casparjack

As ever yes, but I think we could all see it was going to be a marginal based on the lack of initial cold air. A classic 70s/80s, you never quite know, as you say the next one could easily be the other way round. I for one am sitting pretty having told all my mates (many farmers) to ignore the MetO warnings as I felt they were over the top, but still disappointed as I would have quite liked to look out now on 25cms of blowing snow, rather than wet grass with a few patches of melting slush...

I accept that a warning is exactly that, however a 'panic stations' MetO renewed detailing upto 25cms of disruptive snow issued at 13.56 for my area when it was already clear from synoptic conditions monitored at my station and radar that it just wasn't going to happen has to draw a question or two... The wrong area to debate this, but you did respond, sorry.

TEITS, sorry, I normally agree with the majority of what you say, but if you look at my earlier post, GFS was spot on for what has happened here today, MetO warnings of upto 30cms of snow and major disruption, whereas in reality we have had 5cms of wet snow at best that fell in three hours late this afternoon and has all but melted and it's now drizzling... Yes it does, the whole event further North and East, just as GFS suggested?

I might have missed a discussion earlier, but what on earth happened today? I always felt that the FAX charts had the situation nailed with the 528 up into Southern Scotland, but the MetO insisted on giving hysterical warnings of feet of snow for my area, all we had was rain until 3pm then a three hour burst of heavy wet snow, now it's drizzling. I know this is somewhat off topic, but reluctantly, I am giving the much rubbished GFS (me included) a bit of a pat on the back, I think it called it really well, everything has gone much further North with a more influential warm sector? Shoot me down if you like!!?

I have to say as I sit here with my 5cms of very wet, now melting snow and light drizzle, (no wind either), this has to be one of the most overhyped warnings from the 'wow be careful mob' that I can ever remember. What happened to the 50cms of snow in upland areas of the Welsh Marches and upland Mid Wales. I was always sceptical due to the lack of cold air North of the system, but despite years of experience I was prepared, yet again to wait and see.. Oh well, back to the 'Model Discussion Thread'!!

I am a little concerned that we might see rain/sleet tomorrow before the front starts to push SE again, I am on the same latitude as you I suspect, what's your altitude? ps... just noticed your altitude I think, 305m 'about' [sic] sea level?

Snow still falling heavily, temp now zero, dewpoint -0.5c, little wind though. Probably 5cms lying now...

Heavy snow falling here now, temp 0.2c and dewpoint -0.4c, settling on all surfaces, even the wet roads, got around 1cm at present...

Heavy snow here now, at last, but very wet flakes and still 1.2c with dewpoint just above zero - not looking good despite latest updated warning.

It looks like the first warm front has stopped there, we need the more intense precipitation onthe second front to reinforce now and drop the temperatures to get a transition to sleet/snow.

We need the heavier precipitation from the second front, the first was always going to be weak, but it has obviously been delayed by the cold air 'standing its ground'...

About 550 ft, the Midlands thread isn't any good, too much focus on built up areas, I am a few miles from the Welsh border...

Temperature dropped to 1.6c here now and sleeting, wind's getting up too now...

Not a drop or a flake of anything here yet, just a gusty East wind and 2.1c, the radar is showing sleet, but we are dry?

one word - Deja vu That's two words!!

Having risen a little earlier, the temperature is falling once again, down to 0.4c, but the pressure is pretty steady, anyone further SW experiencing falls in pressure yet?

To be fair TEITS, even 1947 didn't deliver severe blizzards every day, I get the distinct impression that a sizeable majority on here don't actually understand what on earth is going on and simply want to know whether it's going to snow!! Oh well, for the rest of us, let's just enjoy the development of the situation and try to get a hint of what might happen over the next 48 to 72 hours...

I'm looking at this analysis chart and thinking that things might be slightly more advanced... The temperature here has hovered around 0.5c all day and at around 3pm started to fall reaching 0.1c at about 5pm, it has now started to rise quite steadily and is now 0.5c and rising, upper air temps have risen too according to the NW 850s on the radar. Light ENE wind and fairly steady pressure though, gut feeling is that it will start as rain here overnight...

I think it's facinating how the GFS has slowly retreated back to the default setting as shown by the Euro models...

2.0c will do for me... Love the thought, but it just can't happen, Gordon wouldn't let it!!

It looks to me like the first one has the low further North and deeper, 980 mb, where the second one has it futher SW and not so deep? As you say without supporting charts either side it's difficult to make a judgement. Having grown up in Shropshire during the late 70s and early 80s, I know exactly what you mean, I can remember a similar event when wet snow fell in huge flakes all day then only started to settle in the mid afternoon. Wish my memory was better.

I think that is absolutely spot on and exactly what I am doing for the first part of the set-up. When the front starts to retreat I will begin to look out of the window again...

The Control looks good, I'll take that...

...yeah, but look where the 528 is, Scotland on the earlier runs. We are not guaranteed snow to start with if that verifies.

I know I'm not officially in Wales, but I am very close, less than five miles, so I feel that my weather is almost invariably influenced by what happend to my West rather than the East. My feeling is that at just over 500 ft amsl, that I might have to wait until Wednesday before I see any snow that will settle, then it could get interesting...