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casparjack

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Everything posted by casparjack

  1. casparjack
    Yeah, because if it showed cold there would be a 118.76% chance of it being correct!!
  2. casparjack
    There seems to be a little consensus this moring from ECM and GFS, they both try to move the high off into Europe in about ten days time. I have a feeling however that there are many twists and turns before it happens...
  3. casparjack
    I'm not convinced that Sunday will pan out quite as shown in the T120 FAX, it seems so far off everything else, but you never know. I suspect that the position of the 528 might be an oversight and that in actual fact we could end up with a significant Southern snowfall. We'll have to wait and see in the morning sadly!!
  4. casparjack
    I saw that earlier and discounted it as it looked so out of kilter with the -24 chart for Saturday... That's a huge move in 24 hrs, bin it?
  5. casparjack
    Here it is in panel form for the run... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ecmpanel1.gif
  6. casparjack
    Yes, it does look that way, seems as if the M4 tomorrow morning will be a no go area... Absolutely fascinating, just trying to track developments today has been amazing, just goes to show how small the differences can be and in situations like this how very small changes have a huge impact to events at ground level. Can't wait for the next instalment!
  7. casparjack
    Maybe I missed a few comments earlier, but just seen the 12z T+24 FAX, it looks like not much will change, the secondary front is still only just South of the Bristol Channel, somewhere overnight is going to get buried, though the radar at the moment looks odd, can't quite see where the evolution is coming from, is anyone around to fill in the gaps in my knowledge?
  8. casparjack
    ...not sure yet, the Satellite image appears to have it moving SW at the moment, that can't be correct... However, if one looks again at the 12z analysis chart and then compares the latest radar and satellite images, maybe the centre has moved/transferred SW?
  9. casparjack
    Not if you look at the latest radar on NW, I would say they had it nailed three hours ago, it currently runs up from the Bay of Biscay, makes land fall at Bournemouth and tails off mid way between Hereford and Oxford. The feature off the coast of Wales is the 'one to watch' now I suspect...
  10. casparjack
    Looking at the radar, there appears to be some development off the Welsh coast near Fishguard, it really seems to have wrapped around in the last hour or so. This doesn't appear to accord with the latest FAX chart, the 12z analysis, as this has a centre more to the NE of this. In Herefordshire we are now in virtually still air with 50% cloud cover. Last snow was around 12pm, temp now falling again from a high of 0.9c. As you say everything appears to have stalled at the moment - fascinating!!
  11. casparjack
    This is the latest plotted chart that I can find, for 17:00 hrs. Shows some CuNim, might indicate a bit of activity, heavy snow showers into Lerwick and sub zero, the front is definitely running into cold air, so we will have to hope that as per the earlier FAX chart the 'warmer' air gets mixed out and pushed West into the Atlantic. I did read the replies above...
  12. casparjack
    I think you might be right, if you look at the 16:00 hrs reports from the Highlands, Aviemore (228m AMSL) and Loch Glascarnoch (265m AMSL) have heavy cloud and light rain, together with temperatures clsoe to 0c or just above. We will have to hope that the cold air undercuts more by the time it gets South or we could end up with a bit of a hit and miss situation? I am going to see if I can find some better synoptic reports to support this one way or the other...
  13. casparjack
    Also referring to the latest FAX chart that you posted a little earlier, it looks to me as if the 'warm' sector has been consistently moved West in the past 24/36 hours, it now doesn't appear to even touch West Wales. This might also have led to initial thoughts of sleet and freezing rain rather than snow...
  14. casparjack
    I agree, everything I have looked at tonight (in the reliable timeframe) looks superb... Seems that many people wouldn't be happy unless glaciers were being predicted to start running along the M4 towards London!! Let's just enjoy it, as many have said, it will be a very long time before we see these synoptics again - in the +24 to +96 range.
  15. casparjack
    Sleet/wet snow here again, temp down to 1.3c and falling very slowly, 850s are still around -1 though, so I don't think it's the real cold yet, if you look though the gradient to the colder air is very sharp just to our NE, so hopefully not long. I suspect we will get a little more snow overnight and the thaw should stop.
  16. casparjack
    Really - where?
  17. casparjack
    Yes, it does look like it at the moment, again though it all depends on how far North the system advances before slipping away, GFS has it further N again, ECM has it further S, somewhere in between I guess, just like this time, though not as far N as yesterday and we will have colder air, both surface and uppers by then, so less tendency for it to start as rain or turn back to sleet/rain at lower levels...
  18. casparjack
    Too right, on the margin of marginal, back to rain again here now...
  19. casparjack
    Yes, but to be fair they did forecast between 10 and 30cms of snow yesterday too!!
  20. casparjack
    Snowing again here now, very wet flakes, but it is snow. Temp back down to 1.5c, dewpoint 1.3c though...
  21. casparjack
    We've had drizzle with the occasional snow flake mixed in all morning, temp now risen to 1.7c from a low of 0.2c at 5.24am... Still got lying snow, 2-3cms, but very wet and melting slowly.
  22. casparjack
    This will surely give some 'back edge' snow to Southern areas, not much, but enough to be going on with...
  23. casparjack
    I'm not saying it got it absolutely 100% correct, none of the models did. However, what it did do is carry the system further North than the others (I know it ovedid the intensity of the Low). Anyway, whatever it's done now - we should be looking ahead, not picking the bones out of yesterday...
  24. casparjack
    I have to say I agree, despite variations as the event neared, I feel that the GFS did indeed call the system further North and more marginal than the others - just as it happened in the end...
  25. casparjack
    ...anyway, looking ahead, I see the latest FAX has the rubbish moving SE more quickly, which must be a good sign? 528 a good 100-150 miles further south than on the previous run...
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