charts out at day 10. 10hPa 30hPa So, are we looking at a January with the vortex ruling the roost, or, are we going to get continued wave activity chipping away at it with the current Wave 2 and Wave 1 having opened the door, like to think that if any MJO assistance is going to occur the EC32 will begin to see it on today's weekly.

Morning All and Happy Boxing Day. Pretty cold overnight last night with a wee bit of frost this morning, minimum temps as of 0600. More active weather inbound today as this train of lows fuelled by that strong jet continues. Current Fax and surface obs. put this low in the mid-Atlantic at around 968mb, with another 25mb drop expected as the bombogenesis continues. The low maturing and reaching a depth of 943mb by midnight. Maintains good strength also as it approaches the UK. ECM / GFS / UKMO - for around mid-day tomorrow. UKMO Fax shows the centre of the low in comparison to our Xmas Eve / Xmas Day visitor not being as far North of the country, meaning that the windfield may have an impact to areas further south this time. Gust profiles Couple of images from satellite of #Erich (think that's the name for this one). More weather warnings to keep an eye on, feel really sorry for areas already impacted by flooding more rain inbound, good snow potential showing also overnight on the NMM. Enjoy the nice clear crisp weather today - the Atlantic washing machine / Snawbag Jnr is inbound..

Packaging is like some kind of twisted revenge imparted by the nation of China for sneaking off with a couple of their pandas.

Very Merry Xmas folks... ( here we go again....) !! http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-3-1-60.png http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-12-1-60.png http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-15-1-60.png http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-16-1-60.png http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-17-1-60.png

Seasons Greetings Roger. This article may be of interest to you re: pressure readings. http://uhi-mahara.co.uk/view/artefact.php?artefact=43030&view=1258

This link is useful BUS for the KNMI Satellite reports, hover over the icons for a brief description of each item picked up on satellite. http://www.knmi.nl/satrep/latest.htm The latest obs. is an absolute rammy ! LOL! On the way into the main low there is Jet Fibre, Cb Cells, Cb Clusters and also what looks like comma cloud on the yr.no image, these all getting wrapped into the core of the low. So one centre with lots going on in it ! Out to the southwest a whole army of the same, and the tail on the whole system swinging down into the continent delivering a MCS to Spain.

Sub 500 dam air across half the country too... !

Just spied this on the beeb site, apologies if already posted earlier and missed it. Stuff being on that plane ! http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25510819

Getting very lively here now, trees out the back are creaking away and wind is roaring through, can hear bins knocking about and the wind whistling through.

It really should be legal to tranquilize kids on Xmas Eve, manic doesn't quite cover it, add into that a teething 8 month yr old, carnage , all in zzzz and looking forward to the frenzied excitement of Xmas morning. Re: Model Thread, I remember first finding this forum and registering then not posting much, then coming back to it and asking GP a dumbass question which he dismissed in a one liner, I thought, right really need to understand what the hell he is going on about, it took a fair time before I would even dream of posting in there, simply due to the massive learning curve involved, and especially when you are new to a subject and there is so much great analysis going on. It really is like opening up Pandora's Box when you don't know anything at all, let alone deciphering which posters to follow more closely. That's after figuring out the wealth of material (models) to review to get a handle on things. It is exhilarating when there is a real hunt for cold on, and the GFS churning out 4 times a day keeps the soap opera ticking over, soon becomes quite addictive. You pretty much learn something new everyday on the forum. We all end up weary eyed model watchers by the end of a Winter season that's for sure. The technical and strat. threads to me hold interest as they are away from the 'mainstream' in meteorology, although certainly becoming more readily referenced over the last two years. Also it's great to see atmospheric science deliver new methods, such as the SAI ( Snow Advance Index) or OPI (October Pattern Index) and test these against forecasting the medium to long range. Blawin a Hoolie here this evening, strongest period of sustained gusts all day, better late than never ! Round about 960mb here and low maintains it's depth at 934mb, seemingly in not much of a hurry to move off NNE.

Not long to wait for the next storm to chase #Erich this time - Another wonderful name from the FU Berlin folks.. Would be nice if UKMET had a similar scheme then we could get some colloquial cyclone names.. Wonder how this one is shaping up on the still vigorous jet profile, soon find out on the 12z..

Great Blog Post here from the Capital Weather Gang contrasting recent climatology with historic set up. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/12/24/arctic-warming-jet-stream-coupling-may-portend-another-winter-of-extreme-storms-and-cold-air-outbreaks/

Nice looking MJO Plot from the UKMA - control run and UKME - Ensemble run (shaded). ECM still not keen on the 6-7-8 orbit, perhaps reflected in the latest weekly? GEFS however is. Phase 6 analogs Phase 7 analogs And if UKMO delivers on it's projection with a sustained period of time in Phase 8, analog has a significant ridge which may be the straw that breaks the camels back as far as the vortex is concerned..

Beauty of an image from http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/

Yay - nice fat heavy snowflakes here now.

Just another breezy day ! Previous windstorms this month have packed a stronger punch from an IMBY perpsective, however clearly still very strong winds to come further North and Northwest. Looking through the Norway sat loop. Looks like the parent low used up a lot of it's 'oomph' absorbing / interacting with the other sister low overnight, whether that is a reasonable enough explanation for the final depth of the system - who knows. The morning Fax highlights a further area of Low Pressure directly south of Greenland, and the mass of cold stratospheric air deflected further south, vs immediately funnelling into the main low. Looking lively on the radar and a few Cb visible on Sat rep latest report. Mon the Snaw..