casparjack

I agree it's all about the underlying trends, rather than eye candy charts in FI at this stage and if you want more cold/snow it seems to be heading in the right direction again.

The ECM this morning initially showed some promise I thought, at T120... Then at T144 it seems to be trying to put in place the building blocks for the renewed Easterly... Then it all flounders beyond that and looks disturbingly wet and westerly (if like me you want renewed cold/snow), but hey let's be positive, that's FI isn't it, so it'll never verify!!

That's the first time I've heard the term 'faux cold' this term, bad sign I think, or maybe I just haven't been paying attention. The 12z ECM just continues the tantalising High, it appears to decline from 1065mbs to around 1050mbs out in FI, T196 to T240, but does anyone else think the evolution of a 960 low W of Iceland spinning off SWs holds some potential?

..not to mention, that in time with the correct alignment of the various other factors coming together we may well see an intensification of the cold air with uppers and surface temperatures moving to favour cold.

Quite simply it means neither one thing or the other. The influence from the continental high pressure is sufficient to repel/deflect the Atlantic depressions, but not quite powerful enough to exert its full influence over our weather, i.e. the much discussed 'Easterly'. The result is that we are stuck in a slack flow, often from a cold near continent with damp, cloudy conditions, light S/SE/ or E/SE winds and very little diurnal temperature variance. Hope that helps...

I have to say, much as I dislike the consequences, the stuck in the middle nothingness looks favourite to me at the moment - sadly.

Can you tell me then, as no one else seems to know for certain?

No that's balanced scientific analysis - if it shows cold!! Balmy I think is more appropriate!! That isn't too different from the ECM in its latter stages... I too share your concerns tonight, the ECM was a major disappointment, I was really expecting it to confirm what my 'gut' was telling me, but it couldn't have been more different. Anyway, let's see what the 00z says in the morning...

What's also very apparent is the large swathe of -5/-6c to the East, not far away...

The ECM isn't quite what I expected, though all the ingrediaents are there for renewed cold, just not in quite the right place. The T192 chart looks as if it is just about to get things sorted, then we have T216 and T240 to go and spoil it all. However, both charts look odd to me, 1050+ mb high pressure being squeezed out by a puny little low, I don't think so really. The Azores high is trying to link with the Scandi and seems to achieve it, but we are on the wrong side of the fence. I suspect that as ever as it is FI the reality will be very different - though to be fair if it was showing us -15c uppers and a straight roaring Easterly from central Russia I probably wouldn't have said the last bit...

I know it'll be deleted, but WTH, sorry mods!! Because when it shows a return to cold it is a much more reliable model!!

I'm really liking the 00Z ECM today, by T168 we really seem to be pulling in an Easterly, by T192 it looks good, beyond T216 (I know it's FI) seems to be pulling in the cold uppers again. Let's hope...

I'll take 3, 4, 7 and 16 please Sir!! I remain convinced that we will see a trend towards a colder evolution in the next 48/72 hrs, I feel that if the Atlantic was going to roar back in there would be solid model agreement and it just isn't there.

I know it's deep FI, but the evolution from T+216 to T+240 just looks wrong to me, too much seems to happen in 24 hours? Anyone else?

As much as I can get!! I agree, I think there is a definite hint already from the GFS that it may not be a straightforward collapse, eagerly awaited ECM 12z (as ever).

I think the point about surface cold being embedded is very relevant, my 30cm soil sensor is at 1.1c under 15cms of powder snow, the lowest ever, that is an awful lot of locked in cold for the Atlantic to handle even if it does get in for a few days. I did a comparison of the three main models earlier at T+144, at first glance they all looked quite similar, but on further consideration the UKMO looked the most progressive bringing in the low, as has been said on here many times before, what a shame it doesn't go to T+168 as thjat might hold the key to where we go after that... Guess we'll have to wait until later/tomorrow - as ever!!

Don't be a spoil sport why not!!?

I agree, I think what everyone must remember is that the 'change' shown is still ages away, even in normal forecast conditions, let alone an unusual set like this. Sure of course we will have a reversion to Atlantic weather at some point, I for one have the feeling that there may well be a great deal more in this yet to come. It is just as likely that in 48 hours time we will be looking at a completely different scenario again. Also as you say the Channel low could well deliver yet more interest!

To be fair those 4c temps are along the South and SE coast, the inland figures are more akin to what we might expect from the 'cold flow' off the continent. We do need more of an Easterlt element though to maintain the cold.

I am rather surprised at this. Frankly we can't influence the weather as you know, so whatever the reactions it will not change the reality, we all have to deal with it and endure as best we can - there is nothing wrong with enjoying the synoptics and appreciating them. I run a business and have a family to support, so I know only too well how tough it can be.

It does look rather flabby as you say, however, don't you think that it is often modelled that way when a clear signal is absent? Just as now when they are struggling for real direction beyond about T144.

It wasn't Shawbury, it was recorded at Harper Adams Agricultural College in Newport, Shropshire. Shawbury was -25c that night.

In my defence, it was a comment at the end of my reply, then I answered a direct question. It is also relevant to the discussion as the CET thread is largely dead, whereas we are now at a critical point and surely the model thread has a direct correlation with the ultimate CET figure, which many people find interesting? Well I do anyway...

The last sub zero month was Feb 1986 (-1.1c), the last sub zero Jan was 1979 (-0.4c). Jan 1963 was -2.1c, so a bit to go for that!

I have to say I agree with the scenario in broad terms. Not sure of the detail, but I just feel that we have already seen a clear demonstration of an entrenched pattern and the ECM have so far been largely close to the main theme, I go with them to have called it right... Sub zero CET for January anyone?